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Welcome to the Week 11 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 11 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Derek Carr, LVR vs. CIN | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $28
Carr faces a Bengals team that's allowing 260.3 passing yards per game, as well as a 67.3 percent completion rate and an elevated 12.3 yards per completion over the last three games. Cincy also ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA and explosive pass play rate allowed, while Carr, despite the Raiders' last two losses, has still thrown for 296 and 261 yards in those contests and is averaging a career-high 8.1 yards per attempt for the season.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at JAC | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $23
Garoppolo has turned up his play in recent weeks, posting back-to-back 300-yard efforts in Weeks 8 and 9 before completing a season-high 78.9 percent of his passes and throwing two touchdowns in Week 10 against the Rams. The veteran has six total touchdowns over the last three games when factoring in his two rushing scores back in Week 8 against the Bears, and he now faces a Jaguars defense that's ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA while allowing an AFC-high 72.3 percent completion rate at home. The Jags have been much better in the secondary over the last three contests, but Garoppolo has a healthy array of weapons with which to attack and could be forced to the air more due to the 49ers' multiple injuries at running back.
ALSO CONSIDER: Cam Newton, CAR vs. WAS | DK: $5,100, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $26
Running Back DFS Value Plays
A.J. Dillon, GB at MIN | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $20
Dillon was a hit as Aaron Jones' replacement in Week 10 once the latter went down with the knee injury that will keep him out Week 11. Dillon recorded 128 total yards and two rushing touchdowns and now will have a chance to operate as the lead back from the start of the game against a Vikings defense that's allowed a robust 4.7 yards per carry and 130.6 rushing yards per game, including 135.7 per contest in the last three. As per Football Outsiders, Minnesota also notably ranks in the bottom four of the league in stuffing runs at or behind the line of scrimmage and against power runs, something that's particularly relevant when considering Dillon's elite 15.5 percent broken-tackle rate and 74.1 percent of yards gained after contact.
Mark Ingram II, NO at PHI | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $19
Ingram will have a chance at another solid workload with Alvin Kamara (knee) once again sidelined in Week 11. The veteran gained 101 total yards and a rushing TD on 18 total touches in Week 10 against the Titans, and he'd be in a position for an even better return Sunday against a more giving Eagles run defense. Philadelphia ranks 20th in rush defense DVOA and has allowed 127.0 rush yards per home game, along with the fourth-most receptions (68) to running backs overall.
ALSO CONSIDER: Darrel Williams, KC vs. DAL | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $15
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Brandin Cooks, HOU at TEN | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $18
Cooks saw a whopping 13 targets in Tyrod Taylor's first game back under center in Week 9, and with a bye week to further develop chemistry with his veteran quarterback, the speedster could be in for another busy and perhaps more efficient day in Week 11. The Titans have allowed 267.4 passing yards per game overall, along with an NFL-high 162 receptions and 2,127 receiving yards to wideouts and 14 receiving touchdowns to the position as well.
Christian Kirk, ARI at SEA | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $16
DeAndre Hopkins has already been ruled out for Sunday's game with his hamstring injury, setting Kirk up for No. 2 receiver duties again alongside A.J. Green. Filling that role against the Panthers in Week 10, Kirk put together a 7-58 line on eight targets with Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler as his QBs. He was even more efficient with a 6-91 tally on six targets the week prior without Hopkins as well, and Sunday, he'll get a crack at a Seahawks team allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (278.8) and ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA.
Michael Gallup, DAL at KC | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $15
Amari Cooper will miss Sunday's game while on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and there will undoubtedly be plenty to flocking to fellow wideout CeeDee Lamb as a result. However, Gallup makes for an excellent cost-savings pivot or complement to Lamb in lineups and checks in having put together a solid 3-42 line on five targets against the Falcons in his first game action since Week 1. Gallup is now naturally set for a significant bump in volume with Cooper out and will be facing a Chiefs defense that has played better against the pass over the last three games, but that's still giving up 260.2 passing yards per contest at home while ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in explosive pass play rate allowed (11%).
ALSO CONSIDER: Brandon Aiyuk, SF at JAC | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $16
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Zach Ertz, ARI at SEA | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $17
Ertz has put together a 7-73 line on 11 targets in the last two games without DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) available, and he'll be in the same scenario Sunday. The veteran tight end could also have Kyler Murray (ankle) back at his disposal and faces a Seahawks team that's allowed a robust 50-439-3 line to the position. Ertz could also continue enjoying an expanding red-zone presence in Arizona after garnering three looks inside the 20 over his first four games, giving him another path to offering a strong return on his very reasonable salaries.
Dawson Knox, BUF vs. IND | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $20
Knox's salary is particularly appealing on DK, but he could make for an excellent bargain across the board against a Colts team that's allowed the third-most receptions to TEs (60), along with the sixth-most receiving yards (611) and third-most receiving TDs (6) to the position. Knox's two-game absence due to a hand injury and his quiet 1-17 line upon returning in Week 10 should also serve to keep him off the radar a good bit for tournaments, furthering his appeal for a game that could be very competitive.
ALSO CONSIDER: Cole Kmet, CHI vs. BAL | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $15
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