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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Rams vs. Bengals showdown slate on 9/25/2023. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article of the year! How exciting of a time is it? I hope your team saw great success yesterday, as we all want to kick back, relax, and enjoy this Super Bowl 56 rematch as the Los Angeles Rams (1-1) head to Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (0-2).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Rams vs. Bengals NFL DFS showdown slate on September 25. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Joe Burrow - QB, $17,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 304 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, one interception.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: -11.42%
I'll start things off with Joe Burrow in this one. Burrow has no doubt had a difficult start to 2023, leading to jokes and memes at his expense and correlating his poor performance to getting a large contract, where it seems it's actually an injury issue. Nevertheless, it's do-or-die time for Burrow and the Bengals as they look to prevent an 0-3 start. My model projects Burrow to complete 71.05% of his passes for 245.67 yards and 1.72 touchdowns. It'll be a solid bounce-back opportunity against a Rams defense that ranks 22nd in defensive pass DVOA.
Matthew Stafford - QB, $15,300 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 641 passing yards, one passing touchdown, two interceptions.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 54.21%
I'll take a look at the quarterback on the other side of the field here, Matthew Stafford. My model projects the veteran to throw for 249.3 yards and 1.61 touchdowns here. Stafford has also struggled in 2023 to this point but is similarly looking down the barrel of a bounce-back performance against a Bengals defense that ranks 25th in defensive pass DVOA early on in the 2023 season. Let's see if he still has a bit more Super Bowl magic in him.
Other Captains/MVPs: Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon
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DFS Flex Plays
Puka Nacua - WR, $10,000 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 35 targets, 25 receptions, 266 receiving yards.
I'll take a look at everyone's fantasy darling Puka Nacua here. Trust me, you weren't the person who "told everyone" that they should draft him. Nevertheless, my model projects Nacua to catch 5.27 of his 7.89 targets for 64.39 yards and 0.35 touchdowns. He should work a lot of times out of the slot, where he's worked out 45.3% of the time through the first two weeks. The Bengals have allowed the second-most targets and third-most receptions and yards out of the slot so far this year. Expect another big night from Puka.
Joe Mixon - RB, $8,400 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 26 carries, 115 rushing yards, 10 targets, seven receptions, 53 receiving yards.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 14.87%
I think the Bengals will really be able to get after things both in the air and on the ground here. The Bengals' run-blocking unit should be able to get a nice push and open a lot of space for Mixon against this Rams defense that comes into this one ranked 30th in defensive rushing DVOA (18.28%). My model projects Mixon to tote the rock just under 15 times for 62.23 yards while hauling in 3.01 receptions for 24.48 yards. He also projects to have 0.53 touchdowns, and he has a very real chance of being the highest-scoring player on what should be an offense-heavy slate.
Other Flex Options: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Kyren Williams
DFS Value Plays
Tyler Higbee - TE, $6,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 10 targets, six receptions, 61 receiving yards.
I'll take a look at Tyler Higbee here. Higbee gets a solid matchup as the Bengals bring in a 39.67% DVOA against the tight end position in 2023. My model projects Higbee for 3.84 receptions on 5.4 targets for 33.48 receiving yards and 0.25 touchdowns. Despite this, he's one of my favorite bets for a touchdown in this game, and my favorite "value" play by far. I know he's a bit more expensive than your standard value play, but I do like him here and he will have a ton of exposure.
Brett Maher - K, $4,000 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 6/8 FGM/FGA, 5/5 XPM/XPA.
I'll wrap things up with Brett Maher. Everyone remembers Maher in the postseason in 2022, but it seems like he's done well to bounce back out in "La La Land". I think the Bengals could tighten things up on their side of the field, making a solid opportunity for Maher to gather some stats (and fantasy points). We don't have much in terms of "value options" on this slate, so we'll take what we can get.
Other Value Plays: Evan McPherson, Tyler Boyd, Van Jefferson
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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