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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Packers vs. Giants showdown slate on 12/11/2023. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article, as we have a double-decker of games tonight. We've got a couple of teams on win streaks duking it out tonight as Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers (6-6) head into the Meadowlands to take on Tommy Devito and the Giants (4-8).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Giants NFL DFS showdown slate on December 11. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Saquon Barkley - RB, $16,800 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 165 rushing attempts, 697 rushing yards, 40 targets, 28 receptions, 168 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -22.63%
I'll start things off on the New York side of things with Saquon Barkley. Tonight, Barkley projects to 80.58 rushing yards on 18 carries as well as 20.71 receiving yards on 3.14 receptions (4.72 targets) and 0.62 total touchdowns. The Giants have not been able to do much on the ground this season, but are done for some minor positive regression here (1.75%) against the Packers' 23rd-ranked rushing defense. For what it's worth, the Packers also rank 15th against running backs in the passing game.
Romeo Doubs - WR, $13,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 74 targets, 45 receptions, 505 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 17.29%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Romeo Doubs. Doubs hasn't made a ton of noise this season, but if nothing else, he's been consistently efficient. He's also found his way into the end zone quite a few times, as noted above. He has a very strong matchup against the Giants' defense tonight, who struggle against WR1s. Doubs projects to 5.98 receptions on 6.51 targets for 67.48 receiving yards and 0.41 touchdowns tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed
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DFS Flex Plays
Jordan Love - QB, $11,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,866 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, ten interceptions, 39 rushing attempts, 231 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 24.55%
Throwing Doubs the ball will be Jordan Love. Love has taken a step forward, especially in these last three weeks. Not only have Love and the Packers come away with three straight wins against the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs, respectively, but Love has also thrown for 857 yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions in that span. Tonight, Love projects to 248.42 passing yards and 11.84 rushing yards. He also projects to throw 1.55 touchdowns, while running another 0.19 in.
Green Bay Packers - D/ST, $6,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20.25 points allowed per game, 29 sacks, six interceptions, seven fumble recoveries, and two defensive touchdowns.
I'll take a look at the Packers defense. Despite their price, I can't see how Tommy Devito and the New York Giants keep this up. To be fair, they only scored 10 points last week after scoring 31 against Washington in Week 11. Despite Jaire Alexander being ruled out for tonight's game, the Giants' offense still projects to regress in the passing game. That's likely because the Pack project a whopping 43.28% pressure rate and 16.36% sack rate.
Other Flex Options: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Jalin Hyatt, Jayden Reed
DFS Value Plays
Dontayvion Wicks - WR, $5,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 36 targets, 23 receptions, 374 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'Other' WR: -7.83%
I'll take a look at Dontayvion Wicks next. While Wicks doesn't have as strong of a matchup as Romeo Doubs, I like him in this spot. Wicks projects to 2.64 receptions on 4.83 targets for 41.02 receiving yards and 0.2 touchdowns. For what it's worth, the Giants rank 19th in receptions allowed and 29th in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers who line up on the right side of the field, where Wicks lines up most of the time.
Daniel Bellinger - TE, $3,600 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 15 targets, 13 receptions, 145 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 14.17%
I'll wrap things up with Daniel Bellinger. Given the numbers outlining the Packers' pass rush in this one, Tommy DeVito will likely need a safety blanket. I'm sure the Giants would like to get Bellinger more targets, and that could start tonight. My model projects him to catch 2.98 of his 4.56 targets for 24.09 yards and 0.22 touchdowns. It's a lot to ask, but I really could see Bellinger finding the end zone tonight against this Packers defense that ranks 26th in DVOA against the position.
Other Value Plays: Anders Carlson, Tucker Kraft
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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