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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have what could be a fun matchup tonight as the Green Bay Packers (5-6) look to keep things rolling following back-to-back wins against the Chargers and Lions, respectively. They'll head to Arrowhead to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (8-3).
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Chiefs Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on December 3. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Isiah Pacheco - RB, $18,000 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 158 rushing attempts, 669 rushing yards, 34 targets, 30 receptions, 196 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -5.22%
I'll start things off today with Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is projected to be the second-highest scorer on tonight's slate, aside from Patrick Mahomes tonight. Pacheco is projected to run the ball 14.58 times for 72.78 yards while adding 2.15 receptions, 13.83 receiving yards and 0.7 touchdowns. While the DVOA matchup isn't necessarily there for Pacheco, the Chiefs should see some positive regression on inside zones and running through the gaps, which fits Pacheco's running style well here.
Travis Kelce - TE, $16,800 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 88 targets, 70 catches, 732 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 7.37%
I'll take a look at Travis Kelce next. I'm not necessarily fading the two quarterbacks here, I'm just looking at other options that I think can give us a leg up here. Kelce projects to 5.98 receptions on 8.18 targets for 74.25 receiving yards and 0.58 touchdowns. Green Bay comes into this one ranked 22nd in DVOA against the position, and while Kelce is having a rather down season by his standards, I could see him having a huge night tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, AJ Dillon, Jayden Reed
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DFS Flex Plays
Jayden Reed - WR, $8,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Seven rushing attempts, 81 rushing yards, 59 targets, 36 receptions, 497 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 9.7%
I'll take a look at potentially one of the NFL's rising stars today. Reed has played exceptionally over the last three weeks. He's seen 19 targets in those three games and is doing work both in the passing and running games. Tonight, he projects to 3.39 receptions on 5.83 targets for 38.18 yards. I don't have any rushing stats projected for him here, but I can see him getting work out of the backfield and making Kansas City pay, particularly in the second level and the open field. Reed also projects to 0.25 touchdowns tonight, discounting any potential rushing stats. Reed was banged up early in the week but returned to practice Thursday.
AJ Dillon - RB, $10,000 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 131 rushing attempts, 448 rushing yards, 24 targets, 19 receptions, 184 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -11.09%
Carrying over what I was saying about Jayden Reed and the run game, I'll say much of the same about AJ Dillon. The Chiefs' defense currently ranks 27th in rushing DVOA (-0.68%) and while Green Bay's projected DVOA in the run game isn't great, they do project to positively regress by 4.93% in that aspect. Dillon projects to 52.27 yards on the ground on 13.1 carries, while adding another 10.93 yards on 1.83 receptions through the air.
Other Flex Options: Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, Rashee Rice
DFS Value Plays
Kansas City Chiefs - D/ST, $5,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 15.73 points per game allowed, 37 sacks, six interceptions, eight fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
While I think that Green Bay should be able to move the ball relatively effectively in this one, I don't foresee them putting up many points. They project negative regression through the air, despite Jordan Love playing very well lately. Getting passes off may be a challenge for Jordan Love in this one also. Kansas City projects to pressure Love at a 32.91% clip here, as well as converting sacks on roughly 9.18% of dropbacks.
Anders Carlson - K, $4,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 19 field goals attempted, 15 field goals made, 20 extra points made, 23 extra points attempted
I'll wrap things up with somewhat of a correlation play here, taking a look at Anders Carlson. Carlson has been fine in 2023, but I do think the Packers are expecting a bit more from the rookie going forward. Tonight could be a big spot for a step forward. If Green Bay has any path to win this game, it'll be up to the Packers' defense to keep them in the game, and Carlson to knock down a few big kicks.
Other Value Options: Justin Watson, Harrison Butker, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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