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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have what could be a fun matchup tonight as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (10-3) head down south to take on Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5). This is a massive game in terms of positioning in the AFC playoff hunt, so we should be in store for a good one.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jaguars vs. Ravens Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on December 17. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Lamar Jackson - QB, $18,600 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,934 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 123 rushing attempts, 644 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, and six fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 13.43%
I'll be starting things off for this Sunday night showdown with Lamar Jackson. The Jacksonville defense has been really good this season to be sure, but I think Lamar has himself a night tonight. He projects to 245.67 passing yards and 1.49 passing touchdowns while adding 55.27 rushing yards and 0.39 touchdowns on the ground as well. I think it's extremely likely that Lamar finds the end zone with his legs tonight against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 25th in rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
Calvin Ridley - WR, $12,900 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Eight rushing attempts, 35 rushing yards, 97 targets, 55 receptions, 742 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 0.19%
I'll go to the other side of the field and take a look at Calvin Ridley next. The Jags will be going into this one without their "1B" to Ridley, as Christian Kirk will miss some time following a gruesome injury to the groin area. So I'll look to back Ridley here, who projects to 5.67 receptions on 8.73 targets for 58.21 yards and 0.37 touchdowns. It's tough to back anyone at any position really against this Baltimore defense, but I think Jacksonville's offense runs through Ridley this evening.
Other Captains/MVPs: Evan Engram, Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers
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DFS Flex Plays
Evan Engram - TE, $7,600 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 103 targets, 84 receptions, 701 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -5.31%
I'll take a look at another Jacksonville pass-catcher tonight in Evan Engram. Engram projects 4.72 receptions on 6.96 targets for 45.3 receiving yards and 0.27 touchdowns. The Jaguars offensive line is due for some regression tonight; allowing a projected 36.09% pressure rate and 9.14% sack rate. It's no surprise given that Baltimore ranks in the top five in pressures and sack rate across the league this season. I'll look for Engram to be a quality safety blanket for Trevor Lawrence here.
Isaiah Likely - TE, $6,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 25 targets, 18 receptions, 212 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 1.1%
I'll go double-tight end in the flex spot as I take a look at Isaiah Likely. Likely has done a solid job in Mark Andrews's absence catching nine of his 13 targets for 123 receiving yards and a touchdown in the two games where Andrews didn't start. Tonight, he projects to: 5.43 targets, 3.42 receptions, 34.82 receiving yards, and 0.34 touchdowns. The Jags are solid against the tight end position, ranking 16th in DVOA, but have struggled against the position across the last four weeks.
Other Flex Options: Odell Beckham Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., Trevor Lawrence
DFS Value Plays
Zay Jones - WR, $5,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 47 targets, 23 receptions, 215 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: -29.12%
I'll wrap things up on the Jacksonville side with a third pass-catcher: Zay Jones. Now, depending on how I'm making my lineups, I most likely will not be playing all three of these guys. However, I may run a handful of "Trevor Lawrence + two of" Ridley, Engram, and Jones. Jones projects to 3.9 receptions on 6.98 targets for 40.01 yards and 0.24 touchdowns. It isn't much, and he's not in a great matchup, but as WR2 with the way I feel this game will go, I think Jones is a solid option given his price.
Rashod Bateman - WR, $4,200 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 40 targets, 24 receptions, 260 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. Other WR: 9.71%
I'll wrap things up with Rashod Bateman here. Bateman has had a quiet year two after a breakout rookie campaign before his injury. This of course has a lot to do with the emergence of rookie receiver Zay Jones, who has taken a massive step as we've progressed through the 2023 season. I'll be on Bateman here though, as my model projects him to grab 2.6 of 4.17 targets for 34.18 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. He's just too cheap for his potential value, so I'll be heavy on him in this spot.
Other Value Options: Keaton Mitchell, Justin Tucker, Ravens D/ST
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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