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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Chargers vs. Colts showdown slate on 12/26. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Christmas/holiday went well! We're back at it for another Monday Night Football game as the Chargers (8-6) head into Indianapolis to take on the Colts (4-9-1). The Chargers are looking to keep their playoff spot locked up, while the Colts are making a change at quarterback, starting Nick Foles. Foles is a Philadelphia legend and will forever be a hero in my eyes thanks to his heroic performance in Super Bowl LII. Let's see if "Saint Nick" still has some magic left in the tank.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chargers vs. Colts NFL DFS showdown slate on December 26th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Justin Herbert - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,019 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 2.5% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.5% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Justin Herbert. I was actually quite surprised at some of the matchup numbers here, but I guess you could make the argument that the Colts' defense is "kind of" good. That is unless you watched the second half of that game against the Vikings last weekend. Nevertheless, the Chargers have a strong passing funnel in this matchup and my model projects Herbert to complete 67.37% of his passes for 266.44 yards and 1.94 touchdowns.
Austin Ekeler - RB, $16,500 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 165 rushing attempts, 692 rushing yards, 115 targets, 95 receptions, 635 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -15.2% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -11.1% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll take a look at Austin Ekeler next. As I just mentioned above, the Chargers have a funnel that would lean towards their passing game, but I don't think anyone necessarily considers Austin Ekeler a "natural" running back. While I do project him for 60.31 rushing yards on the ground, I also have him projected to catch 5.17 of his 5.73 targets for 40.93 yards and an 82% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Nick Foles, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman Jr.
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DFS Flex Plays
Keenan Allen - WR, $9,800 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 58 targets, 42 receptions, 486 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Julian Blackmon): 6% targets per route, 73% catch rate, 0.20 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
We'll go with the trifecta of Chargers here with Keenan Allen. I'm looking at Keenan Allen over Mike Williams in this spot simply because he's the "target monster" of the pair. My model projects him to see 8.97 targets to Williams's 6.96. He's projected to haul in 6.38 of those 8.97 targets for 70.71 yards and a 51% chance of finding the end zone. He also has the best matchup in terms of DVOA of all the Chargers' wide receivers at 8.6%.
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, $8,200 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 121 targets, 86 receptions, 815 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Asante Samuel Jr.): 18% targets per route, 60% catch rate, 0.31 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll look at Michael Pittman Jr. Just as I mentioned with Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman Jr. is the target monster on the Colts' side of things. This could be a "Philly" bias here, and I'm sure it is, but I do think that the Colts may actually be upgrading at quarterback in this one. While that may not be true, I do tend to think that Foles will add at least an extra bit of juice to the Colts' offense. I have Pittman Jr. projected for 5.41 receptions on 8.11 targets for 58.4 yards and a 33% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Nick Foles, Zack Moss, Mike Williams
DFS Value Plays
Los Angeles Chargers - D/ST, $4,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Projected DVOA%: -27.25%
While I think that Foles could add that juice for Indianapolis, I really don't anticipate them scoring much. While I'll likely avoid having a ton of Colts in any particular lineup, I'll be extremely heavy on the Chargers' defense. I have them projected for a 24% pressure rate and a 7.28% sack rate in this one. Their biggest flaw is their run defense, which shouldn't be too much of an issue with Colts starting running back Jonathan Taylor sidelined.
Gerald Everett - TE, $4,800 (DK), $6,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 79 targets, 52 receptions, 532 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Bobby Okereke): 18% targets per route, 76% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
As is par for the course any time the Chargers play on primetime, I'll take a look at Gerald Everett. The Chargers have a decent projected DVOA when targeting their tight ends (6.1%), and Everett has a strong individual matchup against Bobby Okereke. I have Everett projected for 3.53 receptions on 5.18 targets for 36.7 yards and a 32% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Value Plays: Cameron Dicker, Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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