RADIO
Well, Week 11 wasn't exactly what I was hoping for. Some truly bad reads, especially the over in the Patriots/Jets game. Sometimes you just overthink yourself and what happens is a big fat loss. However, the Raider moneyline hit was a nice boost to my weekend, even if it did take overtime to accomplish.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 14-14, -0.32 units
- Spread: 5-4, +0.35 units
- Total/Team Total: 5-9, -4.81 units
- Moneyline: 3-1, +2.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 12 NFL Betting Picks - Total
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 11/27, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 43.5
Last week was the lowest scoring output that the Ravens have had all season, but they only had one turnover and still put up over 300 yards of offense. Lamar Jackson is an electric playmaker and has his top weapon back in Mark Andrews. As a unit, they average 5.7 yards per play and are slightly better on the road with 6 ypp along with a 27 ppg mark as a visitor. Defensively, this is a big opportunity for them, facing a Jaguars offense that averages 1.3 giveaway per game.
I think many are wondering if Trevor Lawrence is entering bust territory. At 3-7, the Clemson product hasn't been bad but the offense just can't seem to get to that next level. Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk are dynamite playmakers, but if either gets shut down, this offense becomes very anemic. Many expected the defense to better than it has been, but the 31st ranked pass defense, and 15th ranked run defense by DVOA is not a good place to be. Though they did force three turnovers against the Chiefs in Week 11.
Baltimore has shown very capable of putting up 27+ points this season and I think they could easily do that again this week. So this comes down to, if Baltimore hits the 30-point threshold, can Jacksonville register two touchdowns? I think so. Baltimore's defense is good but leaky and prone to giving up big plays. Give me the over all day, especially as it has dropped three points from the opening total.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
Week 12 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4/4.5)
Sunday 11/27, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 40.5
The Falcons might sit at 5-6 and second place in the NFC South, but something has to give soon. They're 2-2 in their L4, but average almost two turnovers per game in that stretch and haven't eclipsed 300 yards in the previous two games. Marcus Mariota is incredibly boring under center and now he just lost the best player on their offense (Kyle Pitts). Cordarelle Patterson is a fine player, but doesn't command a defenses attention. Speaking of defense, Atlanta's isn't good, giving up 6 ypp and ranked 28th overall in DVOA.
It took getting looked over, but Taylor Heinicke is the guy the Commanders need. As the starter, they're 4-1. While it hasn't been pretty, their average point differential in those five games is +4.8. Now their defense is coming into its own, only for Chase Young to be returning (eventually), so things are looking up in D.C.
It seems like these two teams are going in opposite directions. While Atlanta is still playing solid football, Washington clearly the more solid football team at this time. They're at home with a need for a win to stay competitive in the NFC East, I look for Washington to handle Atlanta and cover this spread.
Pick: Washington -4 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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