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Thunder Dan's top NBA prop bets for 1/7/26. Expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges, and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Today brings the biggest NBA slate of games that we've had in a few weeks, with 12 games on the docket in the Association!
I have to give a big shout-out to my guy, Keith Eyster, who has been giving out some great props all season long for us at RotoBaller. The pressure is on to pick some winners anytime that I take the wheel and offer up my top props for the day, but I forced myself to be selective and narrow it down to six player props that offer up a combination of the best value at their odds while also having a high projected hit rate.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Wednesday, January 7th. Prop picks can range from individual stats, such as points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive statistics, to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets and Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- LeBron James over 34.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Kon Knueppel over 17.5 Points
- Ausar Thompson over 5.5 rebounds
- Steven Adams over 7.5 Points
- Miles McBride over 10.5 Points
- Jase Richardson over 8.5 Points
LeBron James over 34.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-105 DraftKings), (-121 Novig)
King James, the ageless wonder, looks as good as ever and has been putting up big numbers for the Lakers while they're dealing with the absence of Austin Reaves. LeBron had an easy 30-8-8 last night in a win over the Pelicans, and did it in just 33 minutes.
There's no time to rest up, as the Lakers head to San Antonio to face a really good Spurs team that got Victor Wembanyama back from injury (he had a 30-burger last night, too).
This is a huge game in the Western Conference, and I expect LeBron and Luka Doncic to show out on the big stage in what should be a close and potentially high-scoring affair.
Without Reaves and Rui Hachimura this season, LeBron has gone over this number four out of five times, averaging 40 PRA in those games.
Kon Knueppel over 17.5 Points (-125 FanDuel), (over 18.5, -105 Novig)
If you haven't had a chance to watch the Charlotte rookie sharpshooter yet, please tune in tonight to see him and the Hornets take on another pretty surprising team in the East -- the Toronto Raptors.
The 8 year vet, Kon Knueppel, had a casual 23 on 8/13 from the field in a win vs the defending champs
After the game hear what the long time NBA player had to say
— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) January 6, 2026
The Hornets are coming off a massive upset of the Thunder and have won two in a row. Arguably, the most consistent player and scorer in Charlotte all season has been Knueppel, who is averaging 19.5 points per game this season and knocking down an impressive four treys per contest.
Knueppel has a 68% hit rate on this points prop this season and has hit the over in nine of his last 10. His shot is pure, and he should get plenty of looks tonight in this one.
Ausar Thompson over 5.5 rebounds (-125 FanDuel), (-135 Novig)
The Pistons are playing without two starters again tonight as Tobias Harris and Jalen Duren are both out. It's been Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed starting in their stead, but it's Thompson who I am eyeing for his rebounds prop tonight, as I think he should continue to help pick up the slack on the boards in the absence of Duren, who averages nearly 10 rebounds per night.
Thompson has seven and eight rebounds in his last two games (with the aforementioned players out), and he did that in just 22 and 20 minutes, respectively. His low minutes last time out were mainly because the Pistons blew out the Knicks, and he didn't play much in the second half.
Thompson averages 26 minutes per game on the season, so if he gets his normal allotment of minutes, I think he blows this prop out of the water, as I have him projected for nearly nine boards tonight.
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Top Value Props and Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies in the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Steven Adams over 7.5 Points (+102 FanDuel), (-101 NOVIG)
Our theme for the lesser-known players today is "players benefitting from the absence of key rotational players." Adams is set to start at center again tonight for the Rockets with Alperen Sengun out, and he has scored at least eight points in three of the four games that Sengun has missed this season.
He's a very low-usage player who relies on a few dunks or offensive rebounds and putbacks for his scoring, so it's always a little risky to bet on him for points. But the bar here is incredibly low, and the matchup is quite good, as Portland allows the third-most points to opposing centers this season.
Miles McBride over 10.5 Points (-112 FanDuel)
Everyone loves a perfect hit rate when looking at a player prop, and that's exactly what we have when it comes to Miles McBride and his points prop tonight. The Knicks will be without Josh Hart once again, and McBride is a perfect six for six on the over at 10.5 points in games where Hart is out, averaging 16.3 points in those contests.
He missed a chunk of games a few weeks ago, but has been great since returning to the rotation, averaging 16.6 points and hitting the over in all five of those games. He's a big part of this rotation right now, playing 25-30 minutes, and has been sizzling from behind the arc, averaging four made threes over his last five games.
Jase Richardson over 8.5 Points (-110 FAN), (over 7.5 Points, -136 NOVIG)
The Magic continue to play without multiple starters and are likely to be without Jalen Suggs again tonight. It was a disappointing outing from Orlando last night as its first unit was thumped by the lowly Washington Wizards; however, one bright spot was the rookie Richardson's play with the second unit.
Jase Richardson at WAS highlights:
20 PTS*
3 AST
7-12 FG
3 3PM
+17 +/-*marked a career-high pic.twitter.com/EpNdbPrlF1
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) January 7, 2026
Richardson now has 12 and 20 points in his last two games and has gone over this prop in three of the five games that he's appeared in when Suggs was out. The minutes lately have been great as he's averaged over 26 minutes per game in his last two. With the Magic on the second half of a back-to-back, look for him to see a similar amount of playing time and continue to get up a lot of shots as their current sixth man and top bench scorer.
NBA Betting Tools and Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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