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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Monday, May 3rd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
In the midst of inconsistencies, the only thing we know for certain Monday is that eight games are on the schedule. Even that is subject to change during these times, but at least teams are getting themselves ready for the playoffs or last-second playoff pushes. Whether they are playing well is beside the point, because if someone like Steph Curry can have a terrible shooting night and still drop 30-points, it's worrisome expecting anyone else to do the same.
Last week, Ja Morant played the Orlando Magic twice, and in both games he had more than his fair share of opportunities. He was only able to capitalize in the second matchup between the two, but seeing how he scored 22-points in a loss, compared to eight points in a win. Morant's status as point guard is further solidified by his lack of demanding the ball. While he can assume high-usage games, that's not what he wants to do. He prefers to find teammates and isolate defenders to open up passing lanes. Against the Knicks defense, however, those lanes will seem clogged more often than not. Morant will need to score if Memphis wants to keep their post-season hopes alive and strong.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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ORL @ DET
Cole Anthony (MEM) MORE 17.5 Points - Saddiq Bey (DET) MORE 17.5 Points
Over the last week, both Cole Anthony and Saddiq Bey are barely averaging above their projected points total. In the first two meetings between these two teams, Bey only scored 21 points across both games. The Pistons aren't relying on any certain source of production and they aren't really 'testing" players either. This might seem like Bey's upside is limited, but along with averaging 17-points over his last three games, he's seeing the most consistent usage he's seen all season. Even if Detroit is just doing the bare minimum to get by, Bey is doing just enough to make the over worthwhile.
Anthony is in a similar boat except his game log backs up the type of upside he projects. As one of the top scoring Magic players over their last few games, Anthony won't slow down against this defense, even if the pace of the game is slower than usual. Both of these teams need offense despite their lack of urgency, so Anthony and Bey will have their work cut out for them as long as they can convert at a decent rate.
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GSW @ NOP
Steph Curry (GSW) MORE 35.5 Points - Zion Williamson (NOP) MORE 27.5
You won't find a point total higher than Steph Curry's tonight. Only Curry can start a game making two of his 15 or so attempts and still find a way to be the most dangerous player on the court. He has the most misleading halftime stats, because no matter how poorly he is playing, scoring 20-25 points in the third quarter alone has become what he's known for. Golden State might still be terrible, but Curry isn't going to let that be the sole reason he can't produce.
For Zion Williamson facing the Warriors frontcourt, the prediction is almost laughable. Williamson is making a mockery of defenses around the league and the amount of points he is scoring is dependent on how long the Pelicans can keep the game close. It might be a long shot for New Orleans to make the playoffs, but Williamson's scoring effort on a nightly basis would make you think they're contending.
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POR @ ATL
Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 26.5 Points - Trae Young (ATL) MORE 23.5
Dealing with adversity for most of the season has taken a toll on Damian Lillard, but not in the way you would expect. He's struggled at times, but averaging 26-points over his last four games, scoring over 30-points once, tacking on a 26-point, 13-assist double-double in his last game versus the Celtics doesn't strike me as struggling. Now that he's facing the Hawks backcourt, it's hard to see him tailing off rather than pouring it out when everyone will be expecting fireworks from both guard rotations.
Trae Young finds himself carrying a few helpful servings of momentum heading into Monday, scoring 30-points in both of his first two games back after a four-game absence. Young is known for his high-scoring nights, but for most of the season, Young's stats have been underwhelming while the Atlanta Hawks themselves have been one of the more feared teams in the league. As the engine to this offense, their success and failures start with Young and end with him shooting or him passing out to a shooter. Between the Hawks and Trail Blazers, guard production is a fairly safe bet.
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NYK @ MEM
Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 23.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 19.5 Points
Ja Morant has burned more than a few prop bettors this season and it hasn't been the defense that is the deciding factor. It's the fact that Morant doesn't hit outside shots with consistency and that impacts his production more than anything. When he gets the ball, defenses know he wants to drive and forcing him to shoot is a viable, winning strategy to beat the Grizzlies. The Knicks defense doesn't let up a ton of points to opposing guards, so look for Morant to either force his way into the paint and hoist up contested shots, or hope he can hit from the outside since the paint won't be easily accessible. Either way, this should be another one of those games that the Grizzlies lose and Morant goes off.
Take this over quick before it rises. The Knicks keep every game competitive because of the pace they play at, and Julius Randle offensive ability thrives in that setting. There isn't much you can say that can deny how good Randle has been for most of the year, so don't be wary just because the Knicks should win this game. The Grizzlies play tough and even though they don't have the playmakers to stop Randle, they will do everything they can to stop everyone else from contributing.
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