RADIO
A weird week of racing at Kentucky is capped off on Sunday with the Quaker State 400. Unless, uhh, it rains a little too much...
Anyway, some storylines: Jimmie Johnson is back in the 48 after a one-week absence due to COVID-19. The All-Star race is coming up on the 15th and the cars will have underglow lighting for some reason. And, uhh, yeah, that mostly covers it.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)" @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Quaker State 400
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. You can also check out our YouTube video:
Top Fantasy Values At Kentucky
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
We spend a lot of time looking at DraftKings numbers in this column, so let's swing over to FanDuel today instead. (You can find the DK numbers in the Research Station, so subscribe!)
FanDuel's big values come with the middle of the pack guys:
No real surprise there.
Reddick, Johnson, and Bell are all projected for 60 or more fantasy points, putting them not far behind the projections of the most expensive drivers on the slate like Kevin Harvick (66.9) and Denny Hamlin (68.6). And while none of these guys have "run away with the race and lead 100s of laps" upside, if you can accurately predict who does have that upside of the top dollar guys, you can use these values to fill out a nice, winning lineup.
Kentucky Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Looking at the top guys, we see that Kyle Busch has traditionally run really, really well at Kentucky, while Chase Elliott hasn't. But Elliott's 2020 1.5-mile runs are essentially as good as anyone in the field, so you have to make a choice: do you trust Elliott's current season results more than his track history? Personally, I probably would, as the Hendrick cars seem to have more speed this season.
Lower down the pricing, there's a few guys of note who've had strong performances at this track before.
Kurt Busch's driver rating in recent races here is 119.5. Only brother Kyle's is higher. (The Busch brothers are good here!)
Of drivers priced at $7,500 or below on FanDuel, three have recent driver ratings here in the 70s or above. Ryan Newman (70.6) is the best play of those guys, though, because the other two -- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (70.3) and Daniel Suarez (88.9) -- are in worse equipment now than in the past.
Also to note is that Roush Fenway drivers have had good recent driver ratings here. Could that trickle down to the team's newest driver, Chris Buescher? Maybe!
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Track Correlations
One of my favorite parts of the Research Station is the NASCAR Track Correlation Matrix, which helps us see which tracks produce similar results.
For Kentucky, two tracks at 90 percent or above: Kansas (another cookie cutter 1.5-miler) and...Loudon? That's unexpected.
Last year, Kansas hosted a pair of Cup races. Chase Elliott had top fives in both, while other Hendrick drivers ran well too, with Alex Bowman finishing second in the first race and William Byron finishing fifth in the second.
Erik Jones ran top 10 in both races.
At the first race, Tyler Reddick made his second Cup Series start ever, taking a third RCR car to a ninth place finish.
At Loudon, Jones ran well again, finishing third. Based on correlation data, Jones is a really appealing DFS option on Sunday, especially when you factor in that he's finished top 10 in all three of his Kentucky races. That's my big takeaway from this part of the Research Station: Erik Jones has a great shot at a top five and, potentially, eking his way into Victory Lane.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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