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So, this is a weird weekend for NASCAR. No Xfinity. No Trucks. Just a quick jaunt up to New Hampshire for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.
Of course, the pressure of only having one NASCAR race this weekend to build DFS lineups for means that you have a lot of pressure to get things right this week. Good thing RotoBaller is here to help you!
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)": @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups, as well as our YouTube video:
Top Fantasy Values At New Hampshire
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Let's look at DraftKings numbers this week. And as always, let's focus on an area of the pricing where there seems to be some potential value:
Eight of the top nine drivers in pricing have a projected FP/$ of at least five, with Joey Logano's 4.92 being the lone exception. It seems like this week's pricing is fairly well aligned with who's projected to be best here.
We don't get another five or above guy until Matt Kenseth at 5.33 FP/$. Kenseth has worried me all year because the performance just hasn't seemed to be there, and three consecutive finishes outside the top-15 don't help me feel any more confident, but in his past life as a championship caliber driver, he has three wins and 21 top 10s here. There's only two tracks where Kenseth has more top 10s, actually, and if we want to trust past performance, there's value here, though you should definitely proceed tentatively with Kenseth.
John Hunter Nemechek is an interesting value too. His performances over the last month or so have been fine aside from a wreck at Kentucky, and with a starting position of 36th, his place differential upside makes him someone who'll be considered for a lot of lineups this week. Same for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and his 31st place starting spot.
New Hampshire Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the ratings for the top FanDuel drivers:
Two drivers have really excelled here recently: Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.
Busch, of course, is priced lower because he's struggled relative to expectations this season, but doesn't that just mean there's more potential value with him this week?
Notable among high-priced drivers who've not done as well at this track? Joey Logano, and even he has three consecutive top-10 finishes here.
A few notable names from further down the list:
- Ryan Newman (85.0 recent, 80.7 since 2013) runs well here, and his $7,400 pricing on FanDuel makes for a really nice value.
- Austin Dillon ($7,000) does not have great ratings here, but his 86.2 rating at short tracks in 2020 could bode well for Sunday.
- Chris Buescher ($6,000) is one of three drivers priced under 7K to have a driver rating of at least 60 here recently. One of those is Daniel Suarez, whose 2020 equipment makes him a no go. But Buescher -- now driving a better car than in years past -- is a good under-the-radar guy this week, and he doesn't start too far up towards the front, rolling off from 24th.
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Track Correlations
One of my favorite parts of the Research Station is the NASCAR Track Correlation Matrix, which helps us see which tracks produce similar results.
For New Hampshire, we have four tracks with a 93 percent correlation or better: Pocono, Kansas, Phoenix, and Richmond.
That's a really odd mixture. Like, really, really odd.
But hey, we were just at Kansas one race ago, so let's look at some facts from that one.
Denny Hamlin won that race, running in the top 15 for every single lap, having a 100 percent quality pass percentage, and leading a race-high 21.3 percent of the laps.
But the leader in fastest laps? Martin Truex Jr.
Meanwhile, Kyle Busch only finished 11th, but he led 52 laps, or 19.5 percent of the race, and ended the day with the fourth-highest driver rating. Busch's finish was an underperformance of expectation but it might be a sign of things to come at a track where he's run well in the past, winning three times and collecting 16 top 10s.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
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Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
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