RADIO
So, we've got another Cup Series race. It's taken a lot of energy drinks -- Rip It, occasional sponsor of Matt Crafton and 88 truck in the NASCAR Truck Series -- and a lot of early morning work, but RotoBaller is dedicated to treating this second race with the same attention as the first one, even if we have significantly less time to prepare for it.
So, it's Consumers Energy 400 time! We're back at Michigan International Speedway after Kevin Harvick's win yesterday. He starts 20th now, so there's a lot of room for this 4 car to pile up the DFS points again.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)": @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Consumers Energy 400
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups.
Top Fantasy Values At Michigan
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
For DraftKings, we've got one driver way, way out in front, which is Kevin Harvick at 7.17 FP/$. Not sure I can recall a projected FP/$ that high lately. Harvick's the big chalk play this week.
Where things get more interesting is with the lower pricing. Usually, we have some good value deeper in the field, but because of how the starting lineup was determined this week, things get way more iffy for some guys:
Some guys like Cole Custer and Austin Dillon had rough runs on Saturday and start a lot deeper in the field than we're used to, which has them projected to be really good values in this race due to the place differential.
But then, guys like Matt Kenseth, Chris Buescher, and, to a lesser extent, Tyler Reddick are nearly unplayable. Kenseth is projected for 12 points, with a 1.69 FP/$. That's incredibly low. He starts fourth, and there's just no way I can see him scoring enough points to justify a spot in my lineups. Buescher and Reddick also start top five, and while Reddick might have the speed to stay in the top 10 or so, all of these guys have too much negative place differential potential.
Saturday's Data
The Research Station also has data from Saturday's race. Some interesting insights from those numbers:
- Kevin Harvick ran 33 fastest laps, the most of anyone. But if you're looking for someone cheaper who ran some quick laps, Erik Jones had six fastest laps.
- Jones also had a 108.2 driver rating, the fifth-best of the day. He starts 10th on Sunday, so there's definitely some solid upside here if he's as quick as he was on Saturday.
- Martin Truex Jr. had an average running position of 21.4. Yes, he finished third, but he's not been great at this track historically, and I think staying away from him could be a useful strategy.
- Aric Almirola had an average running position of 18.2. I think he starts too far up today to have much value.
- Alex Bowman starts outside the top 20 on Sunday, and had a 9.4 average running position. Here's a good value guy!
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had an average running position of 13.6, but finished 32nd.
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Track Facts!
Make of all this data what you will:
- Michigan averages 17.3 percent of the race under caution, which makes it one of the most caution-heavy tracks on the schedule. More carnage means you want to diversify those lineups a little more than usual, yeah?
- The track ranks 17th in average green flag run percentage. Shorter runs means we might want more short run speed guys. Per NASCAR, the top three drivers in early run speed this year are Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and Kevin Harvick. Kyle Busch ranks 15th -- it's been late run speed where he's come in strong.
- The pole sitter usually leads an average of 71.1 laps, but the weird starting procedure today means that probably doesn't happen, as the front row is Chris Buescher and Clint Bowyer. Maybe Bowyer can pull away early, but the better cars will be coming fast.
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