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Justin Carter's NASCAR DFS prop picks for the NASCAR All-Star Race contests on Monkey Knife Fight. Use these picks to win MKF Prop pick contests.
This Wednesday is the NASCAR All-Star Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. This will mark the first time since 1986 that this race was run at a track other than Charlotte Motor Speedway, and we should be in for an exciting race under the lights at one of NASCAR's most exciting tracks.
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The NASCAR All-Star Open
There are actually two different contests on Monkey Knife Fight on Wednesday since there's the All-Star Race and also the qualifying race for drivers not already in the All-Star Race to qualify for the All-Star Race.
That was a mouthful.
Anyway, because of the unique structure of this week's races and the fact that there are two contests you can enter, today's column is going to look a little different than usual. Usually, I'd pick a couple of prop bets for the race and argue why you should follow my advice, but today I'm going to give some quicker notes on a couple of prop picks from each of the races.
More or Less Fantasy Points: Aric Almirola (over 16.5) and Matt DiBenedetto (over 15.5)
I like the over for both drivers here.
For Almirola, the argument's easy. He starts second in a Stewart-Haas car. The next comparable car in terms of speed is probably William Byron starting in seventh. Almirola should be able to amass some fantasy points via leading early laps and finishing up front.
DiBenedetto is a more difficult driver to figure out since he starts 10th, but if you take out the small sample of the Charlotte roval, Bristol is DiBenedetto's best track and the only one where his average finish is better than 20th. He needs a top five to ensure he hits the over, but in the All-Star Open with a much less scary field of competitors and at a Bristol track where this driver has been successful, I'll take the chance.
Rapid Fire: Tyler Reddick (+1.5) over Christoper Bell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. over Bubba Wallace (+3.5)
With how well Reddick has run lately, I might take him over Bell without the added points. With them, I really like going with Reddick this week. He did have a pair of top two finishes here in Xfinity last year.
On the other side, it's really tempting to take Wallace with the added 3.5 points in a race with only 20 drivers. Really, really tempting. But Bristol is Stenhouse's best non-Talladega track. He's got an average finish of 15.7 here. He starts fourth. I think he has a great chance to lead some laps and I'm taking the risk on him outscoring Bubba.
The NASCAR All-Star Race
And then we have the big race. No need for a preamble here. Let's look at a couple prop bets you should think about.
More or Less: Chase Elliott (under 16.5), Ryan Blaney (over 15.5)
Look, I think it's safe to say that the All-Star Race at Bristol could be a mess. Anything can happen, and you shouldn't overthink it.
So, I didn't overthink this. Elliott starts 13th in a race where a bunch of money's on the line at a track that breeds wrecks. Regardless of his results here in the past, I don't feel particularly safe betting on big production from a driver starting mid-pack.
And for Blaney, the opposite is true here. He starts third in a Penske car. Before crashing here earlier in the year, he had three consecutive top 10s here. I feel much better about Blaney getting 15.5 points than Elliott getting 16.5.
Rapidfire: Kevin Harvick over Denny Hamlin (+1.5), Ryan Blaney (+1.5) over Chase Elliott
You can scroll up for my Blaney/Elliott reasoning. I don't even need the added points to go with Blaney.
On the other end, we have Harvick starting fifth and Hamlin starting 15th. Harvick's last few races here haven't been his best, but he's still got top 10s in 48.7 percent of his Bristol starts. Hamlin has top 10s in 48.3 percent of his starts here, so basically the same number as Harvick, and while he had a win here in 2019, I think the tiebreaker for me is "who has the better chance of getting to the front to lead laps." That's Harvick.
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