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Welcome back to another week of NASCAR Prop Picks! We've got a Cup Series doubleheader this weekend at Michigan International Speedway, starting with Saturday's FireKeepers Casino 400, which Kevin Harvick won, and then concluding with the race we're talking about, the Consumers Energy 400.
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We'll be helping you along every day and night where there's a race, by providing you with expert prop picks all NASCAR season long here at RotoBaller.
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Game 1: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2): Brad Keselowski (more than 16.5) and Chase Elliott (less than 16.5)
So, this week things get a little weirder than usual when it comes to projecting these prop picks, because the inverted top 20 starting grid means drivers like Keselowski who were really good on Saturday have to come from a lot farther back than usual, which in theory makes their overall result more volatile to project.
But still, I'm taking the over on Keselowski. In five races here since 2018, he's got two seconds, two sixths, and a 19th. He's only led two of those races -- including 66 laps in the race where he finished 19th -- but this car has shown a lot of speed here, even if Brad is still searching for his first ever win at the track. One day, and maybe that one day is Sunday?
As for Elliott, he starts higher up than Keselowski, but that's because he ran worse on Saturday. He has seven top 10s in eight races here, but has seen a pretty big drop off in performance after starting his Cup career with three second place runs in a row at MIS.
Since then, his six races have produced a best finish of seventh and just 10 total laps led. 16.5 points without leading any laps would mean Elliott would need to finish fourth. His recent results here don't suggest that that's going to happen. Maybe I'm wrong and Elliott gets up there and contends for the win, but he has gone six races now without a top five.
Game 2: Rapidfire (2/2): Brad Keselowski (+0.5) over Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch over Ryan Blaney (+0.5)
My Brad Keselowski argument is covered above, so I'm not going to rehash it here. Scroll up to the first section.
As for the second head-to-head battle, the extra 0.5 you get with Blaney is tempting, especially with how up-and-down 2020's been for Kyle Busch, but I'm going to lean Busch here.
Why? Well, on Saturday Blaney finished fourth, leading 27 laps. Busch finished fifth, leading four laps. That was the biggest argument for me to go with Blaney, but I ultimately decided to go with some other evidence.
Busch has six finishes in a row of sixth or better here. Blaney's had two races where he's finished outside of the top 10 in that span, including a 24th place finish here last year. There's been more volatility with Blaney, making Busch feel a slight bit safer.
Blaney's also started outside the top 10 four times here, and the fourth place run on Saturday was his first top five under those circumstances. Busch had top 10s here twice in 2019 while starting 15th and 22nd.
Busch has proven he can be competitive at Michigan while starting midpack. Blaney hasn't proven that yet. Let's roll with Kyle Busch.
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