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Every time the Packers are linked to another tight end -- whether eyeing one in the draft or pursuing one in free agency -- the fantasy football community collectively heaves a deep sigh and moans. "Oh great," they say with the most pronounced of eye rolls. "There goes his fantasy value."
Green Bay, according to the vast majority of fantasy analysts, is a wasteland for tight ends. The common narrative goes that Aaron Rodgers hates tight ends as much as he loves drinking scotch. According to the internet, Rodgers (and to a lesser extent, the Packers' coaching staff) would make the second-coming of Rob Gronkowski an afterthought.
But is that perception accurate? Let's dig into this and find out.
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What Talent Level Have They Been Working With?
Aaron Rodgers has played 10 seasons where he's started at least 15 games. Looking at the fantasy finishes of his tight ends in those years seems to justify the perception that Green Bay is suffocating the position. In those 10 seasons, there have only been four top 12 finishes by his tight ends. That's less than ideal. But as with most things in fantasy football, context is king.
Since becoming the Packers' starting quarterback in 2008, Rodgers hasn't exactly had a "who's who" of talented tight ends to work with. For instance, in Rodgers' rookie year, he was throwing to Donald Lee, a fifth-round pick who had racked up a total of 61 receptions and three touchdowns in his four years at Mississipi State. Getting a TE20 season out of Lee when Rodgers also had Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones to throw to is as much as anyone could hope for.
Rodgers also enjoyed a full season with Andrew Quarless, another fifth-rounder with limited college production. Quarless' TE26 finish in 2014 wasn't indicative of Green Bay not using the position effectively, but of Quarless not measuring up to Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and prime Eddie Lacy.
Then there was the season featuring Lance Kendricks, whose most fantasy-relevant year came on a Rams team whose primary receivers were Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin. (Kendricks still didn't crack the top 20 that season, by the way.)
But hey, remember 2015 when Green Bay's future Hall of Fame quarterback was able to pull a TE11 fantasy finish out of Richard freaking Rodgers. Please re-read that sentence immediately, as there's no way you appreciated the magnificence of that feat at first glance. This man saw the 10th-most targets at his position and a 20% target share inside the 10-Zone:
Still, there are some talented tight ends who've passed through Green Bay. Most folks believe they would have panned out better for fantasy purposes if the Packers actually utilized the position. Starting with...
Jermichael Finley
Third-round pick Jermichael Finley was as athletically-gifted as he was frustrating to watch. Though he could stretch the field with the best of them, his hands seemed hastily-assembled by a tired woman with low inventory in her craft room. His drops were maddening.
Still, Finley secured a TE12 finish in his first season as the featured tight end. Unfortunately, he got injured in Week 5 of the following season, leaving rookie Andrew Quarless to try to pick up the pieces. Prior to his injury, Finley was on pace for 104 targets and 84 receptions, and was the TE4 through those first four weeks.
In 2011, Finley reached his career-best fantasy finish of TE8 on the back of career highs in targets (92), yards (767), and touchdowns (8). And this was despite also leading the tight end position in drops with 12. Those drops would cause Rodgers to look his way far less often down the stretch, as the quarterback notoriously demands intense trust and accountability from his receivers.
Finley fell off a bit in 2012, notching the TE14 ranking, again in part due to his dropped passes (9), which seemed to come at the worst possible times. His dropsies became so egregious he pledged to donate $500 to charity for every dropped pass the following season, just to earn back some goodwill in Green Bay.
Finley's NFL career ended in Week 7 of 2013 after a helmet-to-helmet hit left him paralyzed. This extremely sad ending would also kick off Green Bay's desperate (and usually fruitless) search for a replacement at the position.
Jared Cook
Cook's time in Green Bay was unfortunately short-lived, playing just 10 games with the Packers in 2016. Cook underwent "preventative" foot surgery in the prior offseason, though it didn't prevent him from suffering a high ankle sprain that kept him out for 6 games and hindered his play for a number of games after that. But even playing through the injury, Cook was able to claw his way into the TE12 spot from Weeks 11-17.
But it was the playoffs where we really saw Cook begin to thrive. In three playoff games, Cook put up 18 receptions on 32 targets, notching 229 yards and two TDs. That would've averaged out to 17.6 fantasy points per game, which would have made him far and away the TE1 in 2016. (Jordan Reed led the group with 14.1 per game that year.)
Obviously, these types of extrapolations don't prove anything. We can't know if Cook would have actually put up a top tier finish if he'd stayed healthy the whole season, nor do we know if he could have sustained that level of success the following year in Green Bay. In fact, Rodgers playing only seven games in 2017 practically guarantees he would've fallen off. But given those playoff stats, you have to wonder whether Cook might've had similar fantasy production as he's since enjoyed with Oakland and New Orleans.
Jimmy Graham
And then there's this guy. It would be too easy to write off Jimmy Graham's lackluster performances in Green Bay simply because of his age and lack of working knees. Because the year prior to calling Lambeau Field home turf he put up a TE6 fantasy finish in Seattle. So there has to be more to the story. And thankfully there is.
Namely, his broken thumb in Week 10 of 2018. Before that injury, Graham was performing as the TE8 in fantasy. Ultimately, he still scraped together a TE12 finish despite playing without an opposable thumb. And no, those are not the rankings of an elite fantasy tight end. But it is pretty reminiscent of his first year in Seattle, when he was the TE10 through Week 9. Because no matter how long a player has been in the NFL, learning a new system is difficult. Despite all that, Graham received the 6th-most targets (91) at the tight end position in 2018.
Flash forward to 2019, in an offense led by first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, and Jimmy Graham looked much, much worse. As did the entirety of Green Bay's offense outside of Aaron Jones and Davante Adams, to be honest. And also, Jimmy Graham was 33-years-old and couldn't hold onto the ball in the end zone. Fantasy football history books aren't exactly littered with tight ends lighting up the scoreboards at that age. (Outside of Shannon Sharpe and Antonio Gates.)
The true test here would be for Graham to go to another team in his age-34 season and sustain fantasy relevance.
What These Excuses Mean For 2020
Though I would prefer to call the information above "context," many reading this will most assuredly refer to it as "excuses." And that's fine. I understand that there have been other teams who've produced fantasy-relevant tight ends despite also being stacked with other receiving weapons like Rodgers was for much of his career. Other teams force-feed their old and fragile tight ends no matter what.
But it remains to be seen what a fresh, healthy, athletic tight end can do in Green Bay these days. And unless the Packers invest in a high-profile free agent, Jace Sternberger looks to be that case study. The third-round pick from 2019 lost his rookie season to an ankle injury but should be asked to perform a substantial role in Green Bay's offense going forward.
Head coach Matt LaFleur was considered very tight end-friendly coming into Green Bay, and though his rookie coaching season didn't bear that out, he has an opportunity to reclaim that moniker with Sternberger.
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