RADIO
Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/20/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
I'm back for another weekend edition of our home run prop article! If you caught yesterday's picks, we were able to cash James Wood at +550 and have a profitable slate as a result. I was able to keep the streak going as our MLB prop pick writers have correctly identified at least one home run hitter in every article since we started this series!
To be completely transparent, I bet home run props mainly for fun, as they are much tougher to predict than other player props. But they are also more rewarding, with better odds and arguably the most exciting bets to watch cash if you get to watch the slugger you wagered on go yard! I am going to continue to target hitters with around +400 odds or better with my picks, as I am always on the hunt for what I perceive to be good value.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for the MLB games on Sunday, April 20, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop for the best price with other books.
Editor's Note: Stay on top of your draft prep with RotoBaller’s fantasy football rankings, featuring expert analysis, ADPs, and draft insights for both PPR and non-PPR leagues.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Sunday, April 20:
- Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
- Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs
- Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies
- Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 home runs (+475 DraftKings)
Our first victim today is White Sox pitcher Sean Burke. It's been a very rough start for him to the 2025 season, to say the least. Burke enters today's game with a slate-high 20% Barrel% and an ugly 9.37 xERA. He's already allowed five home runs in his first four starts, four of those to right-handed hitters.
Alex Bregman has his first career 5-hit game 👏 pic.twitter.com/3AD8Zr4zGH
— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2025
Bregman has historically tortured lefties, but is off to a great start this year against righties, too, with an ISO of .257 and SLG of .571. The park factor here favors right-handed hitters with the Green Monster in left field.
Bregman has the new dad mojo going for him and is only a few games removed from a five-hit game in Tampa. He's swinging a hot bat, and when we combine his solid start with Burke's poor metrics, I like our chances of a Bregman home run over the Green Monster today.
Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 home runs (+700 DraftKings)
I was blown away to see De La Cruz at the lowest odds in this matchup against Charlie Morton at +700! Camden Yards is the third-best park for left-handed home run hitters, and the veteran Morton has already surrendered four long balls this season.
Morton has been hit hard but hitters from both sides of the dish so far this year, but I want to focus on the lefties here because of the way this park favors lefty power.
Morton's 13.6 Barrel percentage is the third-highest on the slate, and his other contact metrics (8.8 SwStr percentage, 93.5 percent Z-Contact) suggest that he's well past his prime and in danger of becoming a full-blown gas can this season.
De La Cruz has four home runs on the season and is starting to elevate the ball more this season. His power is undeniable, and at these odds, this feels like the best value bet on the board. If you like the Reds today, consider that lefties like Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl are both well over +1000 odds on DraftKings, too.
Kyle Tucker OVER 0.5 home runs (+600 FanDuel)
It's been a dream start to Tucker's career in Chicago as he's among the league leaders in home runs, RBI, and runs scored through the first month of the season. Tucker has smacked six dingers already, including one in this series on Friday in a game that went off the rails late with the wind blowing out to center field and both bullpens choking badly.
There's no wind advantage today, but Tucker still looks good to me in this matchup against Arizona righty Merrill Kelly. Kelly's metrics look a lot like Charlie Morton's, as he also has a 13 percent Barrel percentage and a very poor 92.2 Z-Contact percentage. He's not missing many bats at 8.8 SwStr percentage, and his xERA is an ugly 5.94 with a 50.8 percent hard contact rate.
God, I love stats! All of them suggest that Kelly is getting hit hard to start the year. This ballpark is not friendly to pitchers who are getting barreled up as often as Kelly is. While Michael Busch is the hotter Cubs lefty at the moment, I'll take the more established hitter Tucker here at the same odds to leave the yard in this one.
Sports Betting Promo Offers
Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!
Michael Toglia OVER 0.5 home runs (+440 FanDuel)
Toglia was a popular sleeper pick on draft day, but he's been underwhelming to start the year with just a .176 batting average and one home run. The good news is that he's showing signs of turning it on, slugging his first home run of the season on Wednesday.
Michael Toglia With His 1st HR Of 2025!
103.0 MPH
29 Degree LA
418 FT
.770 xBA
HR in 26/30 BallparksToglia, while starting the year slow, slugged 25 HR in 2024 and hit the ball as hard as anyone in baseball (17.3% Barrel%/50.2% hard-hit%).
Tonight, he does it in grand style! pic.twitter.com/qI4XhQJwsO
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) April 17, 2025
I have to bet on someone from Colorado today because Jake Irvin is on the mound for the Nats in the first game of this double-header. Irvin has allowed the most barrels of any pitcher in baseball since the start of the 2024 season and has already surrendered four home runs this season.
Irvin's barrel rate is at 13 percent again this year, and you can see a theme developing here with the pitchers we are targeting, as he also has only an eight percent SwStr percentage and a poor 5.90 xERA. Toglia possesses elite power, and we saw numerous home runs hit in Colorado yesterday, despite the colder conditions. I love the price here on a hitter who is set to break out in an elite hitting environment and matchup.
Heliot Ramos OVER 0.5 home runs (+425 DraftKings)
The easy move here would be to bet on Matt Chapman if I wanted to pick on Yusei Kikuchi. Chapman drilled another home run last night and has two in his previous three games, while Ramos hasn't hit a home run since April Fools' Day.
But the value here on Ramos is too good for me to pass up. While Chapman has +300 odds, we can get Ramos over +400, and he's every bit as lethal against lefties, if not more.
I never like it when someone says a player "is due" to hit a home run, but Ramos hitting three in the first week of the season and then none since seems a bit weird and fluky to me. We saw him destroy lefties last season, and while Kikuchi isn't a total gas can like some of these other pitchers, he is vulnerable to the long ball.
Kikuchi has not pitched like his usual self so far this year, with a 12.5 Barrel percentage and an 8.8 SwStr percentage. I think the Giants can get to him early and often. Ramos should lead off and get at least four, maybe five at-bats. That makes him a great play at these odds, and I think he's set to break out of his home run hitting slump.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
