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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/14/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Things started out strong on both plays, then Ryan Yarbrough got lit up and the Rangers pulled away, ending any hopes of a Rays win. The over in the Marlins/Braves game panned out exactly like I expected, with both starting pitchers getting rocked often. A split on record with a small loss in profit on the day; I leave pleased.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Wednesday, April 14. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.15u)
O/U Record: 3-2 (+.76u)
Runline Record: 2-3 (+2u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.75u)
Prop Record: 0-2-1 (-2u)
2021 Total Record: 8-10-3 (-2.7u)
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
O/U: 8 | PHI -112 NYM+105
Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler; New York: David Peterson
Wheeler put together two solid outings to start the year, both against the Braves. The righty is pounding the zone (53%) and generating swings and misses (30%) but is getting hit hard (44%) when batters make contact. It’s a small sample, but the former Met is looking good. The Phils’ offense had a tough go at it in Tuesday’s double dip. They struck out 17 times and scored just three runs between the two games. Against LHP, they’re boom or bust, holding a 30 K% but also host a .204 ISO with 13 extra-base hits. In 2020, they ranked top 5 in OPS, ISO, and wOBA, so the upside is there with a plus matchup.
The Mets have certainly been frustrating in their delayed start to the year, but their doubleheader sweep of the Phillies on Tuesday was a nice change of pace. Peterson got shelled by these same Phillies April 7, allowing six runs on seven hits with two homers. As a rookie in 2020, the southpaw posted solid numbers but a 1.41 WHIP and a 5.42 FIP at home are worrisome, although he did post a 23 K% at Citi Field as well. The lineup backing him had been a bit sluggish coming into Tuesday, though they scored eight in the two games. Against RHP, they have just a .708 OPS with a .315 wOBA this season but their big guns like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are still getting off the early season rust.
An experienced arm (Wheeler) with an offense waiting to bust out will have motivation to salvage at least one game out the series. The Mets could break out just as easily, but I’m rolling with Wheeler’s track record.
Pick: Philadelphia ML (-112, Fanduel) 1 Unit
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 8 | SD -200 PIT +190
San Diego: Joe Musgrove; Pittsburgh: Tyler Anderson
This is going to be an emotional start for Musgrove, no just because it’s his first start following a no-hitter, but he makes his return to Pittsburgh, the team that traded him this offseason. “Big Joe” has been near perfect, allowing just three hits and no runs over 15 innings while also striking out 18 and walking none. Incredibly unsustainable numbers, and this Pirates lineup is tougher than most believe. The Padres offense has been steady but not great so far, averaging just four runs a game. However, they’ve mashed LHP in a small sample, carrying a .912 OPS and 153 wRC+. Keep in mind they are missing Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Pirates pitching staff is a disaster, no other way to put it. Seven different pitchers walked 13 hitters on Monday and they somehow still won; that’s what we call an anomaly, something baseball is well known for. They’ll look to Anderson to right there ship. He’s been serviceable if nothing else, allowing three runs in both of his starts with a 12/2 K/BB over 10.1 IP. His metrics are solid, ranking in the 75th percentile or better in Chase and Whiff rate. Offensively, the Pirates haven’t had issues scoring runs, playing 5.6 runs per game over their L3. Against RHP, they carry a .695 OPS but a .129 ISO shows there’s very little pop in this lineup, which just looking at a lineup card should tell you.
The Pirates went through six of their relievers on Tuesday, while the Padres used just three despite their starter being pulled in the 1st inning. They won game one 6-2 after getting to the Pittsburgh bullpen. Anderson could give San Diego a match, but still look for the Padres to provide enough run support for Musgrove that once the worn-down Pittsburgh bullpen enters, things could get out-of-hand.
Pick: San Diego -1.5 (-102, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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