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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/20/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
A lovely 2-0 day to start the week is the good vibes we’ve needed. My first ever NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet cleared, then Dylan Bundy looked to be cruising early before getting lit up for five in an inning and the over took off from there.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Tuesday, April 20. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-3 (-2.15u)
O/U Record: 5-2 (+2.78u)
Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.76u)
Prop Record: 1-2-1 (-.96u)
2021 Total Record: 11-12-3 (-1.95u)
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
O/U: 7.5 | CHW -108 CLE +100
Chicago: Carlos Rodon; Cleveland: Zach Plesac
Rodon is fresh off a no-hitter, and a near perfect game. He’s yet to give up a run through his first two starts or 14.1 innings, which is already 35% of the innings he’d thrown in 2019-20 combined. The 28-year-old is a steady arm but his numbers are incredibly inflated due to his last start. Offensively, the Chi Sox are coming off a split in Boston and over their last two series’ they have just two games where they’ve scored five or more runs. Against RHP, they’re patient (10 BB%) but lack any real excitement, hosting just a .672 OPS and a 98 wRC+.
Plesac is looking for a redemption outing following his blowup April 14, where he didn’t make it out of the first after allowing six runs. His two starts prior were solid, but his metrics are scary. He’s pounding the strike zone but hitters aren’t missing, making contact 84% of the time. Plesac’s stuff also isn’t generating misses, hosting just a 21 Whiff%. The Cleveland lineup leaves something to be desired, but they have been solid against LHP. Just an 18 K% and a 9 BB%, they host a .714 OPS as a team with a .205 ISO.
It’s easy to target Rodon following his last performance, but I’m fading him, and I’m also fading Plesac. Give me a merry-go-round of offense in Cleveland tonight.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
O/U: 8.5 | BOS -114 TOR +100
Toronto: Hyun-Jin Ryu; Boston: Eduardo Rodriguez
Ryu has been “all that” since joining the Blue Jays before the 2020 season. Through three starts, or 19.2 IP, he’s allowed just two runs to go with a 19/2 K/BB. The southpaw will not overpower hitters, but he limits hard contact and keeps hitter confused at the plate. Offensively, Toronto is a little banged up and the rest of the lineup hasn’t been lighting it up. As a team, they average just four runs per game, and average one less when on the road. Against southpaws, the Jays are respectable, posting a .728 OPS, despite just a 7 BB% and they have just eight extra-base hits against lefties thus far.
Rodriguez started the year off on the wrong foot, getting scratched for opening day because of “dead arm” which is never good to hear before the Eason starts. He silenced that noise quite well, throwing 10 innings while allowing four runs on nine hits with a 12/1 K/BB. The lefty is doing a wonderful job pounding the strike zone and getting ahead in the count but hasn’t displayed any blow-away stuff yet. Boston got a huge outburst Monday against Lucas Giolito and they’ve had relative success against LHP this far, posting near identical numbers to Toronto with a .728 OPS and a .162 ISO, though they haven’t been the most patient with just a 5 BB%.
Ryu has been dominant for the Jays, while Rodriguez is performing above expectations. Could that come crashing down? Sure, but I think Boston got their run scoring in on Monday and will come out sluggish, while Toronto just hasn’t looked like the offense many thought coming into the season.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-118 Fanduel) 1 Unit
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