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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/13/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Not the way we wanted to start the week, as Baltimore/Seattle was rained out, followed by Arizona getting run out of their own park after Madison Bumgarner had another terrible start. Trending downward a bit in terms of record and units, but no reason to get discouraged.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Tuesday, April 13. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.15u)
O/U Record: 2-2 (-.14u)
Runline Record: 2-2 (+3u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.75u)
Prop Record: 0-2-1 (-2u)
2021 Total Record: 7-9-3 (-2.6u)
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 8.5 | TB -182 TEX +155
Texas: Kyle Gibson; Tampa Bay: Ryan Yarbrough
Both of Gibson's starts this year couldn't have been more different. He lasted just .1 innings on opening day, giving up five runs before striking out eight over six scoreless frames against the Blue Jays his second time out. He's getting hit quite hard with an average launch angle of 10 degrees, but has yet to give up a home run. The lineup might have their hands full, as three of their top hitters are lefties and thus far, they've struggled as a team against southpaws, holding a .259 wOBA and .123 ISO. Keep in mind they're also in a bad place after getting devoured by Tyler Glasnow on Monday.
Yarbrough is the opposite of his mound opponent in that his first start was much better than the second. The 29-year-old does a fantastic job limiting hard contact, holding an average exit velocity of 82 mph, but needs to work at getting ahead of hitters better, throwing a first pitch strike just 52 % of the time. Offensively, to this point, the Rays haven't had issues scoring runs, averaging six runs over their L3 entering Monday. They plated just one in the series opener and surprisingly haven't been that potent against RHP, but Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena are off to strong starts and have positive matchups against Gibson.
Luckily the Rays didn't need to score a ton of runs Monday, but Tuesday presents a new day and this lineup should be ready to get back to their run-scoring ways. Look for Yarbrough to silence a lineup featuring prominent left-handed hitters.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+116, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8 | ATL -188; MIA +170
Miami: Pablo Lopez; Atlanta: Max Fried
Lopez is an important piece of this Marlins team and he showed it through his first two outings. He's scattered just two runs and five hits over 11.2 innings while striking out 10 and walking four. However, the 25-year-old hasn't seemed to be a fan of pitching on the road. A career 6.11 ERA is three points higher than at home, while also stranding just 60 % of runners as a visitor. His history at Truist Park is less than stellar as well; over four starts he has an 8.47 ERA and has allowed four homers over 17 innings. This lineup has some weapons but is rather top heavy. A stat to note is that Miami ranked as a top 10 offense against LHP in 2020 in AVG, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ so there is some upside.
Fried is on the border of elite and has had a so-so start to 2021. He's been solid at home over his career, posting a 3.10 ERA and a .293 wOBA across 139.1 innings, but some splits against right-handed hitters jump out a little bit. Over his career, 24 of the 30 home runs he's allowed have come from hitters on the right side, while he also allows a .322 wOBA, 1.40 WHIP against righties. Offensively, it's hard not to be excited about this Braves lineup, but man are they boom or bust. Boasting a .202 ISO against righties this year also comes with a 26 K% as a unit.
Lopez is a totally different pitcher away from home and against this Atlanta offense, it's hard not to point out his struggles in this ballpark. While Fried is an excellent arm, there is a some numbers worth attacking here in favor of the Marlins. Plus consider how much both bullpens were used Monday night, so things could get rocky as soon as either starter exits. Eight is too low of a total, in my opinion.
Pick: Over 8 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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