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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/2/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
I hope everyone had a fantastic holiday weekend. I know the world is still in tons of disarray, but when sports are on, things seem "normal." If you follow me on Twitter (handle below), I posted a few plays this weekend as well, which is something I hope to do frequently on days that I don't write, so be on the look out for more of that!
I'm Steve Janik and I'm here to bring my insight, analysis and picks to help you make informed betting decisions this season. I've been writing up betting picks for RotoBaller since the 2019 NCAA football season and have covered both football and baseball. I am probably most known around these parts for my wild 2020 KBO gambling success when that was the only sport we had to bet on during the COVID shutdowns. I also handicapped some MLB last season, but it didn't end up very well, going 17-24-2 (-9u). Just like everything else with 2020, we want to put that in the past!
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Monday, April 5. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1u)
O/U Record: 0-1 (-1u)
Runline Record: 1-0 (+.86u)
First 5 Record: 1-0-1 (+.9u)
Prop Record: 0-0-1
2021 Total Record: 2-2-2 (-.2u)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 9 | PIT +123, CIN-143
PIT: JT Brubaker; CIN: Jose De Leon
The Pirates scored five runs in their opening day win and have only scored four in their two losses following. The offense is weak and struggles for run-scoring opportunities but oddly enough they find ways to string innings together, though they ar enow missing young stud Ke'Bryan Hayes. Brubaker opened some eyes in in Triple-A in 2018 and '19 and had a decent debut season in 2020. The hard-throwing 27-year-old is a middle-of-the-road arm, in terms of statcast data, but has shown the stuff (89th percentile Curve Spin '20) to get hitters out.
The Reds scored 21 runs on Saturday and Sunday, and this offense is built for big days like that. We've also seen the fire the team carries, following Saturday's bench-clearing brawl. Nick Castellanos already has two homers while Eugenio Suarez and Mike Moustakas are at the ready to bust out. Jose De Leon will be making his first start since the 2016 season after making six relief appearances in 2020. There's not a ton of material available on the 28-year-old, but he did register a 95m pg sinker last year ,so there is some electricity here.
Both pitchers have thrown less than 100 innings combined, and while Brubaker has made more noise coming through the minors, De Leon has a better offense behind him. However, I'm trusting the arm in this scenario and hoping the Pirates can muster a run or two before their bullpen has to come into the mix.
Pick: Pirates F5 ML (+138, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics
O/U: 9 | LAD -162, OAK +138
LAD: Dustin May; OAK: Frankie Montas
May is just 23 and expected to be a part of this Dodger rotation for a long time. His first "full" season in 2020 saw him go 3-1 over 12 appearances with a 2.57 ERA in 56.1 innings. His stuff is as good as it comes, now it's just a matter of fulfilling his role in the rotation. Luckily for him, he has arguably the most dominant offense to back him up. They've scored 26 runs in their first four games, however, add in the Coors Field effect and those may be a bit inflated. Still, not strange numbers for this lineup.
Oakland got walloped Sunday, starting their season off on a damper with an 0-4 record. The pitching staff is mainly to blame, but just nine runs scored through four games won't get the job done, but this offense has the weapons to make it happen. Things don't get any easier though, with the Dodgers matchup, and Montas will have his hands full on the mound Monday. However, the 28-year-old is ready for the challenge. His 2020 wasn't great, dropping his K% while seeing an increase in BB% and just about every other category. Although we've seen him dominate in 2019 when he posted a 2.63 ERA in 96 IP.
May and Montas are two bright arms on the West coast, and this should be a fun game to watch for traditionalist baseball fans. Sure, both offenses have some serious firepower but I think both of these pitchers really take a step forward in 2021, and it starts today. I'm targeting the first half, because Oakland used five relievers Sunday, so once Montas leaves, things could go any-which-way.
Pick: First 5 Under 4.5 runs (-103, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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