Kaleb Johnson, Tetairoa McMillan, Matthew Golden - Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Busts

John's fantasy football rookie draft avoids for 2025. His overvalued dynasty NFL rookies. Why will Kaleb Johnson, Tetairoa McMillan, and Matthew Golden bust in 2025 dynasty fantasy football?

Perhaps the worst feeling you can get as a dynasty fantasy football manager that doesn't relate directly to losing matchups is when you invest a premium pick in a rookie draft in a player that ends up being a bust. Much of your offseason research should be dedicated to really scrutinizing players and their situations.

Of course, some players have the talent to overcome poor offensive situations. Just look at Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers. Despite playing on a terrible offense with overall poor quarterback play, he had a massive rookie season and was easily the TE1 in all scoring formats.

Yet Bowers is the exception rather than the rule. And he was an utterly elite prospect without many red flags. In fact, the "red flags" were mostly due to poor quarterback play in college. Whatever the reasons may be, let's break down three busts that you should avoid like the plague in 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts.

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Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

When a player puts up huge numbers in a conference like the Big 10, there's typically an overwhelming sentiment in the community that it's because that player is good and that they have to succeed at the next level. No one is guaranteed success in the NFL, so that's a fallacious take.

More importantly, in terms of red flags, Johnson has them all over his athletic profile and film. It's important not to flatly deny the possibility that he busts because his statistics were impressive. What's more important is to dive into the context as much as possible. There's no better context than film.

Pause most of his big runs and see how much green grass he has in front of him. Iowa's offensive line and run blocking were insane. pic.twitter.com/tLezUglVN9

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

A huge problem with Johnson is that you don't have to look very hard to find out why he was successful -- his team's run-blocking was elite. In fact, it was the best in the Power 4 last season. The film backs this up. Johnson's big runs mostly seem to follow the same pattern.

The offensive line opens up massive holes, and the team blocks well down the field. Then he has massive swaths of green grass to run through. Football is a team sport. Running back statistical production is largely driven by the quality of blocking. Even poor athletes like Johnson can be made to look incredible to the layman's eye.

Great blocking again opens up a huge hole. Two defenders are blocked well enough that they barely get a hand on him. More green grass to run through pic.twitter.com/aZo5nGkS4L

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

Johnson had a massive game against Minnesota last season on the stat sheet. But the real heroes of the game were the blockers. It's a commonly used argument that Johnson faced stacked boxes, and therefore his runs were hugely impressive, but if the blockers take care of the box defenders, is it that impressive for the RB?

I intentionally included multiple clips from the same game to show how Johnson got massive amounts of "free" production. Generally, he just runs to the gap where he thinks a hole will be created and tries to run through it. If that doesn't work, the results are usually terrible, even sometimes when the blocking is good.

I acknowledge that Kaleb Johnson's stats were insane. 14 rushes for 120 yards and 2 TDs is great. But some of his reps are just horrible. 85 throws a great block. Massive real estate to the left. Johnson runs into his lineman's ass though. pic.twitter.com/RlP70u1mWG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

Johnson is massively praised for his vision. Yet he has multiple reps per game where he seems to not have a clue what's going on, and routinely misses huge gaps to run through, instead opting to run into his own offensive linemen's backsides.

For how much he's praised for his tackle breaking, Kaleb Johnson seems to go down every time he's tripped. Just get a hand on his leg and you can bring him down. OL opens up a huge hole that could've been a massive run here. pic.twitter.com/gbzjyHTJ17

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

Johnson is also disqualifyingly bad at avoiding trip attempts. Defenders just need to swipe at one of his legs to bring him down. There are numerous examples of this on tape. Of course, they're largely ignored by the community, who continue to point back at his statistical production as proof that he MUST be good in the NFL.

Misses a decent size crease on the right side here to run into his lineman's ass again pic.twitter.com/QbSUfyL4Yk

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

Johnson's "good" tape is mostly comprised of good offensive line and blocking scheme footage. Johnson's bad tape is utterly awful. He was the worst running back to test at the 2025 NFL Combine, too, which didn't help. He ran a 4.57-second 40-yard-dash (bottom-6) with a 1.57-second 10-yard-split. That was tied for the worst.

Get a hand on Kaleb Johnson's foot and that's usually all you need to take him down. He seems to get tripped often with ease. pic.twitter.com/JWfellz5DN

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

There is plenty of precedent for highly productive running backs in tough college conferences being complete busts in the NFL. Yet everyone seems afraid to predict the next one, because great college numbers mean a running back is very good and will be great in the NFL, right? This time it won't happen again, surely.

Ignoring Johnson's red flags because of his statistical production is foolish. Once upon a time, a running back dominated in his final college season, putting up 1,414 rushing yards on 215 carries, good for a ridiculous 6.6 yards per carry, scoring 16 rushing touchdowns, and ripping off an 89-yard play.

That was Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the 1.01 in 2020 dynasty rookie drafts. He was bad enough in the NFL that he lost his job to a 7th-round pick. He was also a poor athlete in an extremely fortunate situation in college. Johnson, interestingly, reminds me a lot of CEH.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

The hype around McMillan was never justified, in my opinion. There's essentially nothing but positive propaganda for him on social media, though, so it makes sense that most are so high on him. Like Johnson, though, I believe McMillan simply has too many red flags that I can't look past.

I want to point out first, though, that he could end up as a solid player and still not be worth his ADP. He's being drafted third overall, and as the WR1, in dynasty rookie drafts. He's a below-average athlete who got drafted to a poor offensive situation, though, and his film shows plenty of red flags that are being swept under the rug.

Can't get over some of Tetairoa McMillan's blunders and low-effort plays. Here he trips himself up on the most basic of releases. Sloppy footwork to trip over the ground before even starting his route pic.twitter.com/Z7GBjKT4m2

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

First things first. He didn't test at the 2025 NFL Combine. Instead, he ran a 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. There's a reason a lot of prospects do this -- it's because hand-timed 40s are always faster than laser-timed, because of the human reaction time element of it.

Here's a great article that explains that. The difference can be stark -- between 0.2 and 0.3 seconds faster for hand-timed 40s than laser-timed. It wouldn't have been difficult for Arizona to set up a laser-timing system for T-Mac, but that could have tanked his draft stock.

https://t.co/YKJODyj47D
Lists 4.55https://t.co/J4AEfbOjdc
Same here
Pro day 40's are intended to mislead because they're consistently faster than laser timedhttps://t.co/ig2nv8rV4w

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 24, 2025

As fantasy managers, we're constantly exposed to garbage data. McMillan's agent made sure everyone thought he ran a 4.48-second 40, but that's just not true. The film indicates that his speed is in the 4.6s at best, which aligns with the research linked above (adding 0.2-0.3 seconds).

Tetairoa McMillan doesn't pace his routes very well. Is this supposed to be trickery? He has one speed when he runs his routes. Either this DB is a star (he's not) or this route just isn't good. Being 6'4" doesn't make this better. pic.twitter.com/T0CEGBPaoG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

The argument that he performed well in college and is tall, so he must succeed in the NFL, is another flawed one. He doesn't have the vertical speed to win on deep routes unless the ball is put in harm's way for him to make a contested catch. He's praised as a route-runner, but I just don't see it on film.

Not sure what his deal is here. Starts giving up on his route before the play is over. QB is running for his life and TMac is already jogging. Terrible effort on a lackadaisical route. McMillan is the anti Malik Nabers. pic.twitter.com/DSSHVM2IWx

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

There are also some deeply concerning issues regarding his effort. On a team like the Carolina Panthers, which had a rough year last year on offense, this is even more worrying. If quarterback Bryce Young doesn't truly break out in 2025 and continues to struggle, T-Mac could be a big liability for his ADP.

McMillan is at his best over the middle of the field with the ball in his hands when he gets free releases off the line of scrimmage or can bully smaller, less athletic DBs with his size. That's not a pathway to good, sustainable production in the NFL. I'm not drafting him anywhere.

Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers

The situation Golden is in is terrible. There's an absolute mess of WRs on the Packers that don't tend to stand out from one another, and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur loves to spread the ball around as much as possible. He's indicated as much in past offseasons, though he was wrongfully ignored by the fantasy community.

#Packers HC Matt LaFleur on the pecking order of his WR room:

“I want to vomit every time I hear ‘No. 1 receiver,’ to be honest with you. It drives me crazy. That’s something that you guys talk about, I feel like we’ve got a bunch of them. I think the beauty of them is they’re… pic.twitter.com/nwsl2IQT6V

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 13, 2024

Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson (knee) when he returns, Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, Savion Williams, and Jayden Reed will all be competing for targets on what was one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league last season. That's pretty hideous stuff.

Jordan Love averaged just 16 pass completions per game in Weeks 12-17. I'm not interested in drafting him anywhere at his ADP, really. The Packers got a workhorse RB in Josh Jacobs and ran the ball WAY more in 2025 than they did in 2024. Love is overpriced in fantasy pic.twitter.com/6zdj3LiQVq

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 7, 2025

I also have major issues with Golden's profile. He just doesn't seem to have even a decent release package. Upon reviewing his film, I noticed an effective game plan that attempted to move him away from 1-on-1 coverage and into open space. He was also an inefficient receiver.

This is all Matthew Golden has. He's not even a one-year wonder; he's a four-game wonder. And those games all came with Isaiah Bond was hurt.

When Isaiah Bond was healthy, he was the true WR1 of the team https://t.co/3XAxMrCAIB pic.twitter.com/1ODyVyfwos

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 2, 2025

He wasn't great at earning targets in college, either. He didn't have a great overall season, and really only started to "break out" after Isaiah Bond's injury hampered his play. I can't imagine drafting Golden anywhere. From my analysis and research, he's just a bad player.

To counter all of the draft capital zealots within the fantasy community. Even if the (potentially fraudulent) 40 pushes him up to Round 1, he's still of the "better in real football than fantasy" archetype

His 0.188 career TPRR ranks 43rd of 48 Combine-invite WRs from this…

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 11, 2025

Golden is a bad prospect whose draft capital got massively boosted by the injury to Bond and the 40-yard dash performance. There's a huge laundry list of players with poor college efficiency (YPRR, TPRR, etc.) who excelled in the NFL, even after running blazingly fast 40-yard dashes. So I'm completely out on Golden.

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