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Ben Ruppert investigates Week 23 trends in Starting Pitcher K-rates. These risers and fallers present buying and selling opportunities for your fantasy squad.
RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.
Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.
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K-Rate Risers for Week 23
By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.
What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher. Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.
Brandon Finnegan, CIN
Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 30%
Brandon Finnegan has had plenty of ups and downs this season during his first full year as a starting pitcher. This season he has made 27 starts, and holds a 4.19 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.39 K/9, and a 4.19 BB/9 rate. Finnegan has thrown 154.2 innings so far this season, already 49.1 more than his career high of 105.1 set last season. During April Finnegan held a 3.86 ERA, and was looking like a solid bet to be a sleeper find among fantasy pitchers. However, after the calendar flipped to May things began to change. From May to the end of July, Finnegan posted a 4.94/5.79/5.25 ERA/FIP/xFIP, to go along with a 6.35 K/9 rate. He had plenty of games where he would walk too many hitters, causing his pitch count to get high and not allow him to pitch deep into games. During August, things seem to be different. This past month, Finnegan posted a 2.65/3.74/3.66 ERA/FIP/xFIP, with a 9.88 K/9 rate. So what has changed for the young lefty?
The biggest change Finnegan has made is the use of his changeup. Finnegan featured his changeup earlier in the season, but got to a point where he was unable to throw it effectively. He turned to his teammate Dan Sraily, who gave him some pointers on how to throw the change. “I started off the year well with it and then I hit a spot where I couldn’t stop cutting it. It was like a second slider. To get it back and working- if it wasn’t for Mr. Straily over there- I’d still be without a changeup” Finnegan said. The new an improved change has done wonders for Finnegan, and has seen his strikeouts rise just as his changeup is beginning to become effective. Below you will see his changeup usage and strikeout rate by month:
Now that Finnegan has mastered his change, the results have been promising. He holds a 2.65 ERA during the month of August, and has more reasonable matchups head against the Brewers and the Pirates. If you can, I would be buying Finnegan for your stretch run into the playoffs. While Finnegan still may get shut down, he should be good for a few more solid starts to end the year.
Verdict: Buy
Wily Peralta, MIL
Season K-Rate: 16%, Last 30 K-Rate: 23%
We have seen two very different versions of Wily Peralta this year so far. There’s the Peralta who put up a 6.68 ERA, allowing opposing hitters to hit .348 off of him with a 36.4% hard contact rate, and then there is the Peralta who we have seen this past month, who holds a 3.00 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .222, and a slightly lower 33.3% hard contact rate. After his start on June 11th, the brewers opening day starter was sent down to the minors with the return of Matt Garza, after giving up five hits and three runs in five innings. He was called for a start on August 9th against the Braves to take Junior Guerra’s spot in the rotation and hasn’t looked back. The question remains, is this just a hot streak or something more?
Peralta clearly figured something out in the minors. Upon his return, he was showing much improved velocity on his fastball. Before his demotion, when he held that 6.68 ERA, Peralta was pitching in the 94-95 mph range. Since his recall, he has been hitting the 96-98 mph range, reaching as high as 99 mph with some throws. He is pitching much more like he did during his 17-win 2014 season. The charts below show his increase in fastball velocity this season, and his velocity in 2014.
With this new fastball velocity, all of his other pitches become more valuable. This level of pitching is certainly sustainable moving forward, making Peralta a sneaky add down the stretch. His upcoming schedule however consists of the Cubs and hot-hitting Reds, so while he may be a risky start you can’t ignore the improvements he’s made. I would be buying Peralta.
Verdict: Buy
K-Rate Fallers
Danny Duffy, KC
Season K-Rate: 26%, Last 30 K-Rate: 19%
Things really started clicking this season for Danny Duffy after a tough season in 2015. In 2015 he held a 4.08 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 24 starts. Those rocky numbers led him to start this season in the bullpen for the first month and a half. It wasn’t until May 15th that he received his first start, throwing three innings of shutout ball as the Royals slowly built up his pitch count. He has rewarded the Royals with some top-level pitching. From June 1st onwards, he has held a 3.11 ERA, a 9.33 K/9 rate, and an 11.7% SwStr%, which would rank him 13th overall in the league (his season-long SwStr% sits at 12.8%, which ranks sixth in all of baseball). Over this past month, his K-rate has declined slightly, and he has allowed 11 runs in his past two starts. Is this time to panic with Duffy, or just a bump in the road?
His start at Boston was an absolute disaster. Fenway is a tough ballpark for pitchers, and it doesn’t help when you have an off game on top of that fact. He lasted only five innings, allowing seven earned runs and three HRs with a 1:1 K/BB ratio. All starters are prone to a bad start here and there, so we’ll give Duffy a pass in this outing. His next start came against the Tigers at home, and while he allowed four earned runs he showed plenty of positive signs. While he put up a 6.35 ERA during this outing, his FIP and xFIP sat at 3.15 and 2.34. His BABIP was extremely high also at 4.71. He struck out eight and walked only one during his five and two-thirds innings of work. This is an outing Duffy had to feel good about, even if the results weren’t there.
Regardless of his slightly lower strikeout rate over the past month, Duffy is a pitcher to invest in for the remainder of the season. His upcoming schedule consists of the Twins and Athletics, so you should feel good about starting him moving forward even with this bump in the road.
Verdict: Buy
Hector Santiago, MIN
Season K-Rate: 19%, Last 30 K-Rate: 13%
Hector Santiago has been unable to build off of his success in 2015, even before his trade to the Minnesota Twins. While he was with the Los Angeles Angels, Santiago seemed to have finally figured something out during the month of July. From April to June, Santiago held a 5.27 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 7.70 K/9. During the month of July before his trade, Santiago held a 1.78 ERA, to go with a 1.33 WHIP and 8.66 K/9. At the end of the month he was traded to the Twins, and has been unable to find his groove in his new home. Since the trade, he has held a 7.47 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and a 5.74 K/9 rate. He has been an absolute shell of himself. Is this the Santiago we will see moving forward, or will there be some light at the end of this dark tunnel?
Santiago has been tinkering with his approach since his arrival in Minnesota. One describing his delivery as “effectively wild”, he knew at some point he had to make some changes after putting up a walk rate of 4.00. Unfortunately for Santiago, he is clearly having a tough time making these adjustments. For the Twins, they would rather stick with the adjustments and take the results rather than have Santiago go back to his old deliver. “It’s something I’ve worked on in the past, but the last two weeks or so since I’ve come over, I’ve definitely put the foot down on it and tried to push myself to get to where I’m at,” Santiago said. “You’re definitely seeing results. The last couple games, the pitch count has been down and they’ve been quick innings, even when I give up some runs.” Too bad for Santiago, he has been giving up too many hits and runs to stay effective. In his time with the Twins he has given up 39 hits in 31.1 innings, while giving up 2.59 HR/9 in the process.
With the Twins willing to stick things out with Santiago, he cannot be trusted moving forward. While the changes he is making may turn out positive for him in the future, the results now are too poor to ignite any confidence in a fantasy owner who needs a good start. If you own him, he can be safely dropped for a streaming option. If you’re looking to stream, given his upcoming schedule (Indians, Mets, Tigers) he is not worth the start. Santiago is a safe sell.
Verdict: Sell
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