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RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.
Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.
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K-Rate Risers
By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.
What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher. Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.
Andrew Cashner, MIA
Season K-Rate: 19%, Last 30 K-Rate: 25%
New Marlins starter Andrew Cashner has seen his strikeouts rise 6% over his last six starts, posting a 33:8 K:BB ratio over that time period. During his career, Cashner holds a 7.48 K/9 rate, 8.6% swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and a 19.7% K-Rate. His average fastball velocity has sat around 95.5 mph over the past six seasons. This season, every single one of those metrics have decreased for Cashner. He holds a 7.28 K/9 rate, 7.3% SwStr%, 18.7% K-Rate, and his average fastball velocity is around 93.7 MPH. He has the highest ERA/FIP/xFIP of his career outside of his first taste of the majors back in 2010. So what’s going on with Cashner, and is his recent uptick in strikeouts a sign of things to come?
Cashner’s most successful major league seasons came in 2013 and 2014 with the Padres, when he threw for a 3.09 ERA and 2.55 ERA respectively. What did he do during those years that he hasn’t done the past two seasons? The first thing you notice is that during those years he didn’t strike out nearly as many hitters, with a 6.58 and 6.79 K/9 rate during those seasons. One thing he did more was throw strikes. His percentage of pitches thrown inside the strike zone (Zone%) during those two seasons were at 47.8% and 47%, which are the two highest totals of his career. This season, that rate is down to 43.1%, his lowest since 2010. He was also better at inducing soft contact; he held a 13.3% rate in 2013, which then jumped to 17.6 in 2014. He was also very good at this last season, when he posted a 17.6% soft contact rate. This season, that number is down to 12.9%. What happened? His hard contact rate jumped to 33.1%, which is the highest rate of his career.
To sum up, Cashner is throwing his fastball with less velocity, is getting hitters to swing and miss less, is inducing less soft contact, and hitters are hitting his pitches harder this season. He is throwing less strikes, and hitters aren’t chasing the pitches out of the zone. What he has going for him, is that Marlins Park has been more of a pitchers park this season than Petco Park, and his upcoming schedule after a tilt at Colorado (CWS, @CIN, KC, @NYM) looks promising. I would wait for Cashner to have a good start or two, then sell him to anyone interested.
Verdict: Sell
Lance McCullers, HOU
Season K-Rate: 30%, Last 30 K-Rate: 36%
Lance McCullers has done two things a ton this year: strike batters out, and walk them. His current K/9 rate sits at solid 11.79, while his BB/9 is a ridiculous 5.19. He has a 3.18 ERA, 2.75 FIP, and 3.13 xFIP, which means his current ERA is about right where it should be after posting a 3.22 ERA as a rookie last season. Fresh off of two straight 10 strikeout performances, McCullers is dealing right now and he needs to be bought in all leagues.
McCullers throws three pitches; a 94-95 mph fastball with movement, a changeup with a solid vertical drop, and his best pitch, the curveball, which batters whiff more on than any of his other pitches. He has thrown the curve 13.4% more this year compared to last (36.3% up to 49.7%). His wCB (curveball runs above average) sits at 21.4, making it by far his best pitch, and one of the best hooks in the league. His 12.7 SwStr% would have placed him tied for 10th in all of baseball last season with Jacob deGrom. His problem this year is his control, which is the only thing keeping him from being elite. He is routinely throwing upper 90s-100 pitches per outing, but has trouble making it far into games. He had as many 10 strikeout games in July as he did games with four walks (3). He has thrown nine wild pitches so far this season. There are six other pitchers with nine or more wild pitches, and all have thrown to at least 160 more total batters than McCullers.
Good news for McCullers is that each month, he has seen his K/BB ratio increase (May: 1.75 June: 2.15 July: 2.93), so his control seems to be improving. His upcoming schedule looks good , and Houston is a solid pitchers park. Go out and grab this strikeout machine if you can. I don’t see that rate declining anytime soon.
Verdict: Buy
*EDIT: McCullers left his start last night early with elbow soreness and is going for tests today. His verdict is now a Hold until we know more information.*
K-Rate Fallers
Julio Teheran, ATL
Season K-Rate: 22%, Last 30 K-Rate: 17%
Julio Teheran has had a solid bounce back year for the Braves this season. His current 3-and-9 record is more indicative of the Braves as a team than Teheran’s individual performance. He has a 2.81 ERA across 21 starts this season, with a 0.97 WHIP. He has posted the lowest BB/9 total of his career at 1.94, and worked his HR/FB rate down to 10.3%, after his disastrous total of 13% last season. While his strikeouts have dipped of late, there shouldn’t be anything to be too overly concerned with regarding Teheran’s abilities. He will not pitch to a sub-3.00 ERA the rest of the season, but still has all the tools to be an effective starter on your staff.
His strikeout rate this season sits at 22.4%, which is the best rate of his career. He has held hitters to a measly .204 batting average against, fueled by the increased usage of his Slider which is his nastiest pitch.
There are some troubling signs however for Teheran. His BABIP sits at .235, which is ridiculously low for a pitcher with a hard contact rate of 35%. It is expected that his BABIP will rise, which will cause his ERA to rise a bit. During the month of July, we have already seen this begin to happen after two five-run outings and an early exit in his last start. His FIP/xFIP of 3.69/4.05 support this claim also. Expect Teheran’s end of season ERA to settle right around 3.20-3.30. We have already seen the best he can offer, but he will still be a solid starting pitcher the rest of the season.
Verdict: Hold/Sell
Matt Moore, TB
Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 14%
There is reason to believe Matt Moore can still make improvements in his pitches post Tommy John surgery, but this year things still aren’t coming easy for the former top prospect. Over 21 starts this season, Moore has a 4.08 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP, allowing opponents to hit .248 off of him. His pitch count per game as normally been in the 100s, which is a good sign that he can pitch that long into games.
His problem however, is his declining K-Rate. Ever since his 10-strikeout game back on June 12th, the most strikeouts he has gotten in one game is six. What he has been doing instead, is getting more outs via ground balls/fly outs. Pitching for contact has been working for Moore lately; he had a July ERA of 2.41, collecting more ground ball/fly ball outs on average than any other month. His K/BB ratio last month however was 19:12, which does not bode well for long term success. He does not have one pitch that is too dominant or overpowering. His soft contact % is actually the second lowest of his career at 17.5%. Teams are hitting Moore fairly hard, but lately he has gotten lucky to not be roughed up in any outing. His FIP/xFIP sit at 4.49/4.67, and his SIERA is at 4.41. If you can sell Moore's recent success to an owner looking for some starting pitching help, make the move before Moore regresses back to his averages.
Verdict: Sell
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