Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Jean Segura to Phillies - Fantasy Impact


The Mariners' teardown continued apace on Monday as the rumors were finally announced as fact: Jean Segura is on his way to Philadelphia. Joining him in the better half of the state of Pennsylvania will be relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos. Meanwhile, Carlos "Smooth" Santana and former top prospect J.P. Crawford have been sent to Seattle.

While Nicasio and Pazos will provide bullpen depth for the Phillies in 2019, their chances of fantasy relevance are slim. Segura is obviously the headliner - cf. the, uh, headline of this article - but Santana and Crawford may have value as well in the wake of the deal.

There are other places to dissect what this means for the franchises on the actual field of play. However, in the interest of full disclosure: given my rooting interests, I am positively inclined toward this transaction. It feels like a solid win for the Phillies. Could it also be one for your fantasy team? Let's find out!

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Segura: A Fitting Name

Segura means "safe" in Spanish. It would have been difficult to imagine after his performance in 2015, but the 28-year-old shortstop has lived up to that moniker over the past three seasons. He's hit .300 in all three of those years. Only three other players can say that: Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Freddie Freeman. Segura's .308 average is tops among shortstops over that span, while his 273 runs scored and his 75 stolen bases rank third. He's also popped 41 home runs in that time, so he's not a liability in that category either, even if he can't get back to the career high of 20 he set with Arizona in 2016.

Citizens Bank Park plays a lot more like Chase Field than Safeco Field, so Segura will be well-positioned to take a run at that number. We know the average is reliable, and that will keep him at the top of the lineup, which makes runs bankable as well. He's stolen at least 20 bases in each of his six MLB seasons, and there's little reason to expect his seventh won't bring more of the same. What you're left with is a good, high-floor three-category shortstop who will probably crack 10-15 bombs, with a few bonus dingers plausible.

What also matters, and what we don't know yet, is the composition of hitters below him. Rhys Hoskins is a lock. Odubel Herrera probably is as well. Jorge Alfaro, sure. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess. The Phillies are open to trading basically anyone on the roster and have been seriously linked to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this winter. (They are also in on Patrick Corbin and probably every other player that isn't nailed down, but that's what happens when you have a decent number of holes, including the most important one - the flaming hole in the owner's pocket.) They probably will not get both of them, unless the universe has just decided it's time to shower me with happiness. But even one of those generational talents makes a huge difference to Segura's fantasy value. Harper instead of Nick Williams. Machado rather than Maikel Franco. These are major differences, folks. The truth is we can't say to a certainty what this trade means for Segura's outlook until we see what else Matt Klentak and company accomplish over the coming weeks or, god help us all, months.

 

Seattle's Haul

Santana, signed to a three-year contract last winter, winds up spending only one of those years in red pinstripes. His first and only season in Philly was a mixed bag. He did his thing - lots of walks, not a lot of strikeouts, solid counting stats (24 HR, 86 R, 82 RBI) - but after two seasons of hitting .259, he fell to a .229 mark in 2018. That left him barely a top-2o fantasy option at first base, and this deal doesn't help his fantasy value. Safeco is a pitcher-friendly park, and the Mariners don't figure to boast an imposing lineup as they rip their roster down to the studs. If Santana performs well anyway, he's an obvious July trade candidate.

The crux of this deal for the Mariners, instead, is Crawford. Highly regarded as he progressed through the minors after the Phillies chose him in the first round of the 2013 amateur draft, the soon to be 24-year-old has yet to make an impact at the major league level. The hope for Crawford was always that his glove and plate approach would allow him to focus his efforts on improving his hit tool and tapping fully into his power. That could still happen. Crawford's .214/.319/.393 MLB line certainly is not impressive, but it's also just 225 plate appearances, and he's dealt with a few injuries along the way.

The issue from a fantasy perspective is that Crawford has, from the jump, been a prospect who had greater value and utility in real baseball than in our game. He lacks a loud tool, and his ceiling is probably something on the order of .270 with mid-double digit totals in both home runs and stolen bases. For what it's worth, I expect him to reach that ceiling. That said, it's merely useful in some formats. While the team and park context we're dinging Santana for certainly apply to Crawford as well, it sounds like he's the Opening Day shortstop for Seattle, and the M's are likely to give him a long leash. The Phillies are trying to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2011; it follows that they would have less of an inclination to simply let Crawford sink or swim.

The winter meetings loom and they should kick a highly anticipated offseason that's already seen a few big moves into high gear. RotoBaller will be here to sort out the fantasy implications every step of the way. Until next transaction, friends.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Week 14 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 14... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Updated Week 14 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 14 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 14 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is a game-time decision. Will Fuller (hamstring) is expected to miss Week 14. Adam Thielen (hamstring) has officially been ruled out. Le'Veon Bell (illness)... Read More


Fantasy Football Mailbag - Q&A for Week 14

This article's content may vary week-to-week, but generally, it will be answering questions fielded from either the @RotoBallerNFL twitter account or my personal one (@RotoSurgeon). This week, the focus is on start/sit questions, and there were plenty. Every week, many of us struggle with which quarterback to start, or who to flex, and I am... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 14

Welcome to our Week 14 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Monday Night Fantasy Football Starts/Sits - Week 14

Finally, we had a good fantasy matchup last week. And now, as punishment, we get this. The Eagles against the Giants is a good rivalry game. But for fantasy? Not so much. Even key players Saquon Barkley and Carson Wentz have been severely disappointing in 2019. The game is not going to be something to... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 14 Will Fuller (hamstring) is expected to miss Week 14. Adam Thielend (hamstring) has officially been ruled out. Le'Veon Bell... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 14

In Week 13, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were the high-end options that had great matchups. Adams had a huge two-touchdown game while Hill only came up with 55 scoreless yards, falling victim to game flow as the Chiefs led from start to finish, scoring a defensive touchdown in the process. Several of the wide receivers... Read More


Week 14 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Week 14-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

The playoffs are here, and that means we're going to do things a little differently. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 14

Welcome to Week 14, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids

If there were a dozen people left in a survivor pool this past week, odds are those pools are down to just several. The upsets began Thursday when the Bills beat the Cowboys, and continued Sunday when the Dolphins and Redskins won as 10-point underdogs. If you're somehow still alive in your pool with just... Read More


Week 14 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are beginning in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning a championship.... Read More


Fantasy Football Playoff RB Handcuffs: Add Them Now!

The fantasy football postseason has begun, so it’s time to re-evaluate your depth, especially at running back. With only three weeks left on most fantasy scoreboards and each matchup possibly being your last, there is no more time for stashing players for potential contributions later. You also cannot waste roster space on guys who will... Read More


Fleaflicker's Most Added and Dropped: Week 14

Week 13 just served to remind us all that anything can happen in the National Football League and that you can't ever look past the New York Jets when you're trying to lose. The Cincinnati Bengals learned that lesson on Sunday, beating the Jets handily in a game that wasn't even as close as the... Read More


Playoffs Panic Room? Outlooks for Slumping WRs and RBs

As your fantasy football playoffs open, some of your projected starters have not performed up to expectations in recent weeks. But knowing their track records of production in the past and/or earlier this year, it may be hard to sit them. You want reassurance on some of these suddenly lackluster players before the postseason begins.... Read More