X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Jamie Steed's Bold Predictions for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

shane bieber fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Jamie Steed continues RotoBaller's Bold Predictions series with some outside-the-box calls for the 2023 fantasy baseball season.

Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider.

And the latter is what these ones are! Sort of. I'm not going to tell you I think Aaron Judge leads the league in home runs again this year. That's not exactly bold now, is it? I do think that each of these predictions has a legitimate chance of occurring this year but I'm not banking on them. They should offer some insight into what I'm looking at in terms of performance from the relevant names

Last year's predictions were a bit hit-and-miss with Max Stassi, Kevin Smith, and the Cardinals outfield all being letdowns. But Joe Ryan, David Robertson, and some Brewers hitters came good for me. As I don't like to wish ill on anyone, all predictions are positive upside ones (where possible). So here's hoping we can hit a couple of these outlandish predictions.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Esteury Ruiz leads the league in stolen bases and has more steals than runs or RBI

Unlike previous years, a speedy outfielder hasn't been excessively bumped up in drafts to the point he can only bust for your team. Billy Hamilton and Adelberto Mondesi ring any bells? Ruiz was set to do so but his ADP has been held in check to around the 260 mark. He's now been confirmed as making the A's Opening Day roster meaning those of us who drafted him can at least take a deep breath and relax.

I genuinely believe Ruiz can reach 50 stolen bases if, for no other reason, the A's have nothing to get excited about and will struggle to score runs so they might as well let Ruiz run wild on the bases. He's set to hit ninth in the order so he's not going the be much of a run producer unless he finds his way up the order. And he can flat-out run, ranking tied-13th in average sprint speed last year (29.8 MPH).

For context, Sean Murphy led the A's in runs (67) and Seth Brown led them in RBI (73) last year. They were the only two players with 50+ runs and RBI with Tony Kemp (55) being the only other member of the 50+ run club. If Ruiz can steal 50 bases, he might only wind up with ~40 runs and ~40 RBI, which is as much an indictment on the A's as it is optimism on Ruiz. The one thing that's for certain is Ruiz can fly!

Brusdar Graterol is a top-5 reliever

The Dodgers are set to enter the 2023 season without a single closer. Daniel Hudson was expected to be in contention but is set to start the season on the IL. Evan Phillips was excellent last year and while I do believe in his talent, he had a 6.68 career ERA prior to 2022. And reports surfaced during Spring Training that if the Dodgers were to go with one closer, it'd likely be Hudson or Graterol getting the role.

It's strange seeing someone regularly touch 100 MPH on his fastball and sinker to only have a 19.6% K% in the Majors, yet, that's what we have with Graterol. But his 21.8% K% last year was the highest since joining the Dodgers and he's got a respectable 3.64 ERA, 3.66 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA since moving to LA. Last year's 2.75 SIERA was third-best on the team among qualified relievers.

If we look at his pitch mix, a simple way for Graterol to be elite would be to focus more on the slider and sinker.

Pitch %age use Avg MPH AVG SLG wOBA Whiff%
Sinker 42.7% 99.7 MPH .188 .259 .232 15.4%
Cutter 27.4% 95.6 MPH .302 .372 .296 13.6%
Slider 19.3% 90.6 MPH .193 .342 .213 38.6%
4-seamer 10.7% 99.4 MPH .186 .467 .374 26.2%

It might be a bit simplistic but looking at his numbers, Graterol should just throw sinkers until he gets into a 2-strike count, then put the hitter away with a slider. With a 5.1% BB% last year, control isn't an issue and he has all the ingredients to make an elite reliever. It might need Gordan Ramsey to cook up everything properly and unlock his full potential. Still only 24 years old, Graterol has the makings of becoming a top-tier closer, and dare I say, a breakout is on the horizon.

 

Spencer Steer is a top-10 third baseman

Ruiz isn't the only exciting young player on a bad team I'm backing for a big 2023. I'm a big believer in Steer this year and it's nothing to do with the fact that's a catchy slogan, although that does help. But I feel he's being undervalued given his struggles in a small sample following his call-up to the Reds and his Minor League numbers are more noteworthy.

Steer was part of the Tyler Mahle trade and after his promotion to the Majors, hit just .211/.306/.326 with two homers, eight RBI, 12 runs, and no steals. He's set to open the season as the Reds starting third baseman and if he can perform as he did in the Minors, there's every chance he not only sticks in the lineup but he actually excels.

In 2021, Steer hit .254/.348/.484 with 24 homers, 66 RBI, 82 runs, and eight stolen bases (110 games) at the High-A and Double-A levels. In 2022, across Double-A and Triple-A, Steer hit .274/.364/.515 with 23 homers, 75 RBI, 80 runs, and four steals (106 games). There's a 25-homer bat in him and if he can hit above .260, he's already producing above league average. Third base lacks depth more than ever in fantasy so if Steer can have a breakout, his status as a starting corner infielder is almost nailed on.

 

Trent Grisham reaches 100 runs scored

Grisham hurt a lot of fantasy managers last year, after hitting .184/.284/.341, with 17 homers, 53 RBI, 58 runs and seven steals (152 games). But there's optimism for this year if you look closely. You might need to squint, but they are there.

Firstly, despite struggling last year, Grisham still played 152 games. So he gets plenty of playing time even when he's bad.

Prior to last year, Grisham had a .242/.334/.424 slash line in the Majors (242 games) and he still maintained his career 10.9% BB% last year, which ranked in the 83rd percentile.

Towards the end of Spring Training, Manager Bob Melvin hinted at Grisham leading off for the Padres and providing he can put up an OBP similar to pre-2022, he should stick there.

Then, there's Grisham's second half in 2022. We can see below how, although his numbers didn't really change much in the second half, he was hitting fewer ground balls and was hitting the ball a lot harder. That can only be a good thing, right?

Split PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA ISO HardHit% GB%
1st half 345 .190 .292 .330 .281 .139 24.2% 46.5%
2nd half 179 .172 .270 .363 .280 .191 44.2% 36.0%

The Padres are set to have some combination of Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and (at some point) Fernando Tatis Jr. hitting atop the order so as long as Grisham can perform well enough to stick in the leadoff spot throughout the year, reaching triple-digits runs scored isn't beyond the realms of possibility. Something only seven players achieved in the NL last year.

 

Shane Bieber wins the AL Cy Young

I didn't think this was much of a bold prediction but looking at the Vegas odds, it seems to be on the bold side. Heading into the season, Bieber is priced at +2400 to win the AL Cy Young, which makes him tied-11th favorite alongside Cristian Javier and Tyler Glasnow. For those of you who don't know, that means you'd get $240 back if you bet $10 on Bieber winning the Cy Young.

Considering he finished seventh in the voting last year, following a season in which he made only 16 starts due to a shoulder injury, his odds appear a little higher than I'd have expected. Bieber returned last year, made 31 starts (200.0 IP), and had a 2.88 ERA. His 25.0% K% was significantly down but so was his fastball velocity, which averaged 91.3 MPH (92.8 MPH in 2021 and 94.1 MPH in 2020).

Bieber proved he can perform without the 94 MPH fastball, relying more on his slider and cutter. As long as that trend continues, Bieber should have no problem being an SP1 in fantasy and he's shown he can be a workhouse so he doesn't need much to fall his way to pick up the award.

 

Garrett Mitchell is a top-20 outfielder

I feel like I've spent most of my offseason extolling Garrett Mitchell and with good reason. I won't bore you with even more in-depth coverage of Mitchell, which you can go and read by clicking here. So here are the cliffs notes on Mitchell.

He's very fast (Mitchell's 30.2 ft/sec average sprint speed ranked sixth amongst all MLB players in 2022 and he recorded the fastest "home to first" time last year at 4.01 seconds). Need proof?

He hits the ball hard (Mitchell had an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph with the Brewers).

He's shown he can perform at the highest level (Mitchell hit 311/.373/.459 with two homers, nine RBI, nine runs, and eight stolen bases, albeit in just 28 games).

The one negative is he hits the ball on the ground too much, with a 59.5% ground ball rate in the Minors last year. But Mitchell improved that to 39.4% in the Majors and teammate Christian Yelich has had a pretty decent career hitting the ball on the ground a ton. The speed is legit and sets a nice floor. If he can cut down hitting the ball along the floor as often as he did in the Minors, Mitchell is a star in the making.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Samuel Basallo

Exits Early with Hand Injury
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Travis Hunter

to be Every-Down Wide Receiver
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
Shedeur Sanders

Unlikely to Play in 2025
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Leaves Early on Saturday After Fouling Ball Off his Knee
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
Christian McCaffrey

RapSheet: Signs Pointing Towards Christian McCaffrey Playing in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Signs Fully Guaranteed Deal with Cleveland
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames
Carey Price

Canadiens Trade Carey Price to Sharks
Quentin Johnston

Scores Twice in Brazil
Justin Herbert

Spectacular in Win Over Chiefs
Marquise Brown

Sees Absurd Target Share Friday
Bobby Witt Jr.

Dealing With Back Spasms
Bobby Witt Jr.

Exits Early on Friday
Xavier Worthy

Injures Shoulder Early in Brazil, Questionable to Return
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Placed on Injured List With Quad Strain
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched on Friday With Back Tightness
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Play in Season Opener
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Questionable for Season Opener With Calf Issue
Tyreek Hill

Cleared for Week 1
Rasmus Hojgaard

Finishes Tied For Second at Omega European Masters
Tyrrell Hatton

Finishes Tied for 32nd at LIV Indianapolis
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Fifth at Omega European Masters
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied For Second in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Xander Schauffele

Finishes 42nd in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Tyler Glasnow

Scratched From Friday's Start for Undisclosed Reasons
Christian Kirk

Ruled Out for Week 1
Shohei Ohtani

Returning to the Mound on Friday
Kyle Finnegan

Lands on Injured List With Adductor Strain
Aaron Judge

Returns to Right Field on Friday
De'Von Achane

Without Injury Designation Heading Into Week 1
Christian McCaffrey

Seen Working on Side Field During Friday's Practice
Malik Nabers

Cleared to Play on Sunday
Willson Contreras

' Suspension Reduced, to Start Serving it on Friday
Kodai Senga

Mets Send Kodai Senga to Triple-A to Get Right
Chris Godwin

Officially Ruled Out for Week 1
Malik Nabers

' Reps Limited Friday Due to "Tight" Back
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card
Axel Sola

Alex Sola Set To Make His UFC Debut
Saquon Barkley

Scores Touchdown in Low-Yardage Outing
Jalen Hurts

Rushes for Two Touchdowns on Thursday
Javonte Williams

Salvages Inefficient Outing With Two Touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb

110-Yard Game Marred by Four Drops
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Expected to Return on Friday
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Exits With Knee Contusions
Will Smith

Unlikely to Play This Weekend
Shohei Ohtani

to Pitch on Monday
Jon Rahm

Looks to Prove His Importance on European Ryder Cup Team
Tommy Fleetwood

Among Leaders of European Ryder Cup Team
Brandon Sproat

to Start for Mets on Sunday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Close to Triple-Double Versus Serbia
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fills Box Score Against Turkey
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Shakes Off Minor Injury
E.J. Liddell

Inks Two-Way Deal With Nets
NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Mike Trout

Plans to Return on Thursday
Will Smith

X-Rays Negative on Will Smith's Hand
Will Smith

Exits With Hand Contusion
Jackson Chourio

in Lineup Wednesday Despite Hamstring Cramps
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP