X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Jamie Steed's Bold Predictions for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

shane bieber fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Jamie Steed continues RotoBaller's Bold Predictions series with some outside-the-box calls for the 2023 fantasy baseball season.

Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider.

And the latter is what these ones are! Sort of. I'm not going to tell you I think Aaron Judge leads the league in home runs again this year. That's not exactly bold now, is it? I do think that each of these predictions has a legitimate chance of occurring this year but I'm not banking on them. They should offer some insight into what I'm looking at in terms of performance from the relevant names

Last year's predictions were a bit hit-and-miss with Max Stassi, Kevin Smith, and the Cardinals outfield all being letdowns. But Joe Ryan, David Robertson, and some Brewers hitters came good for me. As I don't like to wish ill on anyone, all predictions are positive upside ones (where possible). So here's hoping we can hit a couple of these outlandish predictions.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Esteury Ruiz leads the league in stolen bases and has more steals than runs or RBI

Unlike previous years, a speedy outfielder hasn't been excessively bumped up in drafts to the point he can only bust for your team. Billy Hamilton and Adelberto Mondesi ring any bells? Ruiz was set to do so but his ADP has been held in check to around the 260 mark. He's now been confirmed as making the A's Opening Day roster meaning those of us who drafted him can at least take a deep breath and relax.

I genuinely believe Ruiz can reach 50 stolen bases if, for no other reason, the A's have nothing to get excited about and will struggle to score runs so they might as well let Ruiz run wild on the bases. He's set to hit ninth in the order so he's not going the be much of a run producer unless he finds his way up the order. And he can flat-out run, ranking tied-13th in average sprint speed last year (29.8 MPH).

For context, Sean Murphy led the A's in runs (67) and Seth Brown led them in RBI (73) last year. They were the only two players with 50+ runs and RBI with Tony Kemp (55) being the only other member of the 50+ run club. If Ruiz can steal 50 bases, he might only wind up with ~40 runs and ~40 RBI, which is as much an indictment on the A's as it is optimism on Ruiz. The one thing that's for certain is Ruiz can fly!

Brusdar Graterol is a top-5 reliever

The Dodgers are set to enter the 2023 season without a single closer. Daniel Hudson was expected to be in contention but is set to start the season on the IL. Evan Phillips was excellent last year and while I do believe in his talent, he had a 6.68 career ERA prior to 2022. And reports surfaced during Spring Training that if the Dodgers were to go with one closer, it'd likely be Hudson or Graterol getting the role.

It's strange seeing someone regularly touch 100 MPH on his fastball and sinker to only have a 19.6% K% in the Majors, yet, that's what we have with Graterol. But his 21.8% K% last year was the highest since joining the Dodgers and he's got a respectable 3.64 ERA, 3.66 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA since moving to LA. Last year's 2.75 SIERA was third-best on the team among qualified relievers.

If we look at his pitch mix, a simple way for Graterol to be elite would be to focus more on the slider and sinker.

Pitch %age use Avg MPH AVG SLG wOBA Whiff%
Sinker 42.7% 99.7 MPH .188 .259 .232 15.4%
Cutter 27.4% 95.6 MPH .302 .372 .296 13.6%
Slider 19.3% 90.6 MPH .193 .342 .213 38.6%
4-seamer 10.7% 99.4 MPH .186 .467 .374 26.2%

It might be a bit simplistic but looking at his numbers, Graterol should just throw sinkers until he gets into a 2-strike count, then put the hitter away with a slider. With a 5.1% BB% last year, control isn't an issue and he has all the ingredients to make an elite reliever. It might need Gordan Ramsey to cook up everything properly and unlock his full potential. Still only 24 years old, Graterol has the makings of becoming a top-tier closer, and dare I say, a breakout is on the horizon.

 

Spencer Steer is a top-10 third baseman

Ruiz isn't the only exciting young player on a bad team I'm backing for a big 2023. I'm a big believer in Steer this year and it's nothing to do with the fact that's a catchy slogan, although that does help. But I feel he's being undervalued given his struggles in a small sample following his call-up to the Reds and his Minor League numbers are more noteworthy.

Steer was part of the Tyler Mahle trade and after his promotion to the Majors, hit just .211/.306/.326 with two homers, eight RBI, 12 runs, and no steals. He's set to open the season as the Reds starting third baseman and if he can perform as he did in the Minors, there's every chance he not only sticks in the lineup but he actually excels.

In 2021, Steer hit .254/.348/.484 with 24 homers, 66 RBI, 82 runs, and eight stolen bases (110 games) at the High-A and Double-A levels. In 2022, across Double-A and Triple-A, Steer hit .274/.364/.515 with 23 homers, 75 RBI, 80 runs, and four steals (106 games). There's a 25-homer bat in him and if he can hit above .260, he's already producing above league average. Third base lacks depth more than ever in fantasy so if Steer can have a breakout, his status as a starting corner infielder is almost nailed on.

 

Trent Grisham reaches 100 runs scored

Grisham hurt a lot of fantasy managers last year, after hitting .184/.284/.341, with 17 homers, 53 RBI, 58 runs and seven steals (152 games). But there's optimism for this year if you look closely. You might need to squint, but they are there.

Firstly, despite struggling last year, Grisham still played 152 games. So he gets plenty of playing time even when he's bad.

Prior to last year, Grisham had a .242/.334/.424 slash line in the Majors (242 games) and he still maintained his career 10.9% BB% last year, which ranked in the 83rd percentile.

Towards the end of Spring Training, Manager Bob Melvin hinted at Grisham leading off for the Padres and providing he can put up an OBP similar to pre-2022, he should stick there.

Then, there's Grisham's second half in 2022. We can see below how, although his numbers didn't really change much in the second half, he was hitting fewer ground balls and was hitting the ball a lot harder. That can only be a good thing, right?

Split PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA ISO HardHit% GB%
1st half 345 .190 .292 .330 .281 .139 24.2% 46.5%
2nd half 179 .172 .270 .363 .280 .191 44.2% 36.0%

The Padres are set to have some combination of Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and (at some point) Fernando Tatis Jr. hitting atop the order so as long as Grisham can perform well enough to stick in the leadoff spot throughout the year, reaching triple-digits runs scored isn't beyond the realms of possibility. Something only seven players achieved in the NL last year.

 

Shane Bieber wins the AL Cy Young

I didn't think this was much of a bold prediction but looking at the Vegas odds, it seems to be on the bold side. Heading into the season, Bieber is priced at +2400 to win the AL Cy Young, which makes him tied-11th favorite alongside Cristian Javier and Tyler Glasnow. For those of you who don't know, that means you'd get $240 back if you bet $10 on Bieber winning the Cy Young.

Considering he finished seventh in the voting last year, following a season in which he made only 16 starts due to a shoulder injury, his odds appear a little higher than I'd have expected. Bieber returned last year, made 31 starts (200.0 IP), and had a 2.88 ERA. His 25.0% K% was significantly down but so was his fastball velocity, which averaged 91.3 MPH (92.8 MPH in 2021 and 94.1 MPH in 2020).

Bieber proved he can perform without the 94 MPH fastball, relying more on his slider and cutter. As long as that trend continues, Bieber should have no problem being an SP1 in fantasy and he's shown he can be a workhouse so he doesn't need much to fall his way to pick up the award.

 

Garrett Mitchell is a top-20 outfielder

I feel like I've spent most of my offseason extolling Garrett Mitchell and with good reason. I won't bore you with even more in-depth coverage of Mitchell, which you can go and read by clicking here. So here are the cliffs notes on Mitchell.

He's very fast (Mitchell's 30.2 ft/sec average sprint speed ranked sixth amongst all MLB players in 2022 and he recorded the fastest "home to first" time last year at 4.01 seconds). Need proof?

He hits the ball hard (Mitchell had an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph with the Brewers).

He's shown he can perform at the highest level (Mitchell hit 311/.373/.459 with two homers, nine RBI, nine runs, and eight stolen bases, albeit in just 28 games).

The one negative is he hits the ball on the ground too much, with a 59.5% ground ball rate in the Minors last year. But Mitchell improved that to 39.4% in the Majors and teammate Christian Yelich has had a pretty decent career hitting the ball on the ground a ton. The speed is legit and sets a nice floor. If he can cut down hitting the ball along the floor as often as he did in the Minors, Mitchell is a star in the making.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP