RADIO
Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 3 of 2024.
Welcome back RotoBallers to my weekly series High-Value Touches and Opportunities for Week 3 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. Injuries have been decimating teams, with Christian McCaffrey going on injured reserve, plus Deebo Samuel Sr., Cooper Kupp, Evan Engram, Isiah Pacheco, and several regular contributors.
We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line, but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations.
We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.
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High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
The Dolphins and Bills
With murkiness around the Dolphins backfield on Thursday night, De'Von Achane handled a 64.7 percent rush share and a career-high in rush attempts (22). Three of his 22 rush attempts came inside the 10-yard line, though he didn't convert any for a touchdown.
Achane's efficiency while handling more volume and the high-value touches leads to a scary high ceiling for him. Keep tabs on Raheem Mostert's injury and whether Jaylen Wright or Jeff Wilson Jr. eat more into Achane's workload than we saw in the short week against the Bills.
The visual below shows the Week 2 rushing leaders inside the 10-yard line.
In Week 1, Josh Allen and James Cook had two carries each inside the 10, with Allen scoring on both and Cook having zero. However, the touchdowns shifted toward Cook in Week 2, with him scoring three. Cook scored on his lone carry inside the 10, with one touchdown reception in the red zone and a massive breakaway run for a score against the Dolphins.
Since the Bills forced three turnovers while scoring efficiently, they only had the ball for over 23 minutes on Thursday. That meant Allen didn't need to do much on offense, with the sixth-fewest pass attempts (19) and the third-fewest carries (two) of his career.
Cook has been an efficient rusher and receiver, with the potential touchdown rate spike and high-value touches leading to boom games like Week 2. Buy high on Cook.
Other Notable Rushers Inside the 10-Yard Line
Besides Achane, we had eight other rushers with three or more carries inside the 10-yard line. That list includes Kyren Williams and Rhamondre Stevenson, who had three, plus Isiah Pacheco, Zack Moss, Jordan Mason, Derrick Henry, Brian Robinson Jr., and Travis Etienne with three. It's worth noting Carson Steele had two carries inside the 10, showing the Chiefs' willingness to give him the rock in high-value situations.
Pacheco, Robinson, and Moss didn't score a rushing touchdown on their attempts inside the 10, but sometimes that's fluky in the small sample of one game. Robinson and Moss play in a shared backfield, though they've been the lead rushers inside the 10-yard line. Unfortunately, Pacheco fractured his fibula after being bent backward in the contest against the Bengals. That may lead to more passing for the Chiefs while we're chasing the preferred backup.
The visual below shows the season-long rushing leaders inside the 10-yard line, with three or more carries.
Or it could open up high-value touches for Steele or Samaje Perine, with the veteran seemingly fitting more into the Jerick McKinnon role. Perine or a pass-catching running back might be the priority because there's a scenario where the Chiefs lean more on the pass without an effective rusher like Pacheco. However, Steele's two high-value rushes came in Week 2 with Perine having zero on the season.
It would make sense for the Chiefs to add a running back via trade or free agency, and they signed Kareem Hunt to their practice squad. With Nick Chubb injured in 2023, Hunt had 75 percent (No. 6) of the Browns' rush attempts inside the 5-yard line while scoring on 53.3 percent of his carries.
Hunt is more of a long-term play, but we've seen teams sign veteran running backs in the middle of the season and are ineffective. Lean toward Steele in the short term, but Hunt muddies it up.
Buy High On Rhamondre Stevenson and Kyren Williams
Stevenson and Williams lead the league in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, and their teams give them the high-value rushes. They're two of the 11 running backs garnering 100 percent of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line, with a minimum of three carries inside the 10.
The list below involves the rushers garnering 100 percent of their team's rush attempts inside the 5-yard line.
This would also suggest holding Blake Corum in most league sizes because the Rams have been feeding the opportunities to Williams. Among running back leaders in opportunities per game, Williams ranks second in snap share (91 percent) and third in team rushing attempts (78 percent), yet a lowly 6 percent target share.
Still, it shows us the Rams prefer to feature one running back, and Corum projects as the lead candidate. The concern would be the offensive efficiency without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp for an extended time.
Meanwhile, Stevenson has been earning a hefty workload, too, evidenced by an 80 percent snap share (No. 6), 64 percent rush share (No. 9), and a 13 percent target share (No. 16).
Antonio Gibson might be slightly less intriguing than Corum, but is a name to keep tabs on if Stevenson were to miss time, given how the Patriots currently run their offense, with the third-highest rush rate (58 percent) and being one of the slower-paced teams by averaging 30.7 seconds per snap (tied for 29th).
High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Bengals, Malik Nabers, and Some Noise
A name you don't expect to see involves Trenton Irwin leading the Week 2 pass-catchers in targets inside the 10-yard line. It's somewhat of an interesting week, where the scoring may have come from longer receptions because the rest of the Week 2 leaders likely didn't impact fantasy teams.
The visual below shows the target leaders in Week 2 inside the 10, which isn't much different than the season-long numbers since teams tend to run more than pass as they move closer to the end zone.
Malik Nabers broke out as expected from last week's WR/CB matchup article, including three targets inside the 10. The Giants fed Nabers early and often, leaning on their best offensive weapon like we hoped. Among the notables with two targets, George Kittle, Davante Adams, and Marvin Harrison Jr. stood out.
Harrison didn't catch either high-value target. However, he exploded with two longer touchdown catches of 23 and 60 yards. Though we don't discuss it in this article, receivers garnering opportunities downfield would be high-value.
Receivers typically don't average high amounts of yards after the catch & garner a high average depth of target.
WR/TE that averaged over 5 yards after the catch per reception & an ADOT of 10 or higher (min. 10 targets):
-A.J. Brown: 13 YAC/Rec, 10.4 aDOT
-Justin Jefferson: 11…— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 16, 2024
Besides the high-end names, Jalen Nailor and Andrei Iosivas had two targets inside the 10. Nailor scored on one of them while Iosivas's usage was interesting. That's because Iosivas garnered two of his four targets in Week 2, which came as high-value ones, making his day nearly meaningless without the touchdowns of two receptions for seven yards.
Joe Burrow targeted Irwin and Iosivas when they worked near the end zone, accounting for 16.7 percent of his pass attempts. That could suggest the Chiefs attempting to take away Ja'Marr Chase or Burrow taking what was open and available. Don't panic, but Chase's 22.9 percent first-read target share (No. 44) ranks second on the team behind Mike Gesicki at 25 percent.
Week 2 had a few interesting players leading in targets inside the 10-yard line.
1) Trenton Irwin - 4🤯
2) Malik Nabers - 3🔥
3) George Kittle - 2
4) Jalen Nailor - 2
5) Andrei Iosivas - 2👀
6) Marvin Harrison Jr. - 2🔥
7) Davante Adams - 2Quick takeaways:
-Iosivas had 2 of 4…— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 16, 2024
The additional concerns with Chase in the small two-game sample involve his target share falling to 21 percent compared to 26 percent (2023) and 30 percent (2022), plus his air yards per target gradually falling each season. That's evident in Chase's air yards per target going from 12.7 as a rookie (No. 27) to 9.0 (No. 77) in 2022 to 8.6 (No. 75) in 2023, and a career-low 6.3 (No. 65) in 2024.
Defenses adjusted to Chase and the deep passes, causing the Bengals and other offenses to target the routes at lower depths. Chase's efficiency has been solid with the lower air yards per target in 2024, but keep tabs on the Bengals' high-value targets inside the 10 moving forward, especially when Tee Higgins returns.
Joe Mixon led the Bengals with 38 rush attempts inside the 10, and there's a good chance the high-value opportunities shift toward the air unless they value Zack Moss similarly to Mixon.
Third and Fourth Down Opportunities
There's no denying Quentin Johnston had a brutal rookie season, leading many people to have a pessimistic outlook for him in Year 2. However, Johnston led pass-catchers in target share (71.4 percent) on third and fourth downs in Week 2. He led the Chargers with a 31.6 percent target share, producing efficiently by catching five of six targets for two touchdowns.
The image below shows the receiving leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 2 sorted by targets.
While the weekly target shares on third and fourth down might fluctuate, it's positive to see Johnston involved in the offense. That's evident by Johnston ranking second in first-read target share (38.5 percent), behind Cooper Kupp (52.1 percent), and ahead of elite target earners Justin Jefferson (37.9 percent) and Adams (37.8 percent).
We have the first-read target share leaders below through Week 2.
Last week was the week of the slot receiver, and Week 2 became the week of the tight end on third and fourth downs. Hunter Henry garnered the second-highest target share, with Kittle at third, Gesicki at fifth, and Brenton Strange at 11th in Week 2.
Strange filled in nicely with the late scratch for Evan Engram. The target share team leaders for the Jaguars in Week 2 included Strange and Gabe Davis at 23.3 percent. Strange ranks first on the team in targets per route run at 27 percent, with a minimum of 10 routes, making for a wild (or strange) stat.
Henry might be the most actionable since they don't have dominant target earners. However, the matchup against the Seahawks played a role since they rank first in PFF Coverage Grade due to several high-end defensive backs, leading to tight-end opportunities. The Patriots have been one of the most run-heavy offenses, and the passing volume will be limited.
Stock Up for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba had the eighth-highest target share on third and fourth down in Week 2. He had a massive 37.2 percent target share against the Patriots, leading the team, ahead of DK Metcalf at 32.6 percent. More notable is Smith-Njigba's seventh-best first-read target share (39.3 percent) close behind Metcalf at 42.9 percent (No. 4) in Week 2.
Smith-Njigba has been garnering more targets in crucial situations (third and fourth downs), becoming a priority for Geno Smith as a first-read option. Furthermore, his 79.2 percent route participation increased in 2024, with a massive jump in air yard share at 47.1 percent compared to 14 percent in 2023. Stock up for Smith-Njigba. Hopefully, you targeted him in drafts because he was mispriced this offseason.
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