RADIO
Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to Week 2 of the High-Powered Offenses column. Week 1 was full of surprises, not all good ones. There were several impactful injuries, a lack of usage among star players, and low offensive output, especially through the air. Fortunately, there were some delightful performances both in the NFL and for fantasy football. Remember, this article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal will be not to repeat offenses on a week-to-week basis, selecting new teams for you to target.
The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. A shoutout to Stathead and DraftKings for the information required to write this article.
Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 2. Let’s dig in!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Week 1 Offenses Recap
- Buffalo Bills - 34 points scored (third-most)
- Houston Texans - 29 points scored (seventh-most)
- Detroit Lions - 26 points scored (13th-most)
- Los Angeles Rams - 20 points scored (tied for 17th-most)
- Cincinnati Bengals - 10 points scored (tied for 28th-most) *cautioned before kickoff due to WR injuries/limitations
Overall, it was a pretty good showing in Week 1, except for the Bengals, who we knew could be in trouble with Tee Higgins out and Ja'Marr Chase on a pitch count. It's also worth noting that there were five special teams or defensive return touchdowns this week, and none of them came from these squads, which pushes the other teams up higher.
Week 2 Offenses to Target
- Dallas Cowboys
- Baltimore Ravens
- San Francisco 49ers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Los Angeles Chargers
Methodology
In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace - offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).
We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns that can provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data.
Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.
Metric #1 - Location
NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another every year. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road.
This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral side outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.
The expectation is that the home team will have the advantage and score more points because they do not need to travel and have the comfort of their normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of their stadium and the crowd support.
Metric #2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)
The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken.
This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.
We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.”
Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.
Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.
Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock causing them to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams who run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.
Metric #3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game
Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.
This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.
This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.
To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3.
Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.”
Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.
Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.
The expectation is that teams who score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.
Metric #4 - Offensive Yards Per Game
In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above.
Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.
As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023, where teams scored an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 340.1 yards per game; and 2021, where teams scored an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.
Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.”
Every week each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place them in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.
Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.
Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of their defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is that teams who produce more yards on offense will score more points.
Additional Measures
These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to targets based on the different thresholds.
We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.
We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.
Data Tables
Data Table #1 - Location
| Location | Average Points Scored |
| Home | 24.94 |
| Road | 20.88 |
Data Table #2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)
| Offensive Plays Per Game | Average Points Scored |
| Above Average (above 65.0) | 21.78 |
| Average (61.0-65.0) | 27.17 |
| Below Average (under 61.0) | 22.00 |
Data Table #3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game
| Offensive Touchdowns Per Game | Average Points Scored |
| Above Average (over 2.4) | 29.46 |
| Average (2.2-2.4) | N/A |
| Below Average (under 2.2) | 18.42 |
Note: Because touchdowns are a whole number, there won't be any teams in the "average" range from Week 1. Instead, the "above average" range will equate to three or more, and the "below average" will be two, one, or zero.
Data Table #4 - Offensive Yards Per Game
| Offensive Yards Per Game | Average Points Scored |
| Above Average (over 350) | 29.58 |
| Average (320-250) | N/A |
| Below Average (under 320) | 18.90 |
Note: Not a single team finished with between 320 and 350 offensive yards in Week 1, so there is no data there yet.
Data Takeaways
We officially have data for the 2024 season, which is exciting. We only have one week's worth, so we'll need to be cautious about concluding just yet, but it'll give us a starting point.
Unlike last year, the home teams came out swinging in Week 1, boasting a 4.06-point advantage over their opponents. It was a wide range of outcomes here as five of the top six highest-scoring teams were at home, with Dallas as the exception, while three of the four lowest-scoring teams were also at home, with Carolina as the lone road squad.
With several marquee offenses traveling to their opponents' stadium to play in Week 2, it'll be interesting to see if this leans the other way.
The most points scored in any subcategory came from the "above average" range in offensive yards per game. It was only 0.16 points higher than the "above average" range in offensive touchdowns per game, but it's interesting to see the correlation between yards and points so strong. Only 11 of the 32 teams produced more than 350 offensive yards, with all of them except one scoring at least 27 points.
Similarly, 13 franchises found the end zone three or more times, 11 of which scored at least 26 points. Those two predictors remain good bets each week.
Lastly, offensive plays per game were a mixed bag because several offenses trailed and kept possession of the ball long enough to generate more plays, but the quality of those plays was diminished while there were some one-sided contests where leading teams bled the clock. We'll see how this category unfolds in the coming weeks with fewer blowouts and more offensive output.
Week 2 Offenses & Players To Target
Offense No. 1 - Dallas Cowboys
It's no surprise that the Cowboys handled the Browns with ease on Sunday. It's also not unexpected that their offensive output was lower when you consider the quality of Cleveland's defense and the lopsided victory. It never set up well for a big day. However, this week at home against the Saints looks a lot better.
It's difficult to conclude anything from the Saints defensively because they were playing the hapless Panthers. Nevertheless, there are plenty of reasons to feel confident Dallas will match or exceed their 33-point output from Week 1.
In just 60 plays, they racked up 265 offensive yards and two offensive touchdowns to go along with four field goals and a punt return to the house. They'll be pushed more this week, requiring them to keep airing it out and ending drives in touchdowns.
The obvious: CeeDee Lamb. The one true stud from a fantasy perspective is Lamb. Despite a slow start, he's an every-week option. Dak Prescott, who recently received a large sum of money, isn't far behind after the way he finished last year. He warrants a spot in your lineup after about six to eight other signal-callers.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Brandin Cooks: Cooks entered the year as their No. 2 receiver, but potentially their No. 3 option behind Jake Ferguson, who is dealing with an MCL sprain in his knee.
While Ferguson could be active on Sunday, it's unlikely he'll be as effective, pushing Cooks up the depth chart. Cooks already found the end zone in Week 1, which he's prone to do. Plus, we've seen the occasional blowup game, so he's a great flex option against New Orleans.
Player No. 2 - Ezekiel Elliott: The battle between Rico Dowdle and Elliott will continue. That probably says more about the lack of competition than anything. That said, we know Elliott is a good bet for work at the goal line, where he still performs at a high level. Betting on a touchdown or two with multiple receptions is a winning strategy, keeping him in the mix as a top-30 back.
Offense No. 2 - Baltimore Ravens
Knocking off the defending champs on their turf is always a challenge. The Ravens were a toe out of bounds away from going for a two-point conversion and accomplishing that feat. Although they came up short, it was an impressive performance, especially from Lamar Jackson, who had to be Superman at times.
They ran a ton of plays, 74 to be exact. That'll almost certainly be an outlier, but their defense didn't look as unbeatable last season. Plus, their offensive line looked disjointed, so they may be running more plays later in games to lock down wins instead of just bleeding the clock.
They racked up 452 yards but only scored twice, resulting in 20 points. Returning home to host the Raiders feels like a nice bounce-back spot for Baltimore and their offense.
The obvious: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Derrick Henry mostly delivered in Week 1. Jackson ran for over 110 yards, Henry found pay dirt early before the game script turned on him, and Flowers earned 10 targets as the No. 1 wideout. You'd expect Henry to get more carries, especially in the second half. You'd also predict Flowers catches more than 60% of his passes, given his aDot of 4.6.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Mark Andrews: It was a rough week for Andrews, who was smothered by the Kansas City defense. Something he's all too familiar with. It's the fourth time he's been held under 50 yards in five meetings, so credit goes to the opponent in this scenario.
The Raiders didn't have to contend with a legitimate tight end last week, but they'll face two against the Ravens. Andrews deserves another chance to show he was worth an early draft pick this week.
Player No. 2 - Isaiah Likely: Believing in Andrews does not have to come at the cost of Likely. Sure, that means his 9/111/1 line is probably unrepeatable, but six grabs for 70 yards is entirely possible. He's also a threat in the red zone. There's no reason to fade either of these two. They're both top-10 tight ends.
Offense No. 3 - San Francisco 49ers
No superstar running back, no problem. The 49ers have made a living offing undrafted gems, particularly tailbacks. Jordan Mason becomes the latest to support that trend. He carried the load en route to a convincing win over the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets.
It was never close, mostly because New York couldn't sustain drives. As a result, the 49ers ran 70 plays, which is much higher than their typical plays run.
They scored 32 points, clearing 30 as they so often do. They also produced 401 offensive yards but found the end zone just twice, settling for five field goals. After a highly efficient 2023 campaign, some regression is natural, but failing to convert any of their five field goal drives is unusual.
Traveling to Minnesota, where they'll compete against their old friend Sam Darnold, who was with San Francisco last year, in a dome, positions them to go off.
The obvious: Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle form three members of a deadly quarter that typically includes Christian McCaffrey. We're still unclear whether he'll play, but it's trending as if he'll miss another week. That's good news for these three as it reduces the target competition and increases their odds of coming through individually. All three are locked in.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Brock Purdy: It wasn't an ideal fantasy day for Purdy, who threw for 231 scoreless yards, but they had no reason to pass the ball in the second half. Moreover, five fields and both touchdowns coming on the ground are unlikely to occur again. He remains a high-end streamer who can throw three or more touchdowns in any game.
Player No. 2 - Jordan Mason: If McCaffrey gets ruled out, Mason becomes almost a must-start. He toted the rock 28 times for 147 yards and a score, crushing a well-respected New York defense. He'd be all set for another sizeable workload if he's the starter. If CMC is back on the field, things get more complicated for Mason, who'd be a riskier flex option.
Offense No. 4 - Philadelphia Eagles
Brazil welcomed the two green teams with open arms and received a highly competitive matchup with plenty of fireworks. We shied away from the Eagles and Packers in Week 1 to some degree because traveling to other countries to play hasn't historically been a positive for teams. However, perhaps the advanced preparation because it was Week 1 helped.
Regardless of the reason, Philly came to play. It didn't look good early with back-to-back turnovers on their opening two drives. Fortunately, they stayed the course and hung 34 points on the cheeseheads. They were one of only three teams to exceed all three thresholds with 74 offensive plays, 410 offensive yards, and four offensive touchdowns.
They'll return to Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday to celebrate their victory and host the Falcons, who looked abysmal on offense with a hampered Kirk Cousins.
The obvious: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith all did their damage in Brazil. However, the nod goes to Barkley, who wasted no time getting comfortable and showcasing his talents with a hat trick of touchdowns. Hurts and the receivers may take one or two of those away this week, but all four can co-exist.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Dallas Goedert: Historically, the man left without a chair when the music stops has been Goedert. As tight ends go, four receptions for 31 yards won't kill you, but it's not super helpful either. He's likely to be around those numbers against Atlanta, but he always has a shot to score, which keeps him around the top 12.
Offense No. 5 - Los Angeles Chargers
The last offense to spotlight this week is the ground-and-pound Chargers. It's not the ideal philosophy for fantasy, but there's still value to extract. It also took them some time to start clicking, which makes sense, given the number of new personnel and coaching staff.
Later in the game, they looked better, especially in the fourth quarter. They were finishing drives and moving the ball well. They ran 54 offensive plays, generated 316 offensive yards, and scored twice for a total of 22 points.
Additionally, their offensive line is one of the best in the league, allowing them to have their way against the lowly Panthers. It's unfortunate to pick on the Panthers, but it's the logical decision.
The obvious: J.K. Dobbins shocked the world with a huge second-half performance after just five yards rushing in the first. He ended the contest with 10 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions for four yards. It's not to say that Gus Edwards, who had 12 touches, wasn't involved, but that Dobbins was far more explosive. It's worth chasing his Week 1 output.
Players to target:
Player No. 1 - Ladd McConkey: Rookie wide receivers often peak later in the season because they improve their skills and carve out more playing time. While that's still possible for McConkey, he might also be good now. He profiles as somewhat of a Zay Flowers type of wideout who will thrive on short area passes with high volume, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.
He's not quite in the top-36 range yet, but he led the way in receptions (five), receiving yards (39), and receiving touchdowns (one) in his debut, making him a deeper shot to take.
Player No. 2 - Justin Herbert: It's a similar story for Herbert, whose 26 passing attempts were a significant drop off from his usual number. However, he completed 65% of his passes and averaged 5.5 yards per attempt. He also found McConkey for that late score, so there's some reason for optimism against Carolina, who got torched by Derek Carr.
Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 2. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.
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