RADIO
The NBA regular season is over, but the playoffs are just getting started! The next two nights we have two play-in games as the 7-10 seeds duke it out for the final two seeds in each conference. Each 7 seed plays each 8 seed with the winner securing the 7th seed in the postseason tournament while each 9 seed plays each 10 seed in an elimination game. Then later this week the loser of the 7-8 game will face the winner of the 9-10 game with the final playoff berth on the line.
I am going to give you a pick for each of these four games. It might be against the spread, or a total, depending on which angle I like the best.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA play-in games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, April 11th, and Wednesday, April 12th.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Regular Season Overall Record: 151-137-2
- Against the Spread: 76-68-2
- Game/Team Totals: 18-27
- Moneyline Parlay: 20-26
- Teasers: 34-16
NBA Betting Picks: Play-In Games
Minnesota Timberwolves (+8) @ Los Angeles Lakers (231 total)
Season Series: Minnesota 2-1
The Lakers are the biggest favorite of the four play-in games. They're rounding into form at just the right time, while the Timberwolves are mired in turmoil after the Rudy Gobert incident. Gobert won't play in this one and neither will Naz Reid or Jaden McDaniels. I like the Lakers to win, but I don't trust them enough to lay that many points.
LeBron James YEAR 20!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/bMdd9V0qUS
— LakeShowYo (@LakeShowYo) April 5, 2023
I am looking at a game total here instead. This total is on the rise, so I wish I had locked it in a little sooner this morning, but I still think this game ends up going over. The first two meetings between these teams went well under this number, but remember that the Lakers have not been healthy for most of the season and the Wolves didn't have KAT for the majority of the year, either.
No Gobert in this one means we get KAT sliding over to center and probably a faster pace from Minnesota as a result. Minnesota is likely more efficient on offense without Gobert and less equipped to handle LeBron and AD in the paint without him. I think this game ends more like the third meeting between the two teams (just a few weeks ago) that finished at 234 points than either of the first two matchups early in the season.
The Pick: OVER 232.5 points (-110)
Atlanta Hawks (+5) @ Miami Heat (228 total)
Season Series: 3-1 Miami
The Heat have had Atlanta's number this year as you can see, but their games have varied quite a bit in terms of how many points have been scored. So I am ruling out a total pick right away because you just never know what you're going to get from Miami in terms of their offense production.
Despite being five-point underdogs here, I do think Atlanta has a chance in this one. Miami is the better defensive team for sure, but they can struggle to score at times and they become awfully reliant on Jimmy Butler in big games. So as Butler goes, so go the Heat to an extent.
I actually think Miami probably pulls this one out, but I think the Hawks have enough firepower to keep this one close and they force Miami to make their free throws in the closing minutes to close them out. I don't love this bet, but if I have to pick a side I'm taking the Hawks and the points.
The Pick: Hawks +5 (-110)
Sports Betting Promo Offers
Featured Promo: Get any VIP Betting Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!
Chicago Bulls (+5) @ Toronto Raptors (214.5 total)
Season Series: Toronto 2-1
The other Eastern Conference matchup is an elimination game with the loser heading home and the winner taking on the Hawks or Heat for the final spot in the tournament.
The Raptors came on late in the season and the trade for Jakob Poeltl at the deadline really firmed up the center position for them, increasing their rebounding and defense while adding another competent offensive player, too.
Toronto is by far the more balanced squad of the two teams. The duo of Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet do a lot of the heavy lifting, but OG Anunoby, Poeltl, and Gary Trent Jr. can all chip in as needed, too.
Chicago has been an enigma to me all season. They clearly missed Lonzo Ball this year and they failed to get much out of their role players to support their trio of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic. They underperformed quite a bit compared to their preseason expectations, but they didn't sell at the deadline and managed to squeeze their way in here as the #10 seed.
I won't rule out the Bulls, not while they have a competitor like DeRozan leading the way. They've been playing up against good competition all season and have an impressive list of wins against good teams. I won't pick Chicago to win outright, but like Atlanta, I think they'll make this one incredibly close.
The Pick: Bulls +5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (228.5 total)
Season Series: New Orleans 3-1
I've been a huge backer of the Thunder all season, but they'll have their work cut out for them here as the Pelicans have picked up steam just in time to make a playoff run of their own.
I would normally take the underdogs here, but I am simply not sure the Thunder care all that much about making the playoffs. The Pelicans, on the other hand, looked like a potential contender for the first several months of the season until Zion Williamson went down and expectations were higher on that team in terms of a playoff run.
I am skipping the spread, though, and going after another total here. Three of the four times these teams met, the total was well under 228 (203, 203, and 206) with the other game being a 253-point overtime game. I am going to call that OT game the outlier and that the more likely result is the under here. While OKC is an uber-talented young offensive team, the Pelicans will want to slow this one down and grind up OKC in the paint with Jonas Valanciunas and Brandon Ingram in the half-court.
I think the Pels win here and that they do it mainly behind the strength of their defense. We are going under this total at 228.
The Pick: UNDER 228 points (-110)
Favorite Money Line Parlay - Lakers + Pelicans = (-111 DK)
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller Discord on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!
