RADIO
While football was king yesterday, the NBA takes center stage tonight with only one football game (albeit a pretty important one between the Rams and Cardinals) to compete for our attention. Friday's picks went 3-1 and my overall record for the season is trending back in the right direction. If you see me picking similar teams over and over again, it's because I like winning and I use the data from my models and the trends to make the highest percentage plays every night. If you're looking for someone to pick every game every night, you can probably find someone out there doing that. But I'd rather find 3-5 spots I really like and give myself a better chance at having a positive night than try to predict every single game.
We have nine more games tonight on the NBA docket tonight. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, December 13th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 46-51
- Against the Spread 25-16
- Over/Under 16-17
- Teasers/Parlays 5-18
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Golden State Warriors (-4) @ Indiana Pacers (213.5 total)
So the Warriors burned me on Saturday when I took them to cover a tight spread against the Sixers on the road. They really fell apart down the stretch and the Sixers played some really good defense on Steph throughout the game, but especially in the fourth quarter as he was visibly frustrated and was forcing some bad shots and turning the ball over.
The Pacers are...well, they aren't the Sixers. Despite having a solid nucleus of talent with Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner, they've started just 12-16 this season and are already rumored to be shopping LeVert and/or Turner on the trade market. They have won three straight against some decent competition (Wizards, Knicks, and Mavericks) but they're just incredibly inconsistent this year and I don't trust them one bit.
Despite the loss to Philly, the Warriors are still 5-2 as road favorites with an average margin of victory over five points. That's right about where we need them tonight, and I'm going back to the well on Golden State covering here - I just think they are considerably better and will be anxious to bounce back from a tough loss.
The Pick: Warriors -4 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Phoenix Suns (-3.5) @ L.A. Clippers (210.5 total)
From one really good team to another, let's talk about the Phoenix Suns, who other than a loss to Golden State last week continue to beat everyone even without a healthy Devin Booker or Deandre Ayton.
The Suns should be more heavily favored here. They could get Ayton back tonight while the Clippers look likely to be without their best player Paul George. Without George this season, the Clippers have a negative net rating and he means so much to that team on both ends of the floor. The Suns are a well-oiled machine right now and as long as Chris Paul is there to pull the right levers - this team finds a way to score enough points and continues to smother opponents with some excellent defense.
How about this trend - the Suns are 7-0 as road favorites this season with an average margin of victory of 12.7 points! I like betting on good teams and that's why I'm backing the Warriors and Suns tonight because I think both of them are a good bit better than their opponents in these matchups.
The Pick: Suns -3.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Washington Wizards (+4) @ Denver Nuggets (215.5 total)
If you check the model, you'll see there are several other games where my totals are a good bit different from Vegas, but I'm having a hard time finding the trends and recent data to back up all those plays. The one game that still stands out to me is this one. Denver has been going over their totals lately and playing really well on offense despite constantly having someone out of the lineup. That's a testament to how good Jokic is and how much he makes his teammates better as well as how solid their offensive scheme is.
But I still can't get away from an under here. This game is going to be SO slow and Washington has struggled on offense lately. I could be dead wrong, but a seven-point difference between the projected total and current total makes me want to dig in on the under. If Denver goes nuts and can go over again, then maybe I need to rethink my process a bit and adjust for their recent play more. I think the Nuggets win here, but that Washington can slow them down enough for this game to go under.
The Pick: UNDER 215.5 (good down to 213.5) -110 DK Sportsbook
NO TEASER OR PARLAY PICKS TODAY!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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