RADIO
It's officially the All-Star Break and tonight we get one of the most fun exhibitions in professional sports as eight MLB sluggers will try to hit as many home runs as they can in the annual Home Run Derby. I remember watching these as a kid with guys like Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Thome, and Frank Thomas going after it. Today's format sets up a bracket where hitters have to advance through two rounds in order to make it to the finals, so it's not simply a matter of how many home runs they hit in total on the evening. This format makes for some great chances to bet as well and I'm going to explain my process a bit and give you a few wagers that I will be placing on tonight's contest.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for the Home Run Derby contest on Monday, July 10, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's have some fun with these bets!
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An Analytical Approach?
Listen, the nerd in me loves to crunch the numbers and I was looking for some data points to analyze before making my picks today. I figured you would appreciate it if I explained my process a bit here as well, so you know I am not just going with my gut on certain players or making lazy recommendations based on surface stats or the ole "eye test."
I pulled some stats for all eight players involved and I primarily analyzed the barrel rates, pull rates, fly ball rates, hard contact rates, average exit velocity, and expected home runs (both overall and in T-Mobile Park).
The tricky part is deciding how to weigh all these statistics since many of them overlap (hard% and EV, for example). Barrel rates are really handy because they incorporate both launch angle and exit velocity. Barrels turn into home runs about two-thirds of the time, so the better the barrel rate, the more likelihood of more home runs.
Pull rates are something I wanted to experiment with after reading a really well-written article by my friend Eric Samulski. He discussed how there could actually be a sweet spot for pull rates between 30-40% that could be ideal for home run hitting. We want guys who pull the ball pretty often as those pulled balls are often hit harder in terms of exit velocity, but we also don't want guys who are too pull-heavy because they can end up popping the ball up or rolling over top of it and grounding out, too.
The last thing I looked at was some expected statistics to see if some of these players should have more or fewer home runs based on the quality of contact they have been making in the first half. Baseball Savant also provides this number for each ballpark as well, giving us a sense of whether or not certain hitters are benefitting or being held back by the dimensions of their home park.
The Results of the Research
This field is strong and I think only two of the eight hitters really don't deserve to be in consideration tonight. Let's whittle things down by eliminating a couple of guys right off the bat (pun intended).
Adley Rutschman is awesome and I have him on a few different fantasy teams. He is having a great season and is quite possibly the best-hitting young catcher we have seen in the last decade. That being said, I think he's not suited for this competition at all. He has by far the lowest barrel rate (6.7%) and has only 12 home runs at the break. He has the lowest pull rate, average exit velocity, and hard contact rates, too. He's a great real-life hitter who can hit line drives and doubles for days, but we have seen in the past that these types of hitters can struggle to turn on their "home run swing" when they need it in this competition.
The other guy I am crossing off is Julio Rodriguez. The second-year stud has just 13 homers at the break, the second-lowest barrel rate at 9.8%, and the lowest FB% at 33.7%. He strikes me as another excellent young hitter who you want to build a franchise around, but not one of the seasoned HR-hitting pros that you want to bet your hard-earned money on tonight. Yes, he finished second last year and took Pete Alonso out in the semifinals, but he simply hasn't looked as good this year as he did last year and I think coming into this thing in a groove matters.
Pete Alonso’s HR last night was the 275th extra-base hit of his major league career.
He breaks a tie with Lucas Duda and is now 14th among all-time #Mets in XBH.
Michael Conforto is next on the list with 277.
— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) July 7, 2023
Now, before we get to those who popped in the research the most, we should acknowledge that experience matters here, too. And so when I tell you that Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero (the two betting favorites) look worse than the rest of the field based on their first-half statistics, understand that both of them have participated in this contest before (Pete having won twice, barely beating Vlad back in 2019). Pete is having a great year for dingers, coming into the contest with 26, tied for the most among participants with Mookie Betts and Luis Robert. Jr. Meanwhile, Vlad has only 13 HR at the break, though he has the best average exit velocity of the bunch at 94.7%.
I'm not sure there is much value in betting on either of the favorites at +300 (Pete) and +370 (Vlad) and so if the stats are suggesting some of the newcomers are worth a look, I am willing to listen.
Luis Robert Jr. has been incredible so far this year and is finally healthy and having the season that so many thought he could. His 15.9% barrel rate is the second-best of the group and 53.8% of his home runs have been "no-doubters" which is a label applied by Baseball Savant to suggest that they would have gone easily out of any park in the league.
Luis Robert Jr. cranks his 4th home run in three games.
He ranks 2nd in the AL in HR. pic.twitter.com/KkVYc48lBk
— MLB (@MLB) June 27, 2023
Mookie Betts is a surprise, I suppose, in that he has 26 home runs at the break and it is not typically considered a big-time home run hitter. However, he is an intriguing candidate here as he has the highest average launch angle, highest fly ball rate, and highest pull rate of any hitter. Every one of his 26 dingers this year has been hit to left or center field, which makes me think he's the type of pull hitter who could do some damage in a contest like this. But does he have the strength and endurance to hang with the bigger guys?
Future Home Run Derby Champion? 🔥
Mookie Betts 2+ HR’s +3900 ✅pic.twitter.com/alz6hnY7js
— Bookmakers Review (@BMRReviews) July 8, 2023
I think the most compelling first-round matchup by far is Adolis Garcia vs. Randy Arozarena. Both of these guys are dark horses to win tonight that I like a bit and it's a shame one of them will be eliminated right out of the gates. Garcia has the best barrel rate of the bunch at 16.4% and the biggest increase (+6) from his actual HR total (23) to his expected HRs at T-Mobile Park (29). He rates near the top of the group in all the stats I mentioned in the opener, too.
ADOLIS GARCIA SHOULD BE IN THE HOME RUN DERBY. PERIOD.
@Rangers | #StraightUpTX | 📺: BSSW pic.twitter.com/JWr1DPpP8h— Bally Sports Southwest (@BallySportsSW) July 3, 2023
I'm sure Aroz won't go quietly either, his stats are all really impressive, and just a tick below Garcia in most categories. I lean toward Garcia here, but the winner of this matchup is going to be a tough out for Robert Jr. in the second round (assuming he cruises over Rutschman).
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MLB HR Derby Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Outright Winners: Luis Robert Jr (+500), Adolis Garcia (+700), Mookie Betts (+1100)
I really do think we see a new champion today, even as good as Pete is in these things. One unit on each player means that we still go +2 units if Robert wins and we would be +4 on a Garcia win. Mookie is a long shot, but man those odds are attractive and he checked almost all the boxes. The bracket sets up to where Mookie would have to beat Vlad and Pete on the same side, which is why his odds are so long, but I still think he's worth a shot.
First-Round Matchups: Mookie Betts (+175) over Vladimir Guerrero
Vlad could easily get up for this contest and has as pretty of a swing as anyone, but I like the odds here on the underdog Mookie and the fact that he rolls into this competition with plenty of momentum.
Player Total Home Runs: Adley Rutschman UNDER 20.5 HR (-125), Luis Robert Jr. OVER 38.5 HR (+100)
The only really bad mismatch in round one is Robert Jr. vs. Rutschman in my opinion. As I mentioned before, I think Adley struggles to hit home runs in this thing, he's just too natural of a line-drive hitter. So if we think Robert cruises in round one and is then locked into a tough matchup in round two against Aroz/Adolis then I think it's reasonable to think he can hit 39 or more between those two rounds.
Have fun with this stuff and enjoy the contest tonight!
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