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Yesterday was one of the most tilting DFS days I’ve had in a while. I had a two percent owned MacKenzie Gore leave for injury 80 pitches in, and a four man Rangers stack get dominated by Reid Detmers. I still came in the top 20 of the $50 on FanDuel, but what could of been is so upsetting. Back to props today. We will attack a few spots I usually wouldn't today as we have some pitchers in some excellent spots with value on their lines. I am looking for a sweep heading into the weekend, so let's get to it.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, August 17, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
George Kirby OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
George Kirby will face the Kansas City Royals in the first game of the day today. On the season Kirby has a 3.65 SIERA, 23.0% K%, 10.4% SwStr%, and a 2.5% BB%. Over the last 30 days Kirby has a 2.76 SIERA, 31.9% K% and a 13.4% SwStr%. In his last five starts he has stuck out five or more batters in all of them including seven or more in four of those starts. This line will undoubtedly move so jump on this as soon as you can as FanDuel already has jumped to over 5.5 strikeouts.
The Royals on the season own a 23.2% K% against right hand pitching. They have been much better in the second half of the season though. They are the third hardest team in baseball to strikeout since the break with a 19.7% K% against right hand pitching. I love the value of getting Kirby at over 4.5 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have another value here on DraftKings with Tarik Skubal against the Guardians. Skubal on the season has a 3.14 SIERA, 27.7% K%, and a 12.0% SwStr%. His last time out he finally reached the 94 pitch threshold which means he's finally stretched out. Skubal should be able to pitch deep into this game as well with how watered down the Guardians lineup has become.
The Guardians aren't one to normally pick on for a strikeouts. On the season against left hand pitching they own a 18.4% K%, 78 wRC+, .284 wOBA, and a .358 SLG. Since the break this team has been underwhelming against the split since loosing Amed Rosario, and Josh Bell to trades and Josh Naylor to injury. In the second half of the season they own a 17.9% K%, 59 wRC+, .256 wOBA, and a .322 SLG. They will send seven right hand hitters to the plate tonight. Skubal on the season has a 31.4% K% against right hand hitters. There is massive upside for Skubal in this spot.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
SGP Jeff McNeil + Francisco Lindor to record a hit (-165 DraftKings SportsBook)
Throughout the season, I provided you with some hit parlays. Honestly, it's been a blast betting and has been very profitable. I will make this a constant theme in my articles for the rest of the season. I like giving you guys different looks on how to bet instead of writing up the everyday props like always. You can always take either of the two guys below for their total bases prop to get a better line.
Adam Wainwright will get the ball for the Cardinals against the Mets. Wainwright is broken he has a .375 BAA on the season. Waineright has allowed a .403 BAA against lefties this season and a .355 BAA against righties. With those numbers it doesn't matter if we attack him with lefties or rights. It just so happens the best two bats for average in this lineup are left handed hitters.
Francisco Lindor is the best left-handed bat in this lineup against right-hand pitching. He has a .291 AVG against the split since the break. Lindor has a hit him 12 of his last 15 games including 19 hits in that span. Jeff McNeil is the next-best left-handed bat against righties in this lineup. He is hitting .256 against right-hand pitching this season. McNeil has a hit in nine of his last 10 games.
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