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One final day on the prop bet beat today for me this week - and it's a small Thursday slate without a lot of meat on the bone. We were left on the hook by Max Fried last night, but Monty and Ober got there for strikeouts. Somehow our studs Matt Olson and Rafael Devers didn't hit their props, though, so we finished 2-3 on the evening. Let's do better, bettors!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, August 10, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kenta Maeda OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
Both of my top props just moved in real time as I was writing them up, but you know what? I'm fine with it because now we have an opportunity to bet them at plus money instead of having to stomach making bets at -170 or -180.
Maeda has been a strikeout machine this season - both before his injury and after. He's getting a ton of swings and misses on a variety of pitches and gets Detroit here - a matchup we love. We saw Ober get nine strikeouts last night even while laboring and Maeda already whiffed eight Tigers back in June.
It would have been nice to get this at 5.5, but again it would have come with major juice. I like him for seven strikeouts tonight, he's done it now in four straight starts and five of his last six.
James Paxton UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
Now we are going with an under here on another ace pitcher, and you know I rarely go under on guys with high strikeout rates. However, Paxton has not really been striking guys out lately as he was earlier in the season. In fact, he has gone over this number just once in his last five starts.
The Royals are a team we have attacked for strikeouts often this season, but their recent 30-day trend has been positive as they are whiffing less often - especially to lefties.
I am not sure what is up with Paxton, he's allowed 17 hits and four walks over his last two starts. And if he labors again today, I think he fails to clear the 6.5 hurdle and we cash.
Aaron Nola to record a win (-115 DraftKings)
I really haven't had much luck betting on Nola for strikeouts this season. And I also refuse to attack Washington for strikeouts as they have been a pesky team that makes a good amount of contact all season.
But I do think Nola can limit the Nats today, at least enough for his offense to get him a lead against Patrick Corbin. Oddly enough he hasn't faced them this season yet despite being a division opponent, but I look for him to bounce back after two relatively poor outings against Pittsburgh and Kansas City and pick up a win here at home.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Bryan Reynolds OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings)
Oh man, do I ever hate picking a Pirate for a bet? However, picking against them with pitchers or hitters this week simply hasn't worked out that well for me.
I do like picking on the Braves' starter, Bryce Elder, however. He's a guy who has regressed in a big way after starting out on fire in April and May. Lately, he's been getting beat up, allowing five earned runs or more in three of his last five starts.
He's a ground ball pitcher who doesn't miss many bats and lefties have been getting the better of him. Reynolds (who also slowed down mid-season after a crazy hot start) has picked it back up lately, homering in three of his last six games. He's a great contact hitter and should be able to elevate the sinker that Elder relies on the most.
Will Smith OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-150 DraftKings)
As much as I love betting on Mookie against LHP, his props are being pushed up to where his total bases are juiced and his H+R+RBI is now at 2.5. I think I'll roll with Will Smith today against the Rockies' lefty Ty Blach.
Smith hits third and usually ends up with multiple RBI opportunities thanks to hitting behind two of the best in the game at getting on base - Mookie and Freddie Freeman.
There is some juice here, too, but for good reason as this has been a pretty safe bet. Smith has hit this number in six of last seven games.
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