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Today's Free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, April 17, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a solid mix of strong pitching on the mound today but I've also dialed in on some attractive hitter props on what is a 13-game MLB schedule on Monday. The day starts with the annual Patriot's Day game in Boston but we have 12 evening affairs on tap.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, April 17, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jesus Luzardo OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-16 FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's an elevated total but Jesus Luzardo has fantastic strikeout upside against a Giants team that is striking out more than anyone in baseball. Despite a solid 9.6% walk rate, the Giants sport an MLB-worst 27.8% K% on the young season.
After spinning his tires in Oakland, Luzardo has found something with the Marlins. He punched out the opposition at a healthy 30% clip last season and is at a strong 27% mark through three starts this season. He has a 1o-strikeout game under his belt in that time while his underlying metrics are strong.
The southpaw ranks in the league's 93rd percentile in whiff rate and 80th in chase rate. That's good enough for me against a team struggling with the strikeout so far this season.
Merrill Kelly UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (+102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The value on the under with Merrill Kelly is strong at plus money against the St. Louis Cardinals.
For starters, the Cardinals are tied for seventh with a 21% K% on the season. They just don't strike out a ton while they sit 11th with a strong .337 wOBA on the campaign. However, this also has plenty to do with Kelly who is a far better pitcher at home than on the road.
While the ERA is a reflection of that, let's focus on the fact that his 18.8% strikeout rate on the road is well below his lukewarm 22.9% at home. He's not a big strikeout pitcher to begin with but his work on the road has been rather weak throughout his career. He's pitched just 3 2/3 innings on the road this season.
This one has the under written all over it.
Cristian Javier UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-156 FanDuel Sportsbook)
It should be a fun one tonight in Houston between two great teams but Cristian Javier should have a difficult time racking up strikeouts in this one.
Only three teams have struck out at a lesser clip than the Blue Jays' 19.7% K% this season while the Jays could knock Javier around early as their .277 batting average as a team ranks third in all of baseball. This is a tough offense up and down the order.
Javier has racked up plenty of strikeouts as he's posted a strikeout rate of at least 30% over the last two seasons but he's at just 19.7% himself this season. He's yet to reach seven strikeouts on the season and should have a hard time doing it in this matchup tonight.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Wander Franco 2+ TB (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The historically good Tampa Bay Rays travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds and right-hander Hunter Greene at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
While Greene's 2.47 FIP predicts plenty of positive regression over his 5.14 ERA, his bread and butter is the strikeout. That's going to be tough against Wander Franco who owns a tiny 11.3% K% for his young career while he's on fire to begin the season.
Franco is hitting .318 with four homers and eight doubles in just 16 games. That's 12 extra-base knocks in 16 games as the odds are he tallies at least one extra-base knock at nice value tonight in Cincy.
Jose Ramirez 2+ TB (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is my favorite prop on Monday's slate as Jose Ramirez takes on the Tigers and left-hander Matthew Boyd.
Ramirez has tormented the Tigers in his career. The switch-hitter owns a .992 OPS with 26 homers, 34 doubles, and 10 triples in just 123 career starts against his division rival. He'll also take on a pitcher he's destroyed over the years. Ramirez is a career .290 hitter with three homers, one double, one triple, and a .969 OPS across 44 trips to the plate against Boyd.
If all this weren't enough, Ramirez also gets the good fortune of taking on a Tigers bullpen that ranks 25th with a 5.46 ERA on the season. Detroit's bullpen was extraordinary last season but lost several high-leverage arms either via trade or free agency this winter as this group should struggle with plenty of new faces on board this time around.
Ramirez is also attractive for 3+ total bases at +200 if you're feeling frisky.
Connor Joe 2+ TB (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's always a good time combing through player props in a Coors Field game as Connor Joe takes on his former team tonight in Colorado.
He'll battle southpaw Kyle Freeland who put up a 6.00 ERA at home last season and is due for major regression moving forward this season. Freeland owns a minuscule 0.96 ERA in three starts but also sports a 4.34 FIP and 5.27 SIERA. He's also allowed fly balls at a 51.9% clip so far which does not bode well in this venue.
Joe might have just 15 plate appearances against lefties this season but is 4-for-11 (.364) with a homer and a double in that time. He's off to a hot start overall with a .333 average, one homer, three doubles, and a triple across 38 trips to the plate.
Joe has been a superior hitter against lefties in his career than he has same-handed pitching so let's look for at least two total bases for the former Pittsburgh Pirate tonight.
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