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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/4/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday and happy Labor Day, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, September 4, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 64-49-4 (+0.86 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Guardians
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CLE +120
MIN: Pablo Lopez | CLE: Lucas Giolito
I'll start this Labor Day out in Cleveland, where the Twins head into town for an early-week series.
It'll be Pablo Lopez (9-7, 3.72 ERA) taking the ball for the Twins tonight. Lopez has certainly been due for some positive regression to close out the season; he comes into this one with a 3.16 xERA and 3.45 xFIP. He's had back-to-back poor starts, allowing eight runs over 11 innings. This comes after three straight scoreless starts, so we'll be looking for Lopez to bounce back today. He projects to a 3.76 SIERA against a Guardians lineup that projects to a .303 wOBA.
The Guardians will send newly acquired Lucas Giolito (7-11, 4.45 ERA) to the mound for his 28th start of the season, this one coming for his third team in 2023. Giolito got rocked last Monday against the Phillies and tonight's optics don't look too good either. He comes into this one with a 4.51 xERA, 4.48 xFIP, and projected 4.18 SIERA. The Twins project to a .369 wOBA against him today, giving them a strong offensive advantage.
I always seem to have a problem with the Twins bullpen, and today is no different. FanDuel is giving the same odds for the full game and first five moneylines, so we'll grab the first five moneyline at -142 on FanDuel.
Pick: Twins F5 Moneyline (-142), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.89 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Angels
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAA +144
BAL: Grayson Rodriguez | LAA: Kenny Rosenberg
I'll wrap things up in Orange County tonight, as the Orioles wrap up the West Coast trip they're on.
It'll be Grayson Rodriguez on the mound for the Orioles tonight. Rodriguez (4-3, 5.03 ERA) has had a pretty nice resurgence since being called back up in July. He's 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA in that span, while opponents are hitting only .199 against him. The Angels have been effectively stripped of their offense via waivers last week and project to a .324 wOBA against Rodriguez today. Rodriguez projects to a 4.09 SIERA.
The Angels will give the ball to southpaw Kenny Rosenberg (0-0, 6.43 ERA) tonight. Rosenberg has pitched in two games this season, August 11 against the Astros (5 IP, 4 ER) and August 23 (2 IP, 1 ER) against the Reds. He averages a strikeout an inning but also averages a walk an inning in those seven innings of work. Albeit with a small sample size to work off of, Rosenberg projects to a 7.75 SIERA. The Orioles project to a .337 wOBA off of him in this one.
We're getting the best odds on the first five run line. It comes out to -128 on FanDuel, so we'll take that and run with it.
Pick: Orioles F5 -0.5 (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.65 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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