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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/26/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. If you tailed the DFS article yesterday, you know we had a very profitable day on the small slate. Today, thankfully, is a much better slate, as we have a full allotment of games. We will target the AL East playoff race for our two bets today. Let's not waste more time digging into my two favorite bets tonight.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 26, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL (-238)
WAS: Josiah Gray | BAL: Kyle Bradish
The race to win the AL East has heated up as the Rays are 2.5 games back with six games left in the season. This is not only for the AL East but also for the best record in the American League, which will secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
I will admit that I am one of the biggest Josiah Gray haters out there, but I don’t believe in this guy. If you have been tailing my player prop articles, you know we have been attacking his command issues, and when adding that with his struggles against lefties, this is an awful matchup for him against the O’s battling to secure the division. Since August 1, Gray has been 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA, 5.66 SIERA, 1.67 WHIP, and a 14.9% BB%.
Josiah Gray has always struggled with lefties, and that continues this season. He has a .341 wOBA, .175 ISO, and a 50.2% hard hit this season against left-handed bats. Over the last 30 days, he has struggled even more to a .381 wOBA, .303 ISO, and a 54.2% hard hit. The Orioles will send seven excellent left-handed bats to the plate and have a 114 wRC+, .335 wOBA, and a .439 SLG against righties over the last 30 days.
Kyle Bradish will get the rock for the Orioles in a big-time game, and he has been electric. Since August 1, he is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA, 3.17 SIERA, and a 0.93 WHIP. Bradish has been pitching deep into games for the O’s and should not have a problem with Washington, who has 94 wRC+, .312 wOBA, and a .408 SLG over the last 30 days. I love the Orioles tonight, so we are betting them on the run line.
Pick: Orioles Run Line -1.5 (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Red Sox
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TB (-130)
TB: Zach Eflin | BOS: Tanner Houck
Our second matchup is between the second-place Rays and the last-place Red Sox at Fenway Park. As mentioned above, the Rays are 2.5 games out of first place and have an important series in Boston to try to gain ground on the O's for the division. They will send their most consistent arm of the season and their ace, Zach Eflin, to the bump tonight to oppose Tanner Houck.
Eflin has been tremendous this season for the Rays; the most crucial part is staying healthy. He is 15-8 on the season with a 3.44 ERA, 3.30 SIERA, and a 1.03 WHIP. Since August 1, he has been unhittable, pitching to a 7-7 record with a 3.04 ERA, 3.05 SIERA, and a 1.03 WHIP. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox have been one of the league's worst offenses against right-hand pitching. They own an 86 wRC+, .305 wOBA, and a .398 SLG against the split.
Since August 1, Tanner Houck is 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA, 4.76 SIERA, and a 1.57 WHIP. Tampa Bay, against the split on the season, owns a 116 wRC+, a .333 wOBA, and a .443 SLG. They have been one of the league's best offenses all season against right-hand pitching. I love this spot for both AL East teams to get a victory, and I will even be parlaying the two moneylines together with DraftKings 25% boost.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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