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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/20/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 20, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 58-42-3 (+3.12 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Astros
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: HOU -175
SEA: Emerson Hancock | HOU: Hunter Brown
I'll start things off by saying that I'll be looking at a pair of F5 plays today, and we'll be backing the two Texas teams in the Astros and Rangers. Let's talk about this Mariners/Astros matchup as they finish up their weekend series.
It'll be the sixth overall pick from the 2020 draft, Emerson Hancock (0-0, 5.40 ERA), taking the ball for Seattle today. While I'm pretty sure I read a novella by the M's right-hander for AP English in high school, his first two starts have been more up and down than any book climax. After tossing five two-hit innings against the Padres in his MLB debut, he allowed five earned on nine hits against the Royals on Tuesday. It'll be his first MLB start on four days' rest, and my model projects him to a 5.73 SIERA today.
It'll be another rookie, Hunter Brown (9-8, 4.16 ERA), taking the ball for Houston today. Brown is a prime positive regression candidate, bringing in a 4.00 xERA and 3.30 xFIP. His 3.31 projected SIERA ranks fourth on today's slate, according to my model. Furthermore, the Astros have a strong offensive advantage here, projecting to a .375 wOBA against Hancock. The Mariners project to just a .325 wOBA against Brown.
One spot that the Astros don't have the advantage in this one is in the bullpen battle. This is completely fine with me, as we're seeing better odds on the first five moneyline than we are on the full-game moneyline. With that, we'll grab Astros F5 at -164 on FanDuel.
Pick: Astros F5 Moneyline (-164), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.61 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: HOU -188
MIL: Adrian Houser | TEX: Max Scherzer
I'll head about 260 miles north to the DFW as the Brewers and Rangers wrap up their weekend series.
The Brewers will send Adrian Houser (4-4, 4.43 ERA) to the mound today. Houser has been about in line in terms of run prevention, bringing in a 4.35 xERA and 4.33 xFIP. Since the All-Star break, Houser has allowed three or more runs in five of six starts; with a six-inning, one-run start against the Pirates sandwiched between a bunch of mediocre performances. It's hard to say things will get much easier against the Rangers today, who project to a .346 wOBA against him.
It'll be Max Scherzer (12-4, 3.67 ERA) taking the ball for Texas today. I highlighted this before his last start, but Scherzer has been lights out since the first inning he threw for the Rangers. As a matter of fact, since that first inning, Scherzer has allowed just one earned run across 19 innings. He projects to a 3.08 SIERA today. My model has the Brewers struggling mightily against "Mad Max", projecting to a .298 wOBA.
I know how dangerous the Brewers' bullpen can be, so I'll look to avoid that here. With that said, the Rangers project so well against Houser that I'm backing them to get after him early and often. I'll grab the first-five run line here, which we can get at -138 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rangers F5 -0.5 (-138), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.72 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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