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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/28/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 28, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 49-37-3 (+2.73 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM -18-0
WSH: MacKenzie Gore | NYM: Max Scherzer
We had another rough day yesterday, but we'll look to bounce back tonight as we start out in Queens as the Nationals and Mets continue on their series.
The Nationals will send southpaw MacKenzie Gore to the mound tonight. Gore (6-7, 4.37 ERA) has had an up-and-down kind of year, most recently tossing five scoreless against the Giants on Sunday. He projects to a 4.11 SIERA today against a Mets lineup that's relatively struggled against lefties this season, ranking 24th in wOBA (.301) and 22nd in wRC+ (93). However, they project to a .358 wOBA against Gore's pitch types today.
It'll be Max Scherzer on the mound for the Mets tonight. Scherzer (8-4, 4.20 ERA), who just celebrated his 39th birthday yesterday, is due for some positive regression. He brings in a 3.67 ERA and 4.14 xFIP, and will take on his former team that projects to a .310 wOBA against his pitch types, and a "weighted" wOBA of .302. Scherzer projects to a 3.91 SIERA in this one.
I'll back the Mets money line here, despite the juice. We can get it at -180 on DraftKings, which is what we'll do here.
Pick: Mets (-180), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.56 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Dodgers
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAD -250
CIN: Brandon Williamson | LAD: Bobby Miller
I'll wrap things up out in LA, as the Reds head into town to take on the Dodgers.
The Reds will send Brandon Williamson (2-2, 4.60 ERA) to the mound. While the surface numbers don't look too great for Williamson, the expected numbers don't look all that great either. He brings in a 5.59 ERA and 5.10 xFIP, and some regression may be on the way against a Dodgers offense that ranks 10th in wOBA (.330) and 11th in wRC+ (109) against lefties. The Dodgers project to a .337 wOBA against Williamson's pitch types tonight, and Williamson projects to a 5.07 SIERA tonight.
The Dodgers will send Bobby Miller (6-1, 4.28 ERA) to the mound. Unlike Williamson, Miller should see some positive regression sooner rather than later, given his 3.83 xERA and 4.05 xFIP. Miller's won three of his last four starts, though he has been touched up a little bit in those starts. Nevertheless, he projects to a 3.70 SIERA today against a Reds team that strangely ranks 11th in wOBA (.323), but 19th in wRC+ (95).
The Reds have turned it up a bit after slumping out of the All-Star break, but I think the Dodgers' offense will prove to be too much for them tonight, so I'll take the Dodgers run line here at -110 at DraftKings.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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