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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/9/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We've officially made it to the postseason. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB postseason picks again this year. We stumbled into the postseason, losing some bets in the last week of the season, but we're back watching meaningful baseball now. I made my money in these games last year, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. I hope to roll that success into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, October 9, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 74-56-5 (+0.85 units)
2023 Postseason: 0-0 (+0.00 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Braves
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -158
PHI: Zack Wheeler | ATL: Max Fried
I'll start today down in Atlanta, as the Braves and Phillies will start the second round of their (potentially) five-round heavyweight bout. I'll go a bit unconventional here, and take a look at a first-inning play.
It'll be Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA) taking the ball for the Phillies. Wheeler certainly had an up-and-down series against the Braves. He allowed six runs in five innings in one start and allowed one run in 14 innings across his other two starts. I think the Braves are in desperation mode here, and they'll want to get that historically great offense going early and often in this one.
It'll be Max Fried (8-1, 2.55 ERA) taking the ball for the Braves. Fried had an injury-riddled 2023 season, making just 14 starts, but was really good in those starts obviously. He threw five innings of one-run ball against the Phillies back on September 12. However, it should be noted that Fried is dealing with a blister on his finger, which could shorten his leash. The Phillies, while they haven't scored, have been active in the first inning so far in the postseason as well.
I'll grab the first inning over here. Fried hasn't pitched in an MLB game in nearly three weeks, and if the Phillies don't plate a runner, I have a strong inkling that the Braves will. We can get it at -106 on FanDuel, which I think is a pretty solid value here.
Pick: First Inning OVER 0.5 Runs (-106), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.94 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAD -158
ARI: Zac Gallen | LAD: Bobby Miller
I'll head out to LA for the second play of the day. Like a replay of 2022, both the Braves and the Dodgers are in danger of dropping their respective NLDS series.
The Dodgers will have no easy task tonight, taking on Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA). The Cy Young candidate did not fare well in LA this season, throwing 10 innings across two starts while allowing 11 earned runs. His very good 2023 season perhaps was a bit lucky, as shown by his 4.18 xERA. He projects to a 3.50 SIERA today, but the Dodgers should be able to knock him around a bit as they project to a massive .371 wOBA.
It'll be Bobby Miller playing "stopper" for the Dodgers tonight. Miller (11-4, 3.76 ERA) had been incredible for the Dodgers in 2023. He's actually due for some positive regression, as shown by his 3.45 xERA and 3.75 xFIP. These Diamondback hitters have been not easy to get out so far this postseason, though, but come into this one with a projected .325 wOBA. Miller projects to a 3.32 SIERA in this one.
It'll be up to the rookie to control the damage for the Dodgers tonight, and I think he's able to get it done. I'll back the Dodgers on the moneyline here, which we can get at -158 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-158), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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