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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! It's been a while. We're back though as we wind down the road to the World Series. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB postseason picks again this year. We stumbled into the postseason, losing some bets in the last week of the season, but we're back watching meaningful baseball now. I made my money in these games last year, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. I hope to roll that success into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, October 20, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 74-56-5 (+0.85 units)
2023 Postseason: 1-1 (-0.06 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -118
HOU: Justin Verlander | TEX: Jordan Montgomery
I'll start things off down in Texas. I'm initially writing this late on Thursday night, whilst the Astros have a 7-3 lead on the Rangers and are looking at evening up this series.
It'll be Justin Verlander (1-1, 1.42 ERA, PS) taking the ball for the Astros in tonight's showdown. Verlander is clearly pitching well to this point this postseason. He also had Texas's number the only time he saw them in the regular season, allowing just two runs (one earned) across seven innings of work. He projects to a 4.06 SIERA today, while the Rangers project to a .320 wOBA. It'll be a tall task to keep the Rangers down, though, especially in a game they must win, assuming their game tonight ends in an Astros victory.
Jordan Montgomery (2-0, 2.08 ERA, PS) will be the one on the mound for Texas. Montgomery has been a big-time starter for the Rangers up to this point, and Game 5 may not be different. They'll have to overcome what my data model thinks will happen, though. While he projects to just a 4.02 SIERA, my model projects the Astros get to him, with a massive .450 projected wOBA. Nevertheless, with his back against the wall, I think Montgomery does his job here.
I'll be backing the NRFI in this spot, despite these teams putting up a crooked number in two of the four games in this series to this point.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-113), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.88 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: ARI +108
PHI: Cristopher Sanchez | ARI: Joe Mantiply
I'll head out to Arizona for the second play of the day. Arizona is going to look to ride the momentum of Thursday's walk-off win, while the Phillies will look to take control back of this series and grab a commanding 3-1 lead.
It'll be Cristopher Sanchez (3-5, 3.44 ERA, RS) taking the mound for the Phillies. Sanchez will be making his first appearance of the 2023 postseason, but Sanchez was terrific for the Phillies across 18 starts in the regular season. Sanchez did not face the Diamondbacks this season but brings in a projected 3.14 SIERA into this one. The Diamondbacks have struggled against lefties this season, including Ranger Suarez last night, and project to just a .294 wOBA in this one.
The Diamondbacks will give the ball to Joe Mantiply (2-0, 9.00 ERA, PS) to start what is evidently a bullpen game. Mantiply pitched in Game 2, where the Phillies tagged him for three runs in just a third of an inning. That Diamondbacks bullpen brings in a projected 3.99 SIERA against the Phillies, who project to a .378 wOBA. While the Philly bats went cold in Game 3, I expect them to bounce back in a big way in Game 4. This guy, in particular, is due for a big game.
Both of these teams used their big arms last night, and with Game 5 on Saturday, it'll be interesting how each manager approaches tonight's matchup. I'll back the Phillies here, as I believe both their offense and bullpen depth are superior here.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-134), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.75 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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