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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/1/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We've officially made it to the end of the season. As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, October 1, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 73-55-5 (1.85 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SF +138
LAD: Bobby Miller | SF: Kyle Harrison
I'll start today out in San Francisco, as the Dodgers look to have one more chance to "get right" before the playoffs begin, while the Giants will close out their season with a Sunday afternoon showdown.
It'll be Bobby Miller (11-4, 3.89 ERA) looking to close out his season strong. The 24-year-old rooke was very impressive in his first Major League Baseball season, and it certainly wasn't luck considering he brings in a 3.53 xERA and 3.75 xFIP into this start. Miller didn't fare well in his first start against the Giants back in June, allowing seven runs in just 5.2 innings. However, he projects to a 3.30 SIERA today against a Giants lineup with just a .315 projected wOBA in this afternoon's game.
It'll be Kyle Harrison (1-1, 4.85 ERA) at least starting this game for the Giants in this one. Harrison hasn't been awful but hasn't been too good either, clearly. He brings in a 4.73 xERA and 4.58 xFIP into this start, just his seventh of the season. He pitched against the Dodgers just 11 days ago, tossing 5.1 innings of three-hit ball, allowing two runs. He projects to a 5.17 SIERA in this one against a Dodgers lineup that projects to a .336 wOBA.
I'll back the Dodgers on the first five moneyline here, which we can get at -170 on FanDuel. It's tough to bet on these games, especially on the last day of the season, but at least the Dodgers have the playoffs to look forward to; meanwhile, the Giants couldn't wait until Monday to fire their manager and already have one foot on the plane to whichever vacation spot they booked.
Pick: Dodgers F5 Moneyline (-170), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.58 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Pirates
O/U: | Moneyline: MIA
MIA: Braxton Garrett | PIT: Andre Jackson
I'll wrap the regular season up out in Pittsburgh as the Marlins and Pirates square off for the final time this season. The Marlins were able to clinch last night, but there's more to play for here.
The Marlins will send Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA) to the mound for this one. Garrett has had an interesting season, as he brings in a 4.51 xERA but a 3.42 xFIP. An interesting split, to be sure, but he brings in a very solid 3.84 projected SIERA against this Pirates offense that projects to a .321 wOBA.
The Pirates will send Andre Jackson (1-3, 5.34 ERA) to the mound. While this will be the 19th (and final) appearance Jackson makes in 2023, it'll be just his seventh start. He brings in a 5.59 xERA but a 4.42 xFIP. However, his projected SIERA is what I'm really looking to target. A 7.67 projected SIERA shouldn't cut it in the MLB, and I don't expect it to here against a Marlins lineup that projects to a .333 wOBA against him today.
I'll back the Marlins here in their final game of the season. After a hot start to the year, the Pirates will be closing the book on another rebuilding year, while the Marlins are (at the time I'm writing this) still looking to grab the second Wild Card spot and fifth seed overall in the National League.
Pick: Marlins -1.5, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.77 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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