Free College Football Betting Picks - Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Week 5 (September 30, 2023)

Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 5 of the 2023 season (9/30/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.

The last great college football season is underway and Week 4 didn't disappoint! Ohio State walked off the Irish, who decided that they only needed ten guys to defend the Buckeyes. Duck U squashed the Colorado hype. LSU and Utah survived. It all added up to my best week of the season with a 35-28 mark.

I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I lost a little bit last week and am now down two points on the season. Please excuse the mess on the right side of the sheet. I am trying to update it to include my cumulative total for as long as I have done this with the point betting system. I'm going back through years of past articles and updating as I go along. It will be worth it in the end!

CFB Betting Picks Overview

As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.

I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.

CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 5 (September 30, 2023)

(6) Penn State (-26.5) at Northwestern

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is a lot of points, but it's doable. Northwestern is riding high after knocking off Minnesota, who was up 21 points entering the fourth quarter. Seeing what the Penn State D just did to Iowa makes me feel comfortable with the Nittany Lions here.

(8) USC (-21.5) at Colorado

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

USC has beaten Colorado in all 16 meetings since 1927.
https://t.co/ENoWETj9RN

— 9NEWS Sports Denver (@9NEWSSports) September 29, 2023

I know Travis Hunter is not playing, but this is too many. USC's defense is a problem right now and this is a 9 am Pacific time kick. That can mess with a player's clock. USC won't lose this game, but they're not covering more than three touchdowns either. Give me Colorado.

(22) Florida at Kentucky (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I picked Kentucky outright in Pick Em and I'm standing by that decision. Two points isn't much of a deterrent.

Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. Arkansas at Jerry World

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Evan Stewart and the A&M receivers are going to be a problem, but Conner Wiegman is done for the season and the Razorbacks should have Raheim Sanders back. This team took LSU to the brink in Red Stick last week. LSU is a lot better than a full-strength A&M. Arkansas outright.

Louisiana at Minnesota (-11.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Minnesota just lost to freaking Northwestern. This is too many.

Utah State (-5.5) at Connecticut 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Cooper Legas lost his starting job to true freshman McCae Hillstead. It looks like that was the right move. Hillstead gets his first win here. I'll take the Aggies.

Clemson (-6.5) at Syracuse

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

(2017) Syracuse upsets defending national champion #2 Clemson in the Carrier Dome
pic.twitter.com/qMUXHhVP3G

— Autumn 11 CFB (@Autumn_Eleven) September 27, 2023

I remember where I was for that game. This wouldn't be nearly the upset that 2017 was. I understand that people are wanting to bury Clemson (mostly their own fans) and a team that hears that all the time can be dangerous. I just feel like Garrett Shrader is really underappreciated among ACC quarterbacks and Syracuse has just looked like the better team. I see a ton of money and a ton of sharps on Clemson. It really makes me nervous, but I believe in Shrader. I'm standing by Syracuse.

UAB at Tulane (-21.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow, that's a ton of points. Georgia barely covered that line. This feels at least a half-point too high. Give me the Blazers.

South Alabama at James Madison (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

This feels low. Like really low. I get nervous when I feel that a line is this off. I understand that South Alabama is going to have a fire under them after losing to Central Michigan in Mobile, but that's kind of my point. It was Central Michigan in Mobile! JMU by double figures!

Buffalo at Akron (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Is Buffalo still a name? I like Akron by at least a touchdown. This is another line that feels really low.

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

CMU just ousted a pretty good South Alabama team in Mobile. The Eagles got shut out by first-year FBS program Jacksonville State. I feel comfortable with CMU despite the extra half.

Central Michigan are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Central Michigan are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Eastern Michigan.#CollegeFootball

— Sewer Labs (@SewerLabs) September 24, 2023

Virginia at Boston College (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I don't really buy this. Unless, of course, Virginia are complete morons and give Tony Muskett the starting job back. I have a feeling they will. Give me BC.

Miami (OH) (-14.5) at Kent State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

That's a ton of points on the road in the MAC. I'll take Kent, if only by that half.

Arizona State at California (-12.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Say what now? I was impressed by Arizona State last week. They might not win this outright, but they should keep it within 10 or so.

(1) Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Since beating Georgia in the 2017 regular season, Auburn has scored 10, 10, 6, 14, 10 and 7 in six straight losses...

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 29, 2023

Finally, a Georgia line I can get behind! Georgia might win by double this since Auburn doesn't have a quarterback who can throw for their weight. There is a lot of trash talk with people saying Georgia is ripe for an upset. Maybe, but it won't be a team without a pulse that does it.

(2) Michigan (-17.5) at Nebraska

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

So is Nebraska better than Rutgers? Probably not. Give me Michigan.

(24) Kansas at (3) Texas (-16.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Never forget what happened last time the Jayhawks were in Austin. You know Texas didn't. I feel revenge coming. Give me Texas.

Indiana at Maryland (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I don't really like that half, but it's warranted. I'll take the Terps, but lower the bet.

Illinois at Purdue (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Both teams have burned me this year. The Illinois defense is bad. Purdue is worse than they should be. I'll take Purdue, but there's no way I'm betting on this.

Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (-22.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is a ton of points, but it's amazing what Tech looks like when they aren't turning the ball over every three possessions. I'll take the Bees, but I think I'm leaving this alone.

Houston at Texas Tech (-8.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line bugs me. Tyler Shough is going to be out for at least six weeks. The Red Raiders haven't beaten a FBS team yet this season and look rather ugly in the loss to West Virginia. Houston has talent but usually lacks cohesion. This just feels too high. I might buy Tech by a touchdown at home, but not by more than that. I'll take Houston. I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright.

Baylor at Central Florida (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The UCF defense isn't very good, but I guarantee you that a Sawyer Robertson-fronted Baylor offense is worse. Give me UCF.

Arkansas State at Massachusetts (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Come on now...UMass already has their one win for the year. Give me Arkansas State.

South Florida at Navy (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

USF QB Byrum Brown doesn’t just lead the NCAA in QB rushing; but leads ALL AAC players in rushing. pic.twitter.com/hjJmS6bIq0

— SarasotaUSF (@SarasotaUSF) September 25, 2023

Byrum won't find as many lanes against Navy, but the guy can sling it around too. Brown looks like the complete package. I like USF outright.

Old Dominion at Marshall (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Old Dominion had their hands full with Texas A&M...COMMERCE last week. Rasheen Ali is going to dominate this game. I'm following the Herd.

Ball State at Western Michigan (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Both teams are bad, so I'm not touching this. I kinda like the under-50 and the home team.

Northern Illinois at Toledo (-12.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is a big line if Dequan Finn is out as expected. That said, NIU has been nothing short of terrible. Peny Boone should be able to cover this on his own, right? Give me the Rockets.

(23) Missouri (-13.5) at Vanderbilt

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This feels low to me. The Vanderbilt offense has looked a bit better, but it feels like Missouri's offense is better than Kentucky's and the Wildcats covered this last week. I'll take Mizzou.

Boise State at Memphis (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I still like Boise outright. Memphis can't stop anyone on the ground and Ashton Jeanty proved that he can be a workhorse last week.

Hawaii at UNLV (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is an early kick Hawaii time and UNLV took down a Power Five school. I'll take the Rebels.

New Mexico at Wyoming (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

New Mexico just struggled with UMass. Wyoming beat Texas Tech and gave Texas problems for three quarters. I don't like the half, but I'm still taking the Cowboys.

(13) LSU (-2.5) at (20) Mississippi

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

There is a lot of money backing the Tigers and betting the over. I like the under a bit better, but I'm all over the Tigers for under a field goal. Ole Miss will finally be fully healthy on offense, but I'm not sure it matters. If Jaylen Daniels is on, this gets ugly.

(9) Oregon (-27.5) at Stanford

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Wow, that's a lot of points. Stanford has a lot of issues. If they were even a bit good, they would have sniped Arizona last week. I guess I'll take Oregon, but I'm not betting on this.

Iowa State at (14) Oklahoma (-19.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line is up a touchdown since it opened and I see no real reason why. I got it at 14 and I like it better there. However, Rocco Becht looked like he was coming into his own last week. I'll still take the Sooners at home. It's taken a while, but I believe in that defense now.

No. 2 scoring defense in the country and the fewest points allowed in 31 years ? #OUDNA pic.twitter.com/RxOPUeY1QR

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) September 27, 2023

East Carolina at Rice (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Rice had issues with South Florida last week, but I keep remembering how poorly the ECU offense has played this year. I'll take Rice.

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I think Davis Brin is still throwing interceptions in Madison. Give me the Chanticleers.

Troy at Georgia State (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I really have no idea what to do with this one. I like Darren Grainger. I like Kimani Vidal. There's no way I'm betting on this. I'm just going to turn the TV on and enjoy the hell out of this game. Give me Troy, I guess.

Texas State (-5.5) at Southern Mississippi

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

So this is where we are now? The Eagles made a Bowl last year and Frank Gore Jr. had one of the best bowl showings in history. Now they're a home dog to Texas State. Yikes. I'm still taking Southern Miss, but I'm leaving this alone.

(11) Notre Dame (-5.5) at (17) Duke

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

A smattering of Trolls are all over Duke because it's cool to hate Notre Dame. A lot of sharps are on the Irish here. I'm neither a troll nor a sharp, but I think this game stays within 3-4 points either way. I like the under and Duke with the points. No idea who wins though.

South Carolina at (21) Tennessee (-11.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Nope. Nope, nope, nope. I'm the Pope of nope. No way in hell is the Tennessee defense holding South Carolina to more than 10 points less than the offense scores. Spencer Rattler is quietly having a great year, even behind the worst offensive line South Carolina has had in a decade. The Cocks might not win outright, but Tennessee isn't winning by double figures either.

Michigan State at Iowa (-12.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I'm trying to find a good reason to watch this game, and I really can't find one. Michigan State might have the worst quarterbacks in FBS. Don't get too excited...Iowa isn't far ahead of them. Give me Iowa, I guess. I do like Leshon Williams.

Charlotte at SMU (-23.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Florida didn't even cover this. Charlotte is better than we think and SMU isn't as good as most people think. I'll take Charlotte and the points.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Virginia Tech

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I don't know about this. Phil Jurkovec finally looked more like the quarterback that he was at Boston College, but night games in Blacksburg get tricky. I've seen nothing that says Pitt can go in there and win. I'll take Tech.

West Virginia at TCU (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

West Virginia is expected to start QB Garrett Greene at TCU on Saturday night, according to @Brett_McMurphy of @ActionNetworkHQ.

WVU HC Neal Brown has continuously said he wouldn’t start Greene unless he was fully healthy and could do what he does best - be athletic.

— Mike J. Asti (@MikeAsti11) September 30, 2023

Whenever Vegas is this far off from what I think, I get nervous. Garrett Greene getting the start makes all the difference for me. TCU is playing better, but that's a lot of points. I'll take West Virginia. I don't think they win, but a 34-24 or 34-27 loss seems more likely to me.

Appalachian State (-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

App State is the much better team on paper and has looked it on the field. Give me the Mountaineers.

San Diego State at Air Force (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Ashton Jeanty carved up this rush defense last week. What do you think a team that racks up about 350 yards on the ground in a normal week is going to do to the Aztecs? I'm taking the Falcons.

(12) Alabama (-14.5) at Mississippi State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

ALABAMA @ MISSISSIPPI STATE pic.twitter.com/3bbjqBdazU

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 26, 2023

Yeah, this looks like a lot more than 14 to me too. Roll Tide!

(7) Washington (-18.5) at Arizona

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This line is down a field goal which only means I can raise the bet. Arizona will have no answer for Michael Penix and this offense.

Nevada at Fresno State (-24.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Fresno is destroying everyone. I'll take the Bulldogs.

We have a lighter week with only 56 FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. I felt good about last week and it finally turned out well. I don't feel as good about this week as you can tell with only one max bet on the entire slate. I did go with 10 four-pointers, my most of the season. I have five minimum bets, meaning I'm living mostly in the middle again with 23 two-point bets and 17 three-point bets.

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