X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Franmil Reyes and the Javy Baez School of Hard Knocks

David Emerick analyzes the hard contact and high swing rates of San Diego Padres outfielder (OF) Franmil Reyes and draws an unlikely comparison to Javier Baez.

For almost a month straight, Franmil Reyes did not take a walk. While that’s not a good thing, I’m not convinced that it’s a bad thing either.

Since April 18th, Franmil Reyes has hit nine home runs, and that is definitely a good thing. Reyes’ carrying tool is his power. Walks don’t provide him a path to exploit that carrying tool, so perhaps they shouldn’t be a major part of his game.

In the three-true outcomes age of baseball, Reyes seems indifferent to walks. However, given his recent success, Reyes looks like he might be better off if that’s the direction he chooses for himself.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

“Not Changing Anything”

Since his last walk on April 18th, Reyes has produced a .356ISO, .299 AVG., and .655 SLG. Given Reyes early struggles, it would be fair to ask what he’s changed in his approach. The most noticeable statistical difference between Reyes before April 23rd, when he started heating up, and after it is simple: he stopped walking and started swinging more often.

BB% Swing% O-Swing% SwSt% wRC+
3/28 - 4/18 11.5% 51.6% 34.3% 12.9% 104
4/19 - 5/15 0.0 61.9% 41.7% 20.2% 144

Reyes has attributed his recent success to just seeing the ball better and “not changing anything,” as he described in one postgame interview. Having read and watched too many postgame interviews, that could be a player being coy, but it feels more like a player confessing that his strategy is to see the ball, hit the ball, and run.

Given Reyes’ recent power surge, that's not necessarily a bad strategy. Reyes wouldn’t be the first prodigiously talented player who felt that tinkering didn’t improve his game. The 6'5" righty seems to have found his rhythm at the plate. Rely on a lifetime of hard work and don’t overcomplicate the game. Looking at his numbers and watching Reyes play reminded me eerily watching Javier Baez play last season.

 

The Javier Baez School of Hard Knocks

Baez is renowned as a player who swings the bat with a ferocity that would make little-league coaches cringe. So far this season, Baez has averaged a 92.8 MPH exit velocity. Franmil Reyes clocks in at 92.7. Before the start of the season, there was talk around baseball analysts who projected major regression from Baez, and maybe it still comes, but at this point, his performance looks sustainable.

Momentarily ignoring all of the tactical considerations between a hitter and pitcher, Baez strategy is simple: swing at anything that strikes his fancy, then hit the ball hard and often. Reyes’ core approach is eerily reminiscent of Javier Baez’s swing-at-all-the-pitches strategy. Consider Baez's numbers from 2018 in comparison to Reyes' from this year.

Swing Contact Z-Swing O-Swing SwSt% FB/GB ratio Brls/PA% wRC+ wOBA xwOBA
Baez 18 57.8% 68.0% 76.4% 43.8% 17.9% 1.41 8.7 131 .366 .349
Reyes 19 58.1% 70.0% 81.3% 50.0 17.2% .86 12.0 132 .351 .402

We could look at Baez’s numbers for 2019, but they tell a similar story, so I’m using last season because I’m interested in comparing Reyes’ breakout with Baez’s breakout. Both players own “poor” swing, chase, and swinging-strike rates. Yet neither one suffers from it because of how they turn those additional swings into extra-base hits.

In 2018, Baez ranked 21st in the league with 8.7 Barrels per plate appearance (Brls/PA%) and 36th in the league with 12.6 Barrels per batted-ball event (Brls/BBE%). This season, Franmil Reyes ranks 11th in Brls/PA% with 12.0, and he is 21st with 17.1 Brls/BBE%. All four of those ratios are excellent, but the difference between their respective BBE and PA ranks suggests that Baez and Reyes have slightly worse barrels per batted-ball event than we might expect for hitters with their Brls/PA profile.

Baez and Reyes make ideal contact slightly less often than other high-caliber hitters with similar profiles... but make up for it by the sheer volume of strong contact.

That hypothesis is supported if we look at Statcast’s measurement for balls launched at an ideal angle, Sweet Spot Ratio (SwSp%), which it defines as a “launch angle between eight and 32 degrees.” Reyes and Baez both hit the ball hard, but they also generate a moderate number of less-than-ideal results. Reyes owns a 40.0% SwSp% and Baez has a 40.7%. Those ratios are good, but not great. Fortunately, however, Baez and Reyes make up for it by the sheer volume of strong contact. That's particularly true for Reyes, who ranks 130th plate appearances but 12th in barrels.

 

Disciples of the School of Hard Knocks

Looking more broadly there are a host of players around the league who fit this profile: hitters with high swing rates and ten or more barrels (top-100). They are arranged here by Barrels per plate appearance.

Name O-Swing% Swing% SwStr% wOBA FB/LD Velo Brrls/PA xwOBA Barrels Total
Franmil Reyes 38.4% 58.1% 17.2% 0.353 96.7 11.6% .397 17
Javier Baez 43.6% 54.7% 17.0% 0.406 97.8 9.9% .391 17
J.D. Martinez 34.7% 53.2% 13.3% 0.378 98.0 9.8% .456 19
Avisail Garcia 40.9% 55.5% 20.3% 0.352 95.8 9.8% .376 15
Eddie Rosario 42.8% 55.9% 10.7% 0.337 95.3 9.3% .347 15
Adalberto Mondesi 42.5% 57.4% 18.0% 0.332 93.5 8.4% .316 15
Yasiel Puig 39.9% 57.3% 15.8% 0.282 92.6 8.3% .324 14
Brandon Lowe 35.2% 54.7% 20.8% 0.371 96.1 8.3% .334 12

There are some impressive hitters on the list. As the most selective and strongest hitter, JD Martinez stands out in particular, but Rosario, Puig, and Mondesi are all players you want to own as well.

Avisail Garcia and Brandon Lowe both strike me as fascinating names here. Garcia has a history of impressive performance and notable hot streaks that have been interrupted by inconsistency or injury. Despite the fact that he seems to have been around forever, Garcia is still just 27 years old. Brandon Lowe could put up 2017-Joey-Gallo numbers: a 35% strikeout rate and 40 home runs. Lowe's batting average should be a little higher, but the fundamental production might be comparable.

I’m actually surprised not to see Gallo on this list, but he’s demonstrating such dramatically improved plate discipline that he looks to have graduated, but maybe the walks are just from teams pitching around him.

 

Prognostications of the End Times

None of this is to say that Baez and Reyes are totally immune to the type of trouble that many experts predicted for Baez. The core concern is that any player who exercises “poor plate discipline” and relies solely on contact to reach base is more susceptible to cold streaks and pitchers who work around the zone. For example, the start of Reyes’ 2019 season. Obviously, it would be better if Reyes was able to produce this type of power while also laying off pitches outside the zone.

At some point pitchers will just stop throwing strikes to Reyes, and they’ll attempt to exploit his willingness to swing outside the zone. There’s no doubt that Reyes will have to make some adjustments, but the reality is that Reyes' plate coverage has been exceptional this season (Image courtesy of Fangraphs):

“Plate discipline” and walks have become so sacrosanct that we’ll likely start seeing calls to sell Reyes in the same way that we did with Baez. The reality is that it’s unlikely owners will be able to get fair trade value out of Reyes. There will be some trade partners willing to pay a fair price, but that number will be limited.

Reyes may defy the prevailing wisdom about success and production in baseball, but his success is not without precedent or pattern. Given the reliance on batted balls, he'll be more prone to BABIP fluctuations. He’s likely to run into a cold stretch this season, as Baez did in May of last year, but keep an eye on his BABIP, velocity, and Sweet-Spot splits, which should give us an indication of whether he is genuinely struggling at the plate or just going through some bad luck.

Like Baez last season, Reyes makes a potential buy-high or hold candidate. I wouldn’t overvalue him, but he’s looking like a top-100 player in batting average leagues. And if Garcia or Lowe emerge as a potential all-star, you’ll have a sense of how to judge them.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF