Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Valero Texas Open

You’ll have to excuse me if I seem a little frazzled in this write-up, as visions of Scottie Scheffler’s missed 4-footer on the 13th green still burn brightly in my mind. Having a 14-1 ticket go from the driver’s seat of his playoff semi-final to the consolation bracket in the span of a few minutes is undoubtedly a tough pill to swallow, but these are the wild swings we sign up for in this crazy game we call outright golf betting. 

Overall, it was a wonderful final act for the Tour in Austin, and I’m extremely happy for Sam Burns and his backers. Despite Scheffler’s mistakes, it cannot be understated that Burns went shot for shot with the best player in the world over 21 holes and had Scottie on the ropes for a large part of that match.

As a golf fan, Match Play was everything we cracked it up to be. I sincerely hope that last week's article won’t be the last time I’ll be writing about a match play tournament on the PGA Tour.

Event Preview

There’s no time like the present to reverse our betting fortunes, and unlike my opinions on the win-equity up and down the Masters odds board (more on that next week), the Valero Texas Open is about as wide open of an event as you’ll ever see on the PGA Tour.  Three of the last four winners in San Antonio could be found at 150-200/1 on the closing line, and only one name since 2011 (Jordan Spieth, 2021), would have been considered a household name prior to his Valero triumph. 

The strength of field this week doesn’t give me a lot of belief that these trends will be slowing down either, as just two of the OWGR's Top 30 will be teeing it up in San Antonio. Notably, each of the two also comes in with a questionable tag next to his name on the injury report.It is unknown how much Tyrell Hatton's hand injury affected his play in Austin. But for one of the preeminent pre-tournament dark horses, an 0-3 record in group play was a surprising splash of cold water on what had otherwise been a stellar early-season run.

As for the second marquee name, Hideki Matsuyama returns to the site of the first recorded instance of his nagging neck problems. Nearly one year to the day since withdrawing here in San Antonio, the Japanese ace was once again forced to record a DNF at Austin CC last week. Recent results at Sawgrass and Torrey Pines have shown us that Hideki is more than capable of flashing his prime ability, but the inconsistencies have to be maddening to the '21 Masters Champ.

Despite the lack of star power at the top of the odds board, there will still be plenty on the line Sunday afternoon. Aside from the $1.6 million top prize and the title of PGA Tour winner, the winner this week will also receive the final invite into next week’s field at Augusta National. 

For Masters’ veterans like Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar, as well as up-and-comers like Davis Riley and Taylor Montgomery, the objective is very simple: beat this 144-man field in San Antonio, and you’ll officially become one of just 89 players on the planet with the chance to call themselves the 2023 Masters Champion.

The Golf Course

With El Camaleon’s departure from the schedule, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio now stands as the only Greg Norman design remaining on the PGA Tour calendar. Not that you could draw many comparisons between the two anyway, as the Oaks Course measures over 400 yards longer than its Mayakoban counterpart, and plays a lot more like its neighboring courses in the Southwest like TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin, and Colonial.

The fairways at TPC San Antonio are some of the most difficult to hit all year: carrying a driving accuracy percentage nearly 6% lower than the Tour average. With that said, all is not lost if you do miss the short grass by a few yards, as the rough here measures just 2-2.5” on average and carries the lowest stroke penalty on Tour. 

However, there is plenty of trouble to be found as players venture farther and farther off-line. TPC San Antonio ranks fourth on Tour in non-rough penalty (the difference in stroke average between a drive finding the fairway and a drive missing in a non-rough location). Much of that is to do with the unpredictability of Texan terrain off of the manicured green spaces.

While San Antonio isn’t a pure desert golf experience as we see in Scottsdale or Las Vegas, the brush-lined native areas are more than plentiful enough to expect some penalty strokes on horribly wayward tee shots.

I believe this is a large reason why we’ve seen more accurate players like Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Martin Laird, and Matt Kuchar find continued success here. Although the Oaks Course features its fair share of long, demanding holes, the dispersion patterns from a lot of longer hitters are too wide to consistently avoid these landmines - especially in a field like this, where elite total drivers of the ball are few and far between.

The other standout feature of TPC San Antonio lies in its deep bunkering. Greg Norman designs are well known for their cavernous bunkers, and this feature is one of the few throughlines you can draw between TPC San Antonio and El Camaleon. The Oaks Course has ranked as the fifth most difficult course to get up and down from its greenside bunkers - whilst also being one of the easier courses in scrambling percentage out of the fairway and rough. With an average GIR % of 58.8% (nearly 8% lower Tour Average), and Texas's ever-present threat of wind, I will absolutely be weighing sand saves in my modeling. 

But of course, no matter how difficult fairways are to hit or how deep the greenside bunkers become, iron play will always be a fundamental keystone of a player's success this week. TPC San Antonio in particular features some of the toughest greens to hit in regulation on the PGA Tour, and many approach shots this week will be to elevated targets, with tight greenside surrounds collecting anything without proper distance and direction. 

Over the last five years, winners here at TPC San Antonio have ranked 2nd, 1st, 1st, 4th, and 23rd on approach for the week, and the last four Valero Champions have entered the week off of the back of a stellar iron week: each gaining at least five shots on approach in their previous start.

In terms of approach yardage distribution, TPC San Antonio doesn't lean too heavily in any direction. Each 25-yard increment (100-125, 125-150, 150-175, 175-200, and 200+), accounts for between 13-20% of total approaches, so players will be expected to play a multitude of different approach shots this week. As such, I’ll be relying on more general iron stats like SG: Approach and Birdie Chances Created as opposed to specialized proximity ranges.

And finally, the greens: TPC San Antonio features a Poa Trivialis overseed very similar to what we've been seeing throughout the Southwest/Florida swing. PGA West, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, and Austin CC have all featured the same agronomy on their greens, so players should be very familiar with this particular strain. Recent putting splits are about as predictive as they'll ever be in San Antonio this week, as those five courses have all been played within the last two months on Tour.

Scouting the Routing

Despite the winning score cresting (-17) in three of the last four iterations, TPC San Antonio has historically played as one of the more difficult mid-tier events on the PGA Tour.

With a scoring average of 72.44 and eight holes with a bogey or worse rate of over 20%, there are plenty of opportunities to gain strokes on the field by simply treading water. In particular, the 1st, 4th, 9th, 13th, and 15th holes are ones I'd classify as "Bogey Avoidance Opportunities," as a par on any of these holes would cut the average field by about two-tenths of a stroke.

The Oaks Courses' difficulty is further emphasized by the complexity of its Par 5's (the second toughest set of three shotters on Tour). Only the 553-yard 14th hole will be reachable in two for the majority of the field, whereas the 2nd, 8th, and 18th holes all measure over 590 yards and carry bogey or worse rates of 13, 18, and 16 percent.

There is a bit of hope for players that find themselves stuck in neutral on these long Par 5's, however, as TPC San Antonio features 5 Par 4's that measure under 410 yards and carry a birdie or better rate of >15%. In particular, the 347-yard 17th is the second easiest hole on the course - playing nearly a quarter-stroke under par historically. If a player is unable to separate himself on the Par 5's, he'd better be very adept in creating birdie chances with a wedge in hand.

From a live-betting angle on Thursday and Friday, there is a fairly stark contrast between which side a player starts on this week. For those starting on the front, they'll be faced with the three most difficult holes on the course in the first half of their round (1, 4, 9), and a front-nine scoring average of 36.6.

Starters on the inward half won't exactly be eased into their rounds either, as the first four holes (10-13) all carry bogey or worse rates over 20%. However, for players that are able to navigate those early landmines, the next five holes will offer up the clearest scoring opportunities on the entire property.

The five-hole stretch from 14-18 features three of the easiest holes on the course  (14, 17, 18), and acts in direct contrast to the "Snake Pit" we saw at Innisbrook two weeks ago. Whereas the finishing stretch at the Copperhead course was a white-knuckle affair, Valero's final five holes play to a cumulative scoring average of (-0.54).

This is the most scoreable stretch of the golf course by some distance, and players with these holes in their back pockets should be treated much differently than a player finishing up on the front side. A pedestrian (-1) or (-2) round can quickly become one of the rounds of the day with a few good shots down the closing stretch.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Si Woo Kim (28-1): A 7,400-yard Greg Norman design in the heart of Texas doesn’t exactly scream Si Woo Kim in the same way a positional, Bermudagrass Par 70 might, but the Korean star has been extremely successful in San Antonio over the course of his career. In five Valero starts since 2017, Si Woo has made 5/5 cuts and logged finishes of 4th, 13th, 22nd, and 23rd. Kim ranks 2nd in this field in SG: Total at the Oaks Course in that span and has never lost strokes off the tee or on the greens. 

Fast forward to his recent play, and Si Woo leads this field from tee-to-green over his last 36 rounds, ranks fifth in SG: APP, fourth in Sand Saves, and first in Birdie Opportunites Created. It’s tough to find a player in better form, and although he gets a reputation for being wildly unpredictable, Si Woo has shown he can consistently stack results at courses he’s had prior success at (Sedgefield, Sawgrass, PGA West, etc). With the comfort he’s shown around this track, and the way he’s striking the ball right now, Si Woo is undoubtedly one of the more dangerous names in this field.

Chris Kirk (33-1): In a similar vein to Si Woo, Chris Kirk is another “course horse” that has clearly leveled up his profile to start 2023. There may not be a more balanced player in the field this week, as Kirk rates inside the Top 10 in all four of my key tee-to-green metrics (SG: APP, SG: ARG, Good Drive %, Birdie Chances Created). Kirk has also come close before at the Oaks Course - registering two 6ths, an 8th, and a 13th place finish here in seven starts since 2015.

He’s already broken through early this year with a win at the Honda Classic (another course that he’d shown some flashes beforehand), and we’re getting a similar pre-tournament number in a weaker field than the one he beat in Palm Beach Gardens. I think it’s very possible he pops up again.

Ryan Fox (50-1): A very familiar name to those of us that also dabble in the DP World Tour, Fox has made the most of his first extended stateside appearance. The 36-year-old New Zealander came one win short of advancing through his group in last week's Match Play (gaining over six shots ball-striking over two rounds in the process), and finished T14 and T27 in back-to-back elevated events at Bay Hill and Sawgrass.

These results have not been at all surprising to those that have followed him around the world over the last 12+ months, as Fox was one of the most prolific all-around players in Europe last year- rating 5th in SG: T2G and 3rd in Scoring Average over the entire 2022 season. Fox parlayed the best statistical season of his life into a whopping TEN Top 10 finishes in 24 starts, including two wins and four runner-ups - many of those results coming against a similar strength of field (or stronger), to what we’ll see this week in San Antonio. 

He’s in form, priced at 50-1, and possesses a winning pedigree that can only be matched by a select few in this field. I'm more than willing to take a chance on the Kiwi this week.

Akshay Bhatia (150-1): Of course, I couldn’t talk all that junk about longshot winners in the introduction without jumping into the deep end myself. Bhatia represents some of the best ball-striking upside you can find in the triple digits: rating out 8th in Good Drive %, 15th in SG: APP, and 6th in Birdie or Better % over his last 24 rounds. He also comes in having led the Corales field in GIR % last week.

Still just 21 years old and fresh off of three Top 7 finishes over his last eight starts, Akshay now gets an opportunity in a non-alternate field against many of the same players he’s competed with in Puerto Rico and Corales. 150-1 is far too big a number for a talent like this in a field this weak.

The Shortlist

With these four names on the card, we’ve officially used up ~60% of our weekly outright budget. Although names like Rickie Fowler and Davis Riley have caught my attention, I’m not prepared to make a move on either in the 20-25/1 range. Instead, I’m looking at a selection of 3-4 players from 50-100/1 to round out my card. Here are a few names I’ll be keeping a particularly close eye on as the tournament gets underway:

Aaron Rai (50-1): I love the fact that Rai has a truly elite skill in a field with so much uncertainty, as he currently ranks fifth on the entire PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy and 10th in this field in Total Driving. In addition, the stellar iron play that Rai has flashed in spurts throughout his career seems to be coming back to start 2023 - recording approach splits of +2.9, +5.1, and +3.2 in three of his last four tournaments.

Aaron has thrived on long, difficult courses throughout his career (Memorial Park, Torrey Pines, Renaissance Club, etc), and the ball-striking seems to be peaking at just the right time. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in contention this weekend.

Nick Taylor (50-1): Not many guys in this field can claim they went blow for blow with Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm in 2023, but Taylor's runner-up performance at Phoenix earlier this year showed some real guile in the 34-year-old Canadien. Taylor also possesses one of the better all-around profiles in the field - ranking inside the top 40 in all four of my key Strokes Gained metrics, and he comes into this week fresh off of his best iron week in 12 months at the Valspar.

The Valero certainly feels a lot more like a Nick Taylor spot than the WM, but you can certainly draw a few parallels between the two courses. This should be a prime spot for the journeyman to pay off his recent run of form.

Sam Stevens (80-1): One of the more consistent performers on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, the 26-year-old Oklahoma State product has shown some promising ball-striking chops thus far in his debut PGA Tour season. Stevens rates inside the top 15 in this field in Total Driving, Birdie or Better %, Par 5 Scoring, and Birdie Chances Created.

Stevens has taken full advantage of the alternate field events in Puerto Rico and Corales - logging a T3 and a T15 over the last three weeks and finished 13th at the Farmer's Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. The win may be a bridge too far this week, but I like the early returns out of Sam's game. He's definitely one to monitor.

Ben Martin (90-1): Like Griffin in Bermuda and Taylor at Honda before him, Martin is the third "Ben" that has found his way to the top of my modeling out of nowhere. Finishes of 8th, 5th and 13th in three of his last five starts back up many of the underlying statistics, but at 35 years old with only one other top-five finish to his name since 2018, it's much more difficult for me to buy all the way into the upside.

However, there is a chance that Martin has turned a real corner to start the 2023 campaign. and at 90-1, it's certainly worth monitoring his early results. The numbers indicate we may very well have another Eric Cole on our hands.

Sepp Straka (100-1): Despite having one of the lowest floors on the entire PGA Tour, Sepp Straka in the triple digits around a long, southeastern Bermudagrass course will always have my attention. I wrote up the Austrian in my Honda Classic article last month, and Straka delivered the second-best ball-striking week of his career in a 5th place finish.

From a statistical perspective, there's not a whole lot of rhyme or reason to these spike performances, but every one of his seven T10s since 2o22 has come in SEC country and he's had a lot of success three hours down the road in Houston (two T5s in 2019, 2020). If he shows any kind of early life, there's no doubt in my mind he can take down a field like this.

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