RADIO
The term sleeper is overused and commonly confused in fantasy sports. Too many people confuse the concept of a player being undervalued (i.e. a player getting drafted in the seventh round that is going to return fifth round value) versus a player being a true sleeper.
In a 12 team, 5x5 league that is typically played by fantasy owners, the end of the draft is oftentimes where the league is won. For the purpose of this post, we are going to identify three different categories of deep sleepers:
- "The Slipper" - These are players that can slip to the back of the draft and provide great value to fantasy baseball teams.
- "The Undrafted" - These are players that are typically not being taken in 12 team fantasy baseball drafts, but should be.
- "The Young Gun" - This is a minor league player that should be called up during the year. Get ahead of the game by drafting and stashing them.
The Slippers
Joe Mauer - 1B, Minnesota Twins
Players in the "slipper" category are oftentimes established big leaguers who the fantasy public now consider "boring" picks. An aging Mauer who no longer qualifies at catcher fits this mold now. However, at only 32 years old, Mauer can still be a productive player that fantasy owners can grab at the end of the draft as other owners will opt for "sexier" picks.
Mauer only hit .277 last season and as usual did not provide much power. Mauer has never been a player that supplied much power, so he has to get back to the .300+ hitter that he's been throughout his career to provide value to his fantasy team. The good news is, in Mauer's down year this past season, his batted ball percentages (line drives, ground-balls, fly-balls) registered right around his career norms. The difference between 2014 Joe Mauer and the previous high-average version was that Mauer struck out at a much higher rate than ever before last season. As long as Mauer can cut down on the K's this season, which seem to be an anomaly, he should return to the .300+ hitter that produces 80+ R and RBI in the middle of a young Twins lineup. Forget about going for the "ooh's and ah's" on draft day and grab Mauer for late round production if he slips.
Aramis Ramirez - 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Speaking of "boring" picks, it feels as if Aramis Ramirez has fit in this category for the past five years. When healthy, all Ramirez does is put up 25+ HR seasons while helping your team AVG hitting .285 for his career. Ramirez has dealt with some injury issues the past two seasons and announced his likely retirement after this season, but that should be reason for him to do everything he can this season to stay on the field and produce one last time.
Ramirez registered 494 AB last season and was able to turn those chances into 15 HR, 66 RBI and his normal .285 AVG. That should be his baseline for the upcoming season and returning to 20 HR, 80 RBI form would not be a huge surprise. Like Mauer, if Ramirez slips in drafts, snatch him up and be happy with your low-risk, strong value return on your late round pick.
The Undrafted
Justin Smoak - 1B, Toronto Jays
For those who have joined me on twitter or in live chats here on RotoBaller, you already know how I feel about Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. Pedigree matters, and if any of these players has pedigree it’s Smoak.
He came up with the Texas Rangers and before the 2010 season was ranked that the #13 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. Progressing through the minors, Smoak was known as a prototypical power-hitting corner infielder who was in a potentially great situation to fit those skills in the HR friendly Park in Arlington. Unfortunately for Smoak, his potential value was so high that he was included as the main piece of a 2010 Cliff Lee trade. The Rangers shipped their potential young power-hitting stud to Seattle and the spacious confines of Safeco Field where homers go to die.
For his career, almost all of which has been played as a member of the Mariners, Smoak puts about 42% of his balls in play in the air. Of those fly-balls, less than 10% were leaving the park while at home in Safeco field while approximately 15% cleared the wall on the road. This largely explains why Smoak has hit .242 with 43 career home runs on the road while struggling to a .205 average with just 31 home runs in his career home games.
The good news is that Smoak has finally moved on from the deep power alleys of Safeco Field to a much more hitter friendly ballpark in Toronto. Expect Smoak to perform more like the hitter he has been on the road this season. Combine that production uptick with the home run friendly ideology of the Blue Jays and Smoak could suddenly be a late round source of power, something that is becoming harder to find in the present day MLB. Steamer, a baseball projection system, has Smoak hitting 14 HR with a .238 AVG this season in just 349 AB. The key here is playing time, and if Smoak can get just a few more at-bats he is a 20 HR candidate which is almost impossible to find in the late rounds of drafts.
Garrett Jones - 1B, New York Yankees
Speaking of potential late-round power, Jones has eclipsed the 20 HR mark three times in his six big league seasons. As a raw total alone, that's an impressive stat for a player that is likely to go undrafted, but when you consider he's shown that power while playing in pitcher friendly ballparks, Jones really starts to catch your eye. Jones has spent the majority of his career in Pittsburgh, the 7th worst ballpark for HR by left-handed hitters, and Miami, the 2nd worst. This season he moves to the New York Yankees, a team in dire need for a power bat and one that plays in the 2nd best park for left handed home run hitting.
Jones' biggest impediment from being a potential great source of power late in the draft is playing time. He's stuck behind an overpaid Mark Teixeira at 1B, an overpaid Alex Rodriguez at DH, and believe it or not an overpaid Carlos Beltran in RF. Being overpaid isn't the only thing Jones' three position blocks have in common though; They are also all injury prone and one injury could open up a spot for Jones to be in the lineup on a daily basis. Currently, Steamer (a baseball projection system) projects Jones for 361 PA resulting in a .250 AVG with 15 HR. The power is where the value lies in drafting Jones, and if a position opens up, or Jones hits well enough to force his way into the lineup, he could find himself in a situation where he receives 500+ PA in which a 25 HR season would not be a shocker.
The Young Gun
Kris Bryant - 3B, Chicago Cubs
I’ve seen quite a few fantasy professionals list player’s other than Bryant as their number one prospect for the upcoming fantasy season. The reason being he isn’t going to break camp with the Cubs so that the team can reserve an extra year of control on his contract. He’ll probably be in the minor’s for the first month while the Cubs bide their time, but to me, five months of Kris Bryant plus one month of a replacement is still going to be more valuable than a full season of most late round corner infield picks. Bryant has major power to all fields, hitting 43 homers last season while maintaining a .325 AVG and 1.098 OPS while splitting plate appearances equally in AA and AAA (297 PA each). Yes, Bryant will strike out a bunch in the bigs and the average will likely settle in the .270 range this year, but the power and run producing potential is real at a fantasy scarce position in 3B. Lastly, have you seen this early spring training bomb? I’m not sure that it’s landed yet.
