Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

First Basemen Set to Bust in 2021

When it comes to fantasy baseball strategy, there's typically one thought motivating any owners' desire to draft a first baseman or select one off the waiver wire: to be a run producer.

Even if they're not going to help much in the batting average or steals category, all can be forgiven if they're hitting home runs and racking up RBI on a regular basis. Nabbing a good first baseman or two can be helpful in securing a solid floor for any fantasy baseball owner's squad. Not going with the right ones, or banking too much on potential that hasn't yet been realized can cause plenty of headaches throughout the season.

The following three first basemen all feel overvalued at the moment. They could have a solid 2021 season, but given their current positioning, your time and attention would be well spent looking elsewhere for players who can live up to the expectations attached to these areas of the draft board.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Sign Up Now!


Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 56.43

There's no way around this: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been putting in work this offseason as a way to set himself up for success in 2021. That's incredibly exciting, and it's easy to want to get him on your squad in order to say you benefited from his eventual breakout performance. Doing so would be the stuff of legends, like nabbing Mike Trout before his first full MLB season in 2012. But the thing is, whether it happens or not for Vladito this upcoming season is anyone's guess, and his current ADP is essentially because of the excitement around his weight loss.

Through his first two big-league seasons, he's been a slightly above-average hitter (105 wRC+ in '19, 112 in '20). His 92.5 mph average exit velocity from this past season ranked among the top 15 hitters in baseball, but his barrels per plate appearances actually put him just outside the top 50. While Guerrero's power took a step forward in 2020, as his ISO went from .162 to .199, he won't realize the draw-dropping potential that made him a top prospect until his batted-ball profile makes a shift.

His soft-hit rate (20.8% to 14.2%) and hard-hit rate (34.4% to 38.8%) both went in the right direction last season. However, it was accompanied by a 56.4% ground-ball rate (a five-percentage point increase from 2019) and a 27.9% fly-ball rate (a drop of nearly six percentage points). While Guerrero's plate discipline improved during his sophomore season, the true test will be how things continue to shake out over the course of a full season in 2021, which will be his age-22 campaign.

He's got a lot to learn and grow from, especially at such a young age, and it's hard to accept those bumps in the road (without having a sense of how frequent or infrequent they could be) at his current ADP.


Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 148.74

If there's one thing that should jump off the page when taking a look at Ryan Mountcastle's stats from his rookie season with the Orioles, it should be his BABIP. His .398 BABIP was the sixth-highest in 2020 among hitters with at least 140 plate appearances. This was accomplished without much of an eye-popping batted-ball profile, either -- Baltimore's rookie first baseman posted a 19.4% line-drive rate with a 43.9% ground-ball rate, a 19.4% soft-hit rate, and a 34.7% hard-hit rate.

What's concerning here is his plate discipline. That 21.7% strikeout rate looks mighty nice for someone who could be a run production and provide some power at a hitter-friendly home ballpark, but it's actually quite alarming when scrolling down and seeing that it's paired with a 16.2% swinging-strike rate. He also did a lot of swinging during his first taste of big-league action, evidenced by his 58.8% swing rate, which was the second-highest in the majors. Mountcastle's 83.1% swing rate on strikes was the third-highest, which is a good situation to be aggressive in, but it was accompanied by a 42.0% chase rate, which was also among the highest in the league.

This was all paired with a 72.5% contact rate, which was barely inside the top 160 hitters. Unless there's a change in approach heading into 2021, there seems to be a good bit of regression on tap for the soon-to-be 24-year-old with a full 162-game schedule on tap.


Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 169.89

Since debuting for the Phillies in 2017, Rhys Hoskins has been a mostly consistent fantasy baseball contributor when looking at his season-long statistics. In the shortened 2020 season, he posted a .258 ISO and 140 wRC+, which were both the highest they've been since he burst onto the scene as a rookie. He's also projected to hit in the middle of a lineup that has a number of offensive weapons in front of him, like Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto, to name a few.

Even with all of that going for him, there are concerning underlying statistics that can't be ignored.

Hoskins' 50.4% fly-ball rate since 2017 is second in baseball, which would feel like a good thing since that hypothetically gives him the most chances to hit home runs. What's concerning, though, is he's continually watched his infield-fly rate climb with each season. After posting an 8.8% rate in this category as a rookie, that number has risen to 11.3%, 15.3%, and 17.9% in the three years that followed.

Then, there's his increasing swinging-strike rate. That number has also climbed each season, going from 7.1% to 7.9% to 8.5% to 10.0%. His strikeout rate has continued to hover around the 21-25% range, but one would have to imagine that will change if this trend continues. Something else that has increasingly gotten worse since 2017 is Hoskins' contact rate. After making contact at an 81.2% clip as a rookie, that number has decreased each year, culminating in 2020 with a 75.9% rate.

Last, but most certainly not least, is Hoskins' performance against the most common pitch he sees each season: the four-seam fastball. His wRC+ against this pitch has fallen a full 100 points (206 to 106) since 2017, and more importantly, his ISO has taken a consistent nosedive during the same span of time (.441, .304, .240, .135). It looks like the 27-year-old took a step forward in some respects during 2020, but there should be concern over whether it'll be sustainable over 162 games.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Advice


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts


Jack Suwinski25 mins ago

Absent From Sunday's Lineup
Jon Berti37 mins ago

Getting A Day Off Sunday
Zach Neto45 mins ago

Off On Sunday
Hunter Renfroe52 mins ago

Getting A Rest Sunday
Kyle Tucker1 hour ago

Not Playing Sunday
Dinelson Lamet1 hour ago

Likely Starting Wednesday
Max Muncy2 hours ago

Left Early With A Hamstring Cramp
Jeff McNeil2 hours ago

Not In The Lineup On Sunday Against Colorado
Jesse Winker2 hours ago

Scratched With Neck Discomfort
Juan Soto2 hours ago

Scratched With Back Tightness On Sunday
Kyle Tucker2 hours ago

Scratched From Sunday's Lineup
Matt Moore2 hours ago

Lands On The 15-Day Injured List
Brenton Doyle2 hours ago

Still Absent From The Lineup On Sunday
Esteury Ruiz2 hours ago

Sitting Out On Sunday
New York Jets2 hours ago

Quinnen Williams, Jets May Be Nearing A Deal
Josh Donaldson2 hours ago

Could See Another Rehab Game On Tuesday
Anthony Santander2 hours ago

Back In The Lineup On Sunday
Jimmy Garoppolo3 hours ago

Contract Has Waiver Included
Max Muncy3 hours ago

Leaves Game Early Sunday
Jose Trevino3 hours ago

Could Return Tuesday
Giancarlo Stanton3 hours ago

Could Begin Rehab Assignment Tuesday
Xander Bogaerts3 hours ago

Back In Sunday's Lineup
Carlos Rodón3 hours ago

Carlos Rodon To Throw Bullpen On Monday
Jonathan Marchessault4 hours ago

Posts Two Assists Saturday Night
Thomas Harley4 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Game 6 Win
Ty Dellandrea4 hours ago

Keeps Dallas Alive With Late Goals
Duncan Robinson5 hours ago

Has 13 Points In Game 6 Against Boston
Max Strus5 hours ago

Scores 10 Points In Game 6 Loss
Chase Elliott5 hours ago

Believes He’s Got A Good Shot To Win Coca-Cola 600
Alex Bowman5 hours ago

Facing Uphill Battle In Coca-Cola 600 Return
Ryan Preece5 hours ago

Hopeful To Start Putting Pieces Together For Good Runs
Gabe Vincent5 hours ago

Returns With 15 Points
Bam Adebayo5 hours ago

Posts Sixth Postseason Double-Double
Corey Lajoie5 hours ago

Looking To Continue Career-Best Season At Charlotte
NASCAR5 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Hoping For First-Ever Top 10 Finish At Charlotte
Caleb Martin5 hours ago

Produces Impressive Double-Double In Game 6
AJ Allmendinger5 hours ago

A DFS Sleeper Pick For The Coca-Cola 600
Jimmie Johnson5 hours ago

Doesn't Feel Prepared For Coca-Cola 600
Jimmy Butler5 hours ago

Flirts With Triple-Double Saturday
Zane Smith6 hours ago

Hoping To Learn & Get Better At Charlotte
Todd Gilliland6 hours ago

Facing Significant Equipment Downgrade At Charlotte
John Collins13 hours ago

Still Available
Marcus Smart14 hours ago

Has Solid Showing In Game 6
Jaylen Brown14 hours ago

Has 26 Points In Win Over Miami
Robert Williams14 hours ago

III Finishes With 10 Points Saturday
Derrick White14 hours ago

Forces A Game 7
Jayson Tatum14 hours ago

Scores 31 Points In Game 6
DeAndre Hopkins18 hours ago

Bills, Chiefs Had "Substantive" Talks About Trading For DeAndre Hopkins
Travis Etienne Jr.18 hours ago

Working On "Fine-Tuning" Skills
Arizona Cardinals18 hours ago

Budda Baker Will Be At Training Camp
Austin Dillon19 hours ago

Could Be Place Differential King At Charlotte
Erik Jones19 hours ago

Could Be Good Early At Charlotte
Daniel Suarez19 hours ago

Has Upside At Coca-Cola 600
Aric Almirola19 hours ago

Stuck In Middle Of The Pack For Charlotte
Chase Briscoe19 hours ago

Tries To Turn Back Clock At Charlotte
Ty Gibbs19 hours ago

Could Provide DFS Value At Charlotte
Joey Logano19 hours ago

Tries To Bounce Back From Charlotte Mishap
Martin Truex Jr19 hours ago

. Wants To Turn Back Clock At Charlotte
Justin Haley20 hours ago

Might Have Challenge At Charlotte
Tyler Reddick20 hours ago

Aims To Move Up At Charlotte
Ross Chastain22 hours ago

Looking For A Win At Charlotte
Harrison Burton22 hours ago

On The Hot Seat For Results
Jerome Kapp1 day ago

Jets Sign Jerome Kapp
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Dre Greenlaw Recovering From Finger Surgery
Chris Moore1 day ago

Willing To Play Any Role
Gary Brightwell1 day ago

Could Be Buried On Depth Chart
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Terence Steele Limited At OTAs
Marquise Brown1 day ago

Becomes Cardinals' No. 1 Receiver
Deshaun Watson1 day ago

Jordan Akins Eager To Work With Deshaun Watson Again
Deshaun Watson1 day ago

Elijah Moore Building Chemistry With Deshaun Watson
Gabe Vincent2 days ago

Questionable On Saturday
Tyler Herro2 days ago

Remains Out For Game 6
Bam Adebayo2 days ago

Good To Go For Game 6
Malcolm Brogdon2 days ago

Questionable For Game 6
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

Bills "Lurking" As A Favorite To Land DeAndre Hopkins
Davante Adams2 days ago

Josh McDaniels Has No Issues With Davante Adams Venting
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2 days ago

Bucs Expect Devin White At Minicamp
Darren Waller2 days ago

Enjoying Time In New York
Dalvin Cook2 days ago

Now Considering A Pay Cut?
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

Chiefs A Potential Landing Spot For DeAndre Hopkins?
Detroit Pistons2 days ago

Detroit Brings Kevin Ollie And Charles Lee In For Second Interviews
Atlanta Hawks2 days ago

Hawks Hire Igor Kokoskov As Lead Assistant Coach
Joel Embiid2 days ago

Still Considered Untouchable
D'Angelo Russell2 days ago

Lakers Won't Pursue The Max For D'Angelo Russell
Fred VanVleet2 days ago

Raptors Unsure If They Want To Re-Sign Fred VanVleet
Tyler Allgeier2 days ago

Not Concerned About Usage
Hendon Hooker2 days ago

Preparing Himself Mentally
Jack Eichel2 days ago

Keeps The Assists Coming
William Karlsson2 days ago

Matches Vegas Record With Eighth Postseason Goal
Miro Heiskanen2 days ago

Delivers Two Power-Play Assists
Jason Robertson3 days ago

Scores Two Goals In Game 4 Victory
Joe Pavelski3 days ago

Scores Overtime Winner In Game 4
Jake Oettinger3 days ago

The Confirmed Starter For Game 4
Evgenii Dadonov3 days ago

Will Be Out Of The Lineup For Dallas
Adin Hill3 days ago

Will Mind The Vegas Crease In Game 4
Jamie Benn3 days ago

Suspended For Two Games
Sergei Bobrovsky3 days ago

Remains Sharp In Series-Clincher
Aleksander Barkov3 days ago

Hands Out Two Assists In Game 4 Victory
Matthew Tkachuk4 days ago

Late Goal Sends Panthers To Stanley Cup Final
Michael Block4 days ago

A Fade At Charles Schwab
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Looks To Regain Form
Viktor Hovland4 days ago

Teeing It Up After Close Call At PGA Championship
PGA4 days ago

J.T. Poston Tough To Include In Fantasy Lineups
Beau Hossler4 days ago

Worth Fantasy Consideration Heading To Colonial
Billy Horschel4 days ago

Inconsistency Makes Him A Tough Choice
Ryan Fox4 days ago

An Intriguing Pick For Fantasy Lineups
Alex Smalley4 days ago

A Risky Option For Fantasy Lineups
Christiaan Bezuidenhout4 days ago

To Bounce Back After Missed Cut
Brendon Todd4 days ago

A Risky Fantasy Play At Colonial
PGA4 days ago

Byeong Hun An's Impressive Play Makes Him Strong Fantasy Option
PGA4 days ago

K.H. Lee Looks To Continue Playing Well
Tom Hoge4 days ago

A Viable Fantasy Option At Colonial
PGA4 days ago

Cameron Davis Playing Well Heading To Colonial
Max Homa4 days ago

A Reliable Fantasy Option At Colonial
Will Gordon4 days ago

A Solid Option In Texas
Cameron Champ4 days ago

Worth A Look At Colonial
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

A Solid Sleeper At Colonial
Sam Stevens4 days ago

Worth A Shot At Charles Schwab
Ryan Palmer4 days ago

Is It Safe To Start Ryan Palmer In Texas?
Maverick McNealy4 days ago

In A Major Slump
Aleksander Barkov5 days ago

Expected To Play In Game 4
Mark Stone5 days ago

Jamie Benn Ejected For Cross-Checking Mark Stone In Game 3
Ivan Barbashev5 days ago

Collects Three Points In Game 3 Victory
Adin Hill5 days ago

Posts First Career Playoff Shutout In Game 3
Sergei Bobrovsky6 days ago

Posts First Career Playoff Shutout In Game 3
Aleksander Barkov6 days ago

Suffers Lower-Body Injury In Game 3