RADIO
The Final Four is set to commence in Phoenix, Arizona this coming Saturday, with these four spectacular teams fighting to reach the pinnacle of college basketball: UConn, Alabama, Purdue, and NC State.
The narratives we have in this final weekend are nothing short of incredible, highlighted by the 11-seed NC State Wolfpack who were 1 made free throw away from having their season end back on March 15, and now find themselves in their first Final Four since 1983. UConn is fighting to have their name etched among the greatest teams in the history of the sport with their dominant run and quest for consecutive titles. Alabama is the poster child of the new analytics movement with their incredible pace and reliance on three-point shots, and Purdue is attempting to pull off another all-time turnaround title a la Virginia in 2019, both having lost to 16-seeds the year prior.
All phenomenal stories culminating in what will be a great night of basketball a few days from now. Here is a look at each of the Final Four teams, along with some tidbits on their upcoming matchups and odds to take home the title.
1. UConn Huskies (-195)
Record: 35-3 (18-2)
Accomplishments: Big East Regular Season Title, Big East Tournament Champions
KenPom metrics: First overall (first in adjusted offense, fourth in adjusted defense)
Path to F4: No. 16 Stetson, No. 9 Northwestern, No. 5 San Diego State, No. 3 Illinois
Is this really a foregone conclusion? That's what it seems like among a majority of media pundits who are already claiming a repeat title for the Huskies. It's hard to blame them after watching UConn run roughshod over their first four opponents by an average of 28 points. Dating back to last season's tournament, the Huskies are a combined 10-0 against the spread and have won by 23 points on average. This team is truly on a historic two-year run that is unprecedented in modern college basketball.
The strength of this team is well, everything. That's why they are nearly impossible to beat. Dan Hurley's squad boasts an elite backcourt of All-Big East first-team guards in Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer, as well as the freshman of the year in Stephon Castle who is already one of the top perimeter defenders in the country. After a slow start to the year dealing with some injuries, Donovan Clingan has been an absolute force on both ends of the floor. UConn's 30-0 run against Illinois in the Elite Eight was brought to you by the defense of the man they call Cling-Kong. The Illini finished the game a staggering 3/25 from inside the arc, and were 0-19 on shots challenged by the UConn big man. 0 for 19. He's the primary reason that UConn ranks No. 2 in opposing two-point FG percentage defense.
Alex Karaban is the forgotten member of this starting five but is one of the most versatile offensive weapons in all of college basketball. The stretch-four is a dead-eye three-point shooter (78 makes on 38%) and automatic from the line (88%). Karaban ranks No. 16 in EvanMiya's offensive rating, and he is joined by the aforementioned Clingan, Spencer, and Newton who all claim spots in the top-15 (Clingan also ranks No. 1 in defensive rating). UConn's bench is not as good as last season, but they still have the Big East Sixth Man of the Year in Hassan Diarra to help spell the guards, and uber-athletic lob threat Samson Johnson to bring another dynamic element to the offense when Clingan sits.
If you had to pick nits, you could point to the three-point shooting of this team which is 69th in the country (36%). However, UConn has actually shot the three well below average during this Final Four run (28%) and it hasn't mattered in the slightest. This team wears their opposition down in so many different ways, and if they find their stroke from three, it's curtains.
While it's hard to envision any team taking down UConn, Alabama does have some of the right formula to pull it off. The Crimson Tide pride themselves on playing at a breakneck pace and taking only three-pointers and shots directly at the rim. With Donovan Clingan playing like he is, I'm not sure Alabama is going to have much success with the latter, which will likely prompt them to take well over their average of 30.1 threes per game. This is a long shot (no pun intended), but if the Crimson Tide can nail somewhere between 15-20 or more from long range in this game, they may have a fighting chance to pull off a shocker. With how poor Alabama is on the defensive end (105th in adjusted defense), UConn is going to score at will, which makes the three-point line all that more important. It's a fairly straightforward game plan, but one that is much easier said than done, especially with Mark Sears likely drawing the aforementioned Castle on defense.
NEW: I polled a double-digit amount of coaches and broadcasters to put this UConn team in perspective. One 20-year head coach: “They are the best team I have ever coached against.” Some great stories and quotes here about the Huskies: https://t.co/QHOnlGTs3E
— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) April 3, 2024
2. Purdue Boilermakers (+205)
Record: 33-4 (18-2)
Accomplishments: Maui Invitational Title, Big Ten Regular Season Title, Big Ten Tournament Champions
KenPom metrics: Third overall (second in adjusted offense, 17th in adjusted defense)
Path to F4: No. 16 Grambling State, No. 8 Utah State, No. 5 Gonzaga, No. 2 Tennessee
Matt Painter has finally broken through, and it only took a repeat Wooden Award player to get him there. In his 19th season as head coach of Purdue, amassing 446 wins, five Big Ten regular season titles, and two tournament championships, Painter has reached his first career Final Four. That is honestly a testament to just how hard it is to win in March because Painter is easily one of the top coaches in the country and his appearance on this stage is long overdue.
It's been quite the ride for the Boilermakers, who famously (or infamously, if you're a Purdue fan) became the second team ever to lose to a 16-seed when they dropped their first-round game to Farleigh Dickinson last season. Now, with the core of their team back, they are on the path to ultimate redemption and are two games away from college basketball history.
It's unfortunate for Purdue that the No. 1 team on this list has been dominating as much as they have because the Boilermakers have been handling their competition with relative ease thus far as well. 2023 National Player of the Year Zach Edey has been the most dominant player in the tournament by a wide margin, averaging over 30 points and 16 rebounds, including a career-high 40 vs. No. 2 Tennessee in the Elite Eight. All the talk has been about the seven-foot-four big man, but sophomore point guard Braden Smith needs more love. As a freshman, Smith had seven turnovers and shot 2-10 from the field in the historic loss to FDU, but has clearly put that behind him. The Westfield, Indiana native, has been one of the top floor generals in the tournament thus far, putting up 10 points, 9.5 assists, and six rebounds while shooting 44% from the field and was two rebounds shy of a triple-double against Gonzaga.
Smith's backcourt mate from last season, Fletcher Loyer, hasn't increased his scoring average but he's played his role to perfection. The sophomore wing has upped his three-point percentage from 32.6% a season ago to a Big Ten-leading 44.1% in 2023-24. Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones has been an incredible three-and-D portal addition for Painter and hybrid forwards Trey Kaufman-Renn and Mason Gillis do the dirty work for this team to round out a complete roster that, like UConn, doesn't have many holes.
If Purdue is going to win the title it will have to be through the best player in the country, Zach Edey. Shocking revelation, I know. Especially with a hot DJ Burns awaiting in their upcoming matchup, Edey is going to have to attack Burns right from the get-go and try to neutralize him by drawing fouls (which he is the best in the nation at doing). The Wolfpack may elect to put Mo Diarra on Edey to avoid risk of Burns picking up some quick fouls, which will likely backfire very quickly. Edey has almost 100 pounds on the lanky junior, and will send Diarra out of the game fast. There's a monster waiting for them at the end of either path they choose to take, and his name is Zach Edey.
If we do see Edey vs. Burns to start and the former comes out on top early, this one might be over fairly quickly. NC State has been able to control games working through Burns, who along with having impeccable touch and quick post moves down low is also an elite passer. Doubling him has not proven to be an effective method of defense, so if Purdue is able to limit Burns by simply keeping him off the floor, they should find themselves advancing to their first national championship in 55 years.
“We’re f****** WINNERS, It’s what we do!”- Zach Edey
ZACH EDEY IS FIRED UP🔥🤧
pic.twitter.com/vq23cINZLO— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 31, 2024
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (+1600)
Record: 25-11 (13-5)
Accomplishments: T-2nd in SEC regular season
KenPom metrics: 12th overall (third in adjusted offense, 104th in adjusted defense)
Path to F4: No. 13 Charleston, No. 12 Grand Canyon, No. 1 North Carolina, No. 6 Clemson
There's been a shift in recent years with more emphasis on offensive skills, and it's paid off for teams in the NCAA Tournament. Of the 20 teams to make a Final Four in the past five years, 13 ranked inside the top 10 for adjusted offensive efficiency at the end of the season. That number balloons to 17 when expanding to the top 25. This year has been no exception, with UConn, Purdue, and Alabama coming in first, second, and third respectively in adjusted offense.
While all of these teams are neck and neck in their O-ratings, Alabama's playing style could not be more different than the other two. Nate Oats loves to push the pace as much as possible in the hopes of maximizing the number of possessions for his team. Quick threes and transition layups are the name of the game for Oats, who has quickly ascended to one of the top head coaches in the sport. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in adjusted tempo, third in average possession length, fourth in three-point attempts (30.1/game), and first in points (90.6/game). They want to speed up the game as much as physically possible, and it all starts with their Second-Team All-American point guard Mark Sears.
The Jalen Brunson comps are hard to ignore. Both are crafty left-handers who are excellent shooters and play-makers. Of course, Sears is not at the former National Player of the Year's (and current NBA All-Star's) level, but he may be the best guard in this year's Final Four. His running mate, Aaron Estrada, who is playing on his fourth college team, has been great creating for himself and others by leading the team in assists with 4.7 per contest. These two guys help feed their long-range marksmen, Rylan Griffen, Latrell Wrightsell Jr., and Sam Walters, who all shoot at least 39% from three. Freshman Jarin Stevenson and former North Dakota State superstar Grant Nelson can also hit from outside, with a combined 61 makes between the two of them. Stevenson is a four-star recruit who broke out for a career-high five made threes against Clemson in the Elite Eight. This team loves to shoot the rock from a distance and they do it better than almost anyone.
The outcome of this game will solely come down to the Crimson Tide's ability to hit from deep, because as good as this team is on the offensive end with their fun up-tempo style, they are consistently exposed on the other end of the floor. Alabama has the lowest defensive ranking in this year's Final Four by a wide margin - 102.6, which ranks 105th in the country. In fact, Alabama has the second lowest defensive rating of all Final Four teams since 2002, the inception year of KenPom's efficiency data. Dwayne Wade's Marquette Golden Eagles were the lowest at 99.2 (109th that season). It's true that Bama's defense has been much better over the last four games, but it's still not going to stop UConn's intricate motion offense. Throw in the Crimson Tide's inability to keep opponents off the offensive glass, a huge strength of the Huskies that helps boost their No. 1 overall offensive efficiency ranking, and you potentially have a disaster incoming. Unless of course, Alabama REALLY heats up from the three-point line. That is truly their only chance in this one.
Alabama is heading to the men's Elite Eight and @RealJayWilliams says it's in part because of the Crimson Tide's "NBA-style offense" 😤 pic.twitter.com/omEvTjOij5
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) March 29, 2024
4. NC State Wolfpack (+1600)
Record: 26-14 (9-11)
Accomplishments: ACC Tournament Champions
KenPom metrics: 43rd overall (40th in adjusted offense, 45th in adjusted defense)
Path to F4: No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 14 Oakland, No. 2 Marquette, No. 4 Duke
Flashback to March 12. It's the opening round of the ACC tournament and there are about a hundred-odd fans in attendance for the matchup between the 10th-seeded NC State Wolfpack and the 8-24 15th-seeded Louisville Cardinals. The game is tied at 75 with 4:25 remaining on the clock until Jayden Taylor sinks two threes and the Wolfpack eke out a victory. No one bats an eye. It's not news whatsoever.
Two games later the Wolfpack upset Duke in the quarterfinals. This garners some headlines, but they still need to get through Virginia and potentially UNC to pull off a small miracle.
Against Virginia, they are down three with eight seconds on the clock. 85% FT shooter Isaac McKneely is at the line to ice the game. It's a one-and-one, but McKneely hadn't missed more than one free throw in a game all season and he had already missed one earlier in the game. He misses. Casey Morsell boards and dishes to Michael O'Connell who banks in a 28-foot prayer at the horn to send the game to overtime. NC State dominates the extra period and advances to the ACC championship game against UNC. The DJ duo then drop 49 combined and they claim the ACC tournament title over the Tar Heels to claim an NCAA tournament berth. Second team ever to win five games in fives days and take home a conference tournament title. History made.
Heading into the Big Dance, many thought this team must be emotionally and physically drained from that run. Texas Tech is a battle-tested Big 12 team and should get the best of them. Nope. Easy win for the Wolfpack. You could say they dodged a bullet in the second round by not having to see Kentucky, but this team is not losing that game. Oakland gave them an OT scare, but the Pack prevailed and then shut down a surging Marquette team that was held to 4-31 from behind the arc.
That brought another rematch with Duke in the Elite Eight, and Wolfpack fans will remember this one forever as the DJ Burns game. A near career-high 29 from the big man propelled this team to the most improbable Final Four run maybe ever, when you factor in where they were a month ago.
NC State has won 9 straight elimination games to get to the Final Four. Using pregame win probabilities, the chances of this happening were 0.0097%, or 10314 to 1.
March Madness is unmatched. pic.twitter.com/SA2yBhBU6d
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) April 1, 2024
While this run has been nothing short of unbelievable, with the Wolfpack continuing to defy the odds each and every game, their toughest battle yet still lies ahead. The Boilermakers are unlike any team that NC State has faced this season, simply because they have an unguardable monstrosity on the low block, who is also surrounded by shooters. The closest team to resemble Purdue is UNC with Armando Bacot and RJ Davis operating in their two-man game a la Edey and Smith, but this is still a different beast to deal with.
As he has been for the entire tournament, Burns is going to be the key here. NC State loves to operate through their big man, relying on his adept playmaking abilities in the post. Purdue isn't likely to send any double-teams given the size advantage Edey has, but Burns is much quicker and may be able to get by him with the right leverage and angle. Burns also hit a few mid-range jumpers against Duke and Edey will give him those shots again in this one. It's not his usual game, but he may have to adapt and hit a number of those open looks to keep the game close. These two will be going at it early and the first five minutes of this game will be very telling for how the next 35 will play out.
The Wolfpack also have the perimeter play to match up with Purdue. Braden Smith is the best guard on the floor, but DJ Horne is a better scorer and will need one of his patented Kemba Walker-esque games for NC State to have a chance. Casey Morsell and Jayden Taylor vs. Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones is mostly a push with a slight lean to Purdue, especially with the three-point shooting. NC State will need to run shooters off the arc and pray that Burns can at least stay in the game and provide some resistance to Edey, or this one could also get out of hand.
This was the line into the DJ Burns & DJ Horne Meet & Greet at Applebee’s last night pic.twitter.com/oepxmCXl88
— ACC Champion Barstool Pack (@BarstoolPack) April 3, 2024
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