X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Figuring Out the Buffalo Bills Backfield

Eric Samulski looks at the fantasy football value of the running backs on the Buffalo Bills after the 2020 NFL Draft when the team picked RB Zack Moss to join Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon in the backfield.

After trading for Stefon Diggs at the start of the offseason, the Buffalo Bills had to sit out Day One of the 2020 NFL Draft, but when they got in on the fun on Friday night, they selected two highly-touted college prospects: Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa and Utah RB Zack Moss. For fantasy purposes, Moss is the relevant one of the two names.

Despite the NFL trending towards more open-air attacks and four-wide receiver passing offenses, the Bills were able to adopt some similar spread principles while still running the ball 465 times in 2019, good for sixth in the NFL. That equates to around 29 carries per game.

Josh Allen averaged 6.8 per game and about one carry per game went to wide receivers on trick plays, which left about 21.3 carries per game to be split up among the running backs. With the same coaching personnel returning, it's fair to assume that a similar distribution will occur, so with Frank Gore now out of the picture and Zack Moss in the fold, what will those 21 carries look like for this new-look Bills running back room?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Is Devin Singletary the Lead Back?

Make no mistake about it, the Bills rushing attack still begins with second-year pro Devin Singletary. The Florida Atlantic product was impressive in his first taste of professional football, totaling 151 rushes for 775 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while adding 29 catches for 194 yards and two touchdowns through the air. All of this was despite missing four games and leaving one game early with a hamstring injury.

When he was on the field, Singletary showed elite elusiveness in the open field, which was part of his calling card coming out of college. The 5'7" running back had a 12.6% broken tackle rate and finished tied for 14th in the NFL with 20 broken tackles, despite being the only player in the top 22 on the list to play in 12 games or fewer. In fact, Singletary ranked 5th in the entire NFL in attempts per broken tackle with 7.6.

His elusive nature led to 5.1 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per reception, which is why he will remain the focal point of the Bills backfield. However, he certainly will not be a bell-cow. On the season, Singletary accounted for 49.7% of the Bills total snaps at running back but only 32.5% of the team's total rushes.

Now, much of that had to do with Singletary being a rookie and also nursing a hamstring injury early in the season, but it's still fair to assume that the new top dog's rushing share will likely be capped at 45% of the team's total rushes, especially with Allen in the mix. The Bills simply showed no desire to run their small back too often and risk injury.

Still, 45% of the team's total rushes can be useful in fantasy when you pair that with his 8.5% of team targets, an average of 3.4 a game. The Bills want to run the ball and control the clock, which enabled them to remain in most games during the 2019 season. However, in four of the games where they fell behind, Singletary saw an uptick in usage in the passing game - eight targets against Baltimore and six each against Cleveland, Philadelphia, and the Jets in week one.

As mentioned, with Josh Allen healthy and the Bills remaining focused on getting Singletary some rest to ensure he stays healthy and keeps his elusive burst, the upside for carries is limited. However, 40-45% of carries on one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL could still be 185-205 carries, provided Singletary stays on the field. If he maintains his performance from last year, you're looking at a 1,000-yard rusher who could have about 60+ targets in the passing game (that's only four per game).

FANTASY POTENTIAL: Given the talent that Singletary showed last year, I'm not ready to write off the Moss addition as being a death knell for his fantasy season. For reference, Leonard Fournette finished last year as the ninth-ranked running back in half-PPR formats. He finished with 1,152 rushing yards, 522 receiving yards on 76 catches, and three total touchdowns. It would not surprise me at all if Singletary put up similar numbers, if not better.

 

What Will We Get from Zack Moss?

Despite my belief in Devin Singletary as a viable fantasy asset, I don't think that means he renders Zack Moss fantasy-irrelevant. Last year, despite Singletary's impressive performance, aging veteran Frank Gore had 166 carries for 599 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, but Gore still 35.7% of the team's total rushes because they wanted to lighten Singletary's workload. If an ineffective Gore can see that much work, why can't we assume that for a talented rookie?

The Utah product rushed for 1,416 yards while also catching 28 passes for 388 yards and notching 17 total touchdowns in 2019. He set six all-time records at Utah, including career rushing yards - 4,167 yards - and career rushing touchdowns - 38 TDs. He's a talented and versatile back.

When you dig into closer, you see that he shines in much the same way Singletary does: breaking tackles. PFF marked Moss with the third-highest broken tackles per attempt average in the six years they've tracked college football metrics. The Draft Network said that trying to tackle Moss is "like trying to knock over a weeble-wobble." He may lack high-end speed (although his 40-time at the NFL Combine was marred by a tweaked hamstring), but he has juice in the open field and is "wicked loose for a big man."

All of which is to say that he has the skill-set to be a factor with the carries that he will get, which could be about seven or eight per game if the Bills' usage holds from last year.

However, where Moss will likely see the most fantasy value is in his goal-line role. Last year, Frank Gore saw 21.5% of the team's red zone snaps and 36.6% of their red zone rushing attempts. He was similarly ineffective with those. He had 18 carries from inside the 10-yard line and only an 11.1% conversation rate.

Devin Singletary had a 33.3% conversion rate, yet still only had three rushes and five touches inside the 10-yard line. The Bills simply aren't going to run their 5'7"-200 pound back into the teeth of a defense from 1o-yards out.

However, Zack Moss is built for that at 5'10" 235 pounds. He has repeatedly stated in interviews that he runs with the intention of hurting defenders, and The Draft Network notes that his "tremendous hitting power allows for broken tackles in tight spaces, as well as pile-driving ability in short-yardage situations." Something the Bills severely lacked last year, which was painfully evident watching Frank Gore stumbled over himself for one-yard losses.

FANTASY POTENTIAL:  So, as a baseline, Moss should see 7-9 rushes a game and the majority of red-zone work for a team that will run frequently and likely be in a position to score more than average. If we just take Frank Gore's role from last year, and assume health from Devin Singletary, Moss could see 125 rushes with around 20 rushes inside the 10-yard line. If we give him even modest success that's 500 yards rushing and four touchdowns on the season, as a floor.

Given Moss' value in the receiving game and ability to hold up as a team's feature back, there is a good chance that he would be able to replicate Singletary's value if the second-year back were to be injured for any period of time again. So, while Moss may not be as exciting for some in fantasy drafts as Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, or Cam Akers, he's in a similar, if not better, position for immediate usefulness, with a strong chance at RB2 value if anything should happen to Singletary.

 

Don't Forget T.J. Yeldon

T.J. Yeldon remains on the Buffalo roster and remains a non-factor barring injury. Even with Singletary missing four games last year and Frank Gore being the only other option, Yeldon totaled 17 rushes for 63 yards and 13 catches for 124 yards. He played 14% of team snaps, which was less than fullback Patrick DiMarco's 15.9 percent, and was often inactive because he's not a factor on special teams.

FANTASY POTENTIAL: Yeldon was working on special teams last year, so if he has improved in that regard and can be active on game days as a special teams player and #3 running back, then there is the chance he can steal a few carries, but he sill not be involved in the rushing offense if both Singletary and Moss are healthy.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF