Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

We Must Overreact Immediately! Week 2 Outliers


Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, we are starting to get a better handle on whether certain players are breaking out, or are one-week wonders.

After Week 1, it was unclear whether Marquise Brown would be able to sustain his fantasy production off his 18% snap share. However, in Week 2, Brown saw a huge increase to his snaps, playing on 64.6% of offensive plays which makes a full-on breakout extremely likely for the rookie out of Oklahoma. Fellow rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown, on the other hand, followed up his 100-yard debut with a three catch, 25-yard performance.

Now, here is a breakdown of some of the good and bad performances from Week 2 to help guide you with lineup and roster decisions moving forward.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Demarcus Robinson (WR, KC)

Week 2 Stats: 6 targets, 6 catches, 172 yards and 2 TD

Robinson played on 95.8% of the Chiefs offensive snaps in Week 2 and came through for fantasy owners in a big way. We have seen this before from Robinson. He’s been asked to play an expanded role due to injury in the past, and he normally fails to come through when given the opportunity. However, 2019 may be a different story for Robinson. In 2018 when Sammy Watkins missed time, Robinson played anywhere from half of the Chiefs offensive snaps, to 72.9%, and exceeded 40 yards receiving only twice. As long as Tyreek Hill is out, and Robinson continues to play almost 100% of the Chiefs offensive snaps, he will be a viable WR3 option in 12-team leagues.

Bottom Line: The Chiefs have several mouths to feed in their passing attack, and it’s very likely that Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson or Travis Kelce will absolutely explode or dud any given week. If a defense attempts to take out one of those pass-catchers, the others will burn the opposition and produce in a big way.

 

D.J. Chark (WR, JAX)

Week 2 Stats: 9 targets, 7 catches, 55 yards and 1 TD

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver DJ Chark played on 76.8% of the snaps in Week 2 which is about where he was in Week 1. Chark, however, had a steep increase in targets (nine) this week against the Houston Texans.

Bottom Line: Chark appears to be breaking out and should be owned in all 12-team leagues as Gardner Minshew appears to favor Chark over Dede Westbrook through his first two games. Although Chark is currently in WR1 territory, he cannot be rolled out in 12-team leagues as anything other than a WR3 until he clearly establishes himself as the lead receiver in Jacksonville.

 

Devin Smith (WR, DAL)

Week 2 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 74 yards and 1 TD

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Tavon Austin didn’t suit up against the Redskins in Week 2 and Devin Smith took his place in the lineup. Smith saw about 18% of the snaps in Week 2 which is about the same amount Austin saw in Week 1. Smith looked explosive at times, especially on his 51-yard touchdown catch.

Bottom Line: Michael Gallup is slated to miss a few weeks due to a knee injury requiring a surgical procedure, which means Smith may be viable in Gallup's absence. The Cowboys use a lot of 11-personnel with Randall Cobb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup each playing at least 72.46% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps through the first two weeks of the season. Monitor this receiver situation throughout the week, because Smith may be a viable option in deeper 12 and 14-team leagues if he starts in place of Gallup.

 

Robert Woods (WR, LAR)

Week 2 Stats: 2 targets, 2 catches, 33 yards

LA Rams wide receiver Robert Woods came up extremely small on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. Although Woods didn’t produce for fantasy purposes, he led all Rams wide receivers playing on 98.6% of the offensive snaps. Meanwhile, it was Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks rewarding owners with touchdowns. In fairness to Woods, he had a touchdown catch taken off the board due to a questionable holding penalty.

Bottom Line: There are three mouths to feed in the Rams receiving corps, and bad fantasy performances are bound to happen from time to time. If a fantasy owner in your league is panicking because Woods didn’t produce in Week 2, this is a buy-low situation.

 

Josh Gordon (WR, NE)

Week 2 Stats: 5 targets, 2 catches, 19 yards

The New England Patriots looked to get newly acquired Antonio Brown involved in Week 2 against the Dolphins as Tom Brady clearly looked his way in the red zone. Although it's likely that Brown's presence will hurt Gordon's fantasy production, Gordon did see an increase in snaps from Week 1 to Week 2, going from 70% to 79.2%.

Bottom Line: The Patriots ran the ball more than they threw it in Week 2 in the blowout win over the Dolphins, so it's too early to tell if Gordon will disappear now that Brown has been added to the roster. If Brown's legal situation lands him with a suspension, then Gordon's fantasy status will be elevated. If Brown is not suspended, we really need to pay attention to snap rates and target share against an opponent other than Miami. Don't panic with Gordon just yet, but if you receive a comparable trade offer for Gordon (James White, Mike Williams, Cooper Kupp) you should strongly consider it. Gordon should only be in your fantasy lineup if he has a good cornerback matchup until we have more data with Brown in the picture.

 

Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)

Week 2 Stats: 16 carries, 37 yards, 6 targets, 2 catches, 16 yards

After Carolina's Week 2 game against the Buccaneers, the common narrative around NFL circles was that Cam Newton is injured and can no longer throw the ball downfield. Newton quietly threw for 333-scoreless yards against the Buccaneers, and part of the reason he was able to do so (as inaccurate as he was) is because the Buccaneers keyed on stopping McCaffrey.

Bottom Line: Don't panic with McCaffrey, he is still the focal point of the Panthers offense and he will rebound. Do not sell low in a trade.

 

Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)

Week 2 Stats: 11 carries, 17 yards, 5 targets, 3 catches, 10 yards

Joe Mixon is off to an extremely slow start for the Cincinnati Bengals. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Bengals have been without their starting left tackle Cordy Glenn. In Glenn’s absence, Andre Smith has performed very poorly, as he’s not athletic enough to block on the edge. In Week 2, Mixon had several chunk plays called back during critical moments of the game when the score was still close. These holding penalties not only negated big gains and first downs, but they put the Bengals in a hole and crippled any momentum their offense had.

Bottom Line: Things will get better for Mixon because they can’t get any worse. He played through his ankle injury and looked good running the ball. When Cordy Glenn returns to the starting lineup, the Bengals rushing attack should be much improved. Mixon is a prime buy-low player right now.

 

George Kittle (TE, SF)

Week 2 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 54 yards

Kittle is currently not living up to expectations based on where you likely drafted him as TE14 through the first two weeks of the season. Against the Bengals in Week 2, the 49ers ran the ball 42 times and only put the ball in the air 26 times. Even though the 49ers didn't need to throw it a lot to beat the Bengals, George Kittle still registered as TE11 on the week.

Bottom Line: Kittle has underwhelmed early, but the 49ers have been winning in convincing fashion. As a result, Jimmy Garoppolo has only needed to put the ball in the air a total of 53 times through two games. For context, Andy Dalton threw the ball 51 times in Week 1 alone. The moment things get competitive for San Francisco, Kittle will start getting targeted more.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

2020 Outfield Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

We've been breaking down rankings for points leagues over the last couple of weeks in order to prepare fantasy owners for draft day. To check out previous analysis articles by position, click the following links: first base, second base, third base, shortstop, catcher, starting pitcher, relief pitcher. Outfield is obviously the deepest of all positions... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis - Luis Robert vs Kyle Tucker

With spring training games officially underway, excitement around the fantasy baseball season simultaneously hits a new peak. As batting orders begin to map out and pitching rotations start to take shape, a lot of movement happens on ADP lists. Prospects tend to gain the most helium around this time of year because we have a... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Josh Lindblom

Josh Lindblom began his professional baseball career at 21-years-old in the Dodgers’ minor league system more than a decade ago, but the pitcher was never able to gain a foothold in the major leagues. Over his career so far, Lindblom has thrown 147 major league innings to go along with 497.1 minor league innings, owning... Read More


Four More Sleeper Prospects for 2020 Redraft Leagues

MLB Spring Training is here. The sights and sounds of baseball are everywhere. That also means fantasy baseball season is just around the corner. And with that comes hundreds of minor league players with dreams of breaking into the major leagues during the coming season. Many will. But others will not. Last week, we took... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Jo Adell

The most coveted type of player in fantasy baseball is the batter who can hit home runs, steal bases and hit for contact. Stolen bases are harder to find, as more big-league teams are opting to take a cautious approach to baserunning. Additionally, batting average has declined because hitters are striking out more often, as... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis - Gleyber Torres vs. Corey Seager

Fantasy baseball players acquire draft position through osmosis. The more drafts that take place, the larger sample we gain of how owners of all experience levels feel about someone. Granted, inexperienced players often rely on rankings from experts, which goes to form ADP into something resembling common rankings, but the outcome is unimpeachable, collected data... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis – Aaron Nola vs Lance Lynn

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More


2020 Regression Candidates: Breakout Outfielders

Every season in MLB you can count on the fact that you will have breakout performances from players. Sometimes these breakout performances can be seen coming a mile away and sometimes they catch you entirely by surprise. Regardless of which type of breakout we see, you will almost always have to pay up for that... Read More


Bases Loaded Podcast - Quality Start Episode 1

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) and Matt Williams (@MattWi77iams) of the Turn Two Podcast come together for a new co-pod series called "Quality Start". This will be a joint effort and episodes will be found on Bases Loaded as well as the Turn Two Podcast. We are joined by Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) as well for this one.... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Adrian Houser

In life, there seem to be two kinds of people, the flashy and the boring. “Flashy” people like high-end materialistic things such as nice clothing or an expensive car. "Boring” people prefer the simpler things in life like spending time with their loved ones. This seems to be true when it comes to fantasy baseball,... Read More


Taking Out the Trash: Pitchers Who Should Junk Their Worst Pitch

Pitch mix changes can make or break a player’s season. That obviously goes for fantasy value as well as real-life. We've already seen how throwing an effective pitch more often could make a huge improvement a la Patrick Corbin. Sometimes pitchers just need to eliminate a pitch to see their numbers improve. Consider the following: Mitch... Read More


ADP Showdown – Trevor Story vs. Trea Turner

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported and position player workouts are getting underway, which means baseball season is officially upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


Bases Loaded Podcast - All Things Fantasy Baseball w/ Nick Pollack (@PitcherList)

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is  joined by Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) and they discuss all things fantasy baseball! Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune... Read More