RADIO
Hi, y'all... Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone! Congrats to everyone who has made it this far in their fantasy leagues. Fifteen weeks of NFL action are in the books, and for most of us it's time for the fantasy football championships! Welcome to our Week 16 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football.
This week we'll be analyzing every game from the Friday, Saturday and Sunday slates, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will be covering the entire Saturday slate along with a few of the early Sunday games, while Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. You can also read about the Friday afternoon Christmas Day matchups and Monday Night Football matchups as well. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts, and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that Week 16 victory!
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady is in a smash spot against a Lions Defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA. This defense is giving up 25.2 fantasy points per game (T-25th) to quarterbacks and just allowed 37.02 fantasy points to Ryan Tannehill (QB3). The Bucs have an implied total of 30.75 points, so we can expect Brady to provide strong production in this one. We can fire up Brady as a high-floor QB1 with upside this week.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Fournette should reprise his role as bellcow with Ronald Jones likely out for another week. While Fournette was inefficient, he played 66.18% of the snaps and had 19 opportunities (14 carries, 5 targets). Fournette scored twice last week and he'll have a chance to find the endzone once again in this terrific matchup. The Lions rank 26th in rush DVOA, allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Fournette is an upside RB2.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
The Bucs wide receivers are in a great spot against a Lions defense allowing 41.4 fantasy points per game to the position (28th). It's tough to decide which receiver is the best play because of how Brady spreads the ball around, so I'll defer to the player with the most touchdown equity. Evans leads the Bucs with a 24.64% red-zone target share and this is a game where he'll have several opportunities to find the endzone.
Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
Since Week 6, Jones ranks as WR15 in fantasy points per game. The Bucs have a pass-funnel defense, allowing the third-most pass attempts this season. They have given up 40.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (25th). The Lions are 8-point underdogs in a game with a 53.5-point total, so we can expect them to air it out here. We can fire up Jones as an upside WR2/WR3.
Other Matchups:
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Godwin has a great matchup, but he doesn't have the same upside as Evans. Godwin has put up 12.7 fantasy points per game (WR36) since Week 9. His average depth of target is 8.4 yards, so even though he leads the team with a 18.58% target share, these aren't high-upside targets. Godwin remains in play as a WR3, but I would temper your expectations given his established role with Brady at the helm.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
Brown is coming off a big week where he caught 5-of-7 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. He has a higher upside but lower floor than Godwin here. We do know that Brady really wants to keep Brown involved in this offense, so perhaps he'll be fed targets in this plus matchup. Consider Brown a risky WR3 with upside this week.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Since Brown joined the team in Week 9, Gronk is averaging 8.1 fantasy points per game, ranking as TE15 during that span. There's simply too many mouths to feed in this offense. The good news is that Gronk has touchdown equity, ranking 2nd on the team with a 18.84% red-zone target share. He's a touchdown-dependent TE1 this week.
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford played through injury last week, putting up 252 yards and a touchdown on 32 attempts (7.88 Y/A). There's a chance for high volume in this game against the Bucs pass-funnel defense, which puts Stafford in play as a streamer. The Bucs are allowing 24.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (25th).
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift has a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that ranks 2nd in rush DVOA, allowing only 3.12 yards per carry (1st). The good news is that Swift should see enough volume to remain a strong RB2 in this projected shootout. Last week, Swift handled 64.62% of the snaps and received 20 opportunities (15 carries, 5 targets). We can expect Swift to remain a significant part of the passing game this week, so he's a lukewarm play despite the tough matchup.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson is coming off a dud where he caught 2-of-4 targets for 18 yards. We could see Stafford make an effort to get him more involved this week, which is good news in a game that projects as a shootout with high passing volume. The Bucs have allowed 14.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends (26th).
Player Notes:
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB): If he's able to play, it's hard to say if he'll have a reduced role, so consider him an upside RB2 in the plus matchup.
UPDATE: Ronald Jones has officially been ruled out.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray found his groove last week, putting up 34.14 fantasy points (QB4) against the Eagles. The 49ers rank 13th in pass DVOA and have allowed 20.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (7th). This defense has given up the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, so this is an opportunity for Kyler to make an impact on the ground. He's returned to form and should be considered a Top-5 QB this week.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Hopkins has also picked it up lately, catching 26-of-35 targets for 360 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games. The 49ers are allowing 35.0 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (11th), but that shouldn't matter too much with Hopkins' volume (29.24% target share). We can safely consider Nuk as an elite WR1 in this matchup.
Other Matchups:
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF)
Jeff Wilson is expected to carry the load for the 49ers this week with Raheem Mostert on the shelf, but we all know how Kyle Shanahan is unpredictable with his running back usage. There's risk that he'll use Tevin Coleman or Jerick McKinnon, which makes Wilson a FLEX play against a Cardinals Defense that ranks 14th in run DVOA.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk has established himself as a certified stud, ranking as WR3 in fantasy points per game since Week 7. In his last five games, he's caught 45-of-69 targets for 568 yards and four touchdowns. Since Deebo Samuel's injury in Week 14, Aiyuk has posted a 34.12% target share. The Cardinals rank 9th in pass DVOA and have allowed 39.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (T-22nd). The one risk here is that he sees less targets with C.J. Beathard at quarterback. George Kittle's return will also eat into Aiyuk's target share, so we need to temper our expectations.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
George Kittle is set to return to the lineup, just in time for championship week. While he's expected to be on a snap count, I would still start him over every tight end besides Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Mark Andrews. The Cardinals have allowed then fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but Kittle is matchup-proof. Fire him up as a Top-5 TE1 this week.
Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI)
After dominating the workload in recent weeks, it was concerning to see Drake out-touched by Chase Edmonds 14-12 against the Eagles. Despite his recent success, Drake has remained inefficient, totaling 362 yards on 92 carries (3.93 YPC) since the Week 8 bye. There's a chance that this game is a positive game script with the Cards as 4-point home favorites, which keeps Drake in play as a FLEX option, but temper your expectations because the 49ers rank 7th in run DVOA.
Player Notes:
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI): Nothing more than a dart throw in DFS tournaments.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Ahmed carried the load in his return to the lineup, totaling 122 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries (5.3 YPC) against the Patriots last week, but Gaskin is back this week and we can expect him to retake his lead role. Gaskin has a plus matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in rush DVOA. You can fire him up as an RB2 with upside in this game.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs has a great matchup against a Dolphins Defense that ranks 24th in run DVOA. Last week, he totaled 29 opportunities against the Chargers. This is encouraging because it shows some evidence that the Raiders may become even more run-heavy with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Mariota's rushing ability should also open up running lanes for Jacobs. Fire him up as an RB1.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller is currently on a torrid stretch that would make Travis Kelce blush, catching 29-of-39 targets for 425 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. He's the only tight end that could match Kelce's upside, so we have to fire him up as a Top-2 option, even against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Derek Carr has a chance to return for this game, but Marcus Mariota targeted Waller often when he took over, so the change at quarterback does not concern me at all.
Matchups We Hate:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
The Raiders (29th) and Dolphins (25th) are two of the slowest paced teams in neutral game scripts. This is not the game to stream Tua, despite a plus matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA. Tua has not shown enough upside to warrant a start in championship week. He's only an option as a contrarian play in DFS tournaments.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
Parker is expected to return this week, just in time to face a Raiders defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA and has allowed 25.5 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (23rd). Having said that, we still need to temper our expectations with Tua at QB. It's hard to get excited about a banged-up Parker in a run-heavy offense.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker has officially been ruled out.
Raiders QBs
Not only do the Raiders play at a slow-pace, but they're also the seventh-most run-heavy team in neutral game scripts. Mariota looked good in relief last week, but now he takes on a Dolphins defense that ranks 5th in pass DVOA. If you're gambling on him, you're hoping that he makes plays with his legs, which is possible, but I'm only considering him in DFS tournaments. If Carr plays, I would also avoid him against this tough pass defense.
UPDATE: Derek Carr is off the injury report, and should be good to go.
Nelson Agholor (WR, LV)
Agholor has totaled 29 targets in his last three games, but he's facing a tough pass defense with potentially a new quarterback, so it's tough to like his situation this week. We could see the Raiders go even more run-heavy than usual with Mariota at quarterback. Even if Carr plays, I wouldn't consider using Agholor in any format in this matchup.
Other Matchups:
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki is also projected to play. He was really coming on nicely before his injury, totaling 14 receptions, 153 yards, and three touchdowns in his previous two games. Gesicki is starting to emerge as Tua's favorite target and he's a Top-10 option at tight end.
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team
Matchups We Love:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson has returned to practice, putting him in line to play in a plus matchup against a Panthers Defense that ranks 22nd in run DVOA. This team just got gashed on the ground by Aaron Jones and we can expect a similar gameplan from Washington with their talented rookie running back. Fire up Gibson as an RB2 with upside in this one. I wouldn't consider J.D. McKissic as anything more than a desperation FLEX in PPR formats if Gibson ends up playing.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Thomas is on quite the roll right now, combining for 28 receptions, 242 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. He takes on a Panthers defense that is tied for 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. We can expect Haskins to continue to pepper Thomas with targets, so we have to fire him up as a Top-10 TE.
Matchups We Hate:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater has a tough matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA. Since Week 11, this defense is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have given up 14.4 points per game during that span. This is a game with a 44-point total, so it's best to stay away from any fringe options like Bridgewater.
Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
Washington is a bit more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 13th in run DVOA, but since Week 11, they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Davis only played 53.62% of the snaps last week, totaling 16 opportunities, so he's not getting the same type of volume that he received earlier in the season, especially in the passing game. Davis looks more like a touchdown-dependent FLEX in this game.
Other Matchups:
Panthers WRs
This game projects to be low-scoring, making it tough to see a scenario where more than one Panthers wide receiver provides strong production. During this torrid stretch, the Washington defense ranks 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. We can classify these receivers like this: D.J. Moore (volatile WR2/3), Robby Anderson (solid WR3), and Curtis Samuel (upside WR4).
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin is a stud who got back on track with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback, catching 7-of-12 targets for 77 yards against the Seahawks. The Panthers just held Davante Adams in check for seven receptions and 42 yards, so we need temper our expectations, especially since McLaurin is currently nursing an ankle injury. Consider McLaurin more of an upside WR3 in this game.
UPDATE: Terry McLaurin is officially listed as doubtful.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Matchups We Love:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Baker Mayfield has been phenomenal in his last four games, completing 99-of-141 passes (70.2%) for 1,232 yards (8.74 Y/A), 10 touchdowns, and one interception. He's shown a high upside this season, with three games of 25+ fantasy points. Mayfield has a great opportunity to keep it rolling against a Jets Defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Fire him up with confidence.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry is on fire right now, catching 29-of-38 targets for 318 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games, ranking as WR11 in fantasy points per game during that span. He's in a smash spot against a Jets defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Consider Landry a solid WR2 in this matchup.
UPDATE: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones have all been placed on the COVID-19 list and will not play this week. Marvin Hall is expected to be the #1 wide receiver.
Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE)
Higgins has really come on in his last three games, catching 16-of-24 targets for 239 yards and two touchdowns, ranking as WR15 in fantasy points per game during that span. He's an upside WR3 in a game where there's a decent chance that he gets loose deep against this porous Jets' secondary.
UPDATE: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones have all been placed on the COVID-19 list and will not play this week. Marvin Hall is expected to be the #1 wide receiver.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Hooper returned to the lineup last week and had a solid game, catching 5-of-6 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. He's a Top-12 tight end play in a strong matchup against a Jets defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position.
Matchups We Hate:
Frank Gore (RB, NYJ)
Gore received a ton of volume in last week's win over the Rams, totaling 59 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, but I'm not about to trust a 37-year old running back in a terrible offense in championship week, no matter what the matchup is. Gore is an inefficient plodder at this stage of his career, so you can safely leave him on your bench.
Jets WRs
Jamison Crowder came alive last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 66 yards, but he's merely a WR4 with limited upside. Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims are strictly DFS tournament dart-throws that you hope can catch a long touchdown. I wouldn't consider using any of these receivers in championship week.
Other Matchups:
Browns RBs
The Browns running backs are in a positive game script with the team as 9.5-point favorites, but the Jets run defense has been solid this season, ranking 8th in run DVOA, so we need to temper our expectations. You're still firing up Nick Chubb as a low-end RB1 and Kareem Hunt as an upside FLEX, but I lean more towards the Browns' passing game in this one.
Player Notes:
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE): Great pivot play from other Browns WRs in DFS tournaments.
UPDATE: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones have all been placed on the COVID-19 list and will not play this week. Marvin Hall is expected to be the #1 wide receiver.
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson has found his groove to help you win your league, ranking as QB1 in fantasy points per game in the last three games. He's rushed for 253 yards and four touchdowns on 32 carries during that span. The Giants Defense has been solid this season, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but we have to fire up Lamar has a Top-5 quarterback with the way that he's playing right now.
Ravens RBs
J.K. Dobbins has led the running backs in snaps (51.38%) and opportunities (39) in the last four weeks, with Gus Edwards (37.87% of snaps, 35 opportunities) taking the complementary role. Mark Ingram has been phased out of this offense, which is great news for the fantasy outlook of this backfield. The Giants defense ranks 15th in run DVOA, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. We can fire up Dobbins as a RB2 and use Edwards as a desperation FLEX.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews has turned it up of late, catching 22-of-27 targets for 301 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games, ranking as TE5 during that span. We can trust Andrews as a Top-5 option at tight end against a Giants defense that is tied for 15th in fantasy points allowed to the position this season. Andrews is the only tight end who can approach the upside of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and George Kittle. Fire him up with confidence.
Matchups We Hate:
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
Gallman has really slowed down the last two weeks, totaling 86 yards on the ground and 16 yards in the air, ranking as RB47 in fantasy points per game during that span. The Ravens rank 6th in run DVOA, making this a matchup to avoid for the Giants' lead runner. I wouldn't trust Gallman in your fantasy championship.
Giants WRs
The Giants offense is a dumpster fire right now, so there's no way that you can even consider using Darius Slayton or Sterling Shepard, even with Golden Tate dealing with a calf injury. The Ravens rank 11th in pass DVOA, making this a tough matchup. I wouldn't even consider these receivers as contrarian plays in DFS tournaments.
Other Matchups:
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Brown has come alive during Lamar's hot stretch, catching 17-of-29 targets for 272 yards and three touchdowns in the last four games, ranking as WR18 during that span. Giants top cornerback James Bradberry missed last week after landing on the COVID reserve list, but we can expect him to return for this game, which makes Brown a risky WR3, so temper your expectations.
UPDATE: Hollwood Brown was added to the injury report with a knee injury late in the week.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram has started to be used differently in recent weeks. From Weeks 1-9, he posted a 5.6 aDOT, but in the last six weeks, he's put up a 9.7 aDOT. Using one of the more athletic tight ends in the league as a downfield target was something that should have been done since Week 1, but at least the change has finally happened. Engram is the only startable option in this offense against a Ravens Defense that ranks 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Matchups We Love:
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
Bernard is in a great spot against a Texans Defense that ranks 29th in run DVOA, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Bernard received a season-high of 26 touches, as the Bengals went run-heavy with Ryan Finley at the helm. Expect them to continue to go with a run-centric approach with Finley projected to start once again.
David Johnson (RB, HOU)
Johnson had a big game in his return to the lineup last week, all 11 of his targets for 106 yards. Perhaps the Texans have finally realized that they need to use him in the passing game more. The Bengals Defense ranks 17th in run DVOA, allowing 4.87 yards per carry (T-29th). I expect DJ to be the focal point of this Texans offense in this game.
Other Matchups:
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Tyler Boyd has a chance to miss this game, which would put Higgins in a great spot as the clear-cut top option for the Bengals in a plus matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA. Having said that, Finley attempted only 13 passes last week, so it's tough to rely on the volume here. I'd prefer using Higgins as a DFS tournament play this week. Consider him an upside WR4.
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Watson is in a good spot against a Bengals defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA, but he ranks as QB13 in fantasy points per game without Will Fuller (three games), so it's hard to rely on him as anything more than a low-end QB1, especially in a game with a 45-point total.
Texans WRs
I'd consider each of the Texans wide receivers as the following: Brandin Cooks (WR3), Keke Coutee (low-upside WR4), and Chad Hansen (DFS dart-throw). They have a good matchup against a Bengals defense that ranks 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers, but I wouldn't be too excited about playing either of them.
Player Notes:
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN): Has been in the concussion protocol, and was officially ruled out.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
I mean, it's Patrick Mahomes, y'all. You're starting him as the overall QB1 every week, especially with the Chiefs missing Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week and likely relying even more on their passing attack. Oh, and the Falcons allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so there's another added bonus. I'm all in on Mahomes in DFS too.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Assuming Jones plays, Ridley is still a high-end WR2 who has all the upside in the world, especially if Jones is limited. If Jones doesn't play, Ridley is a must-start WR1.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill can turn any matchup into a WR1 finish, so I think I'll trust him to do that against the defense allowing the second-most points to the position.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
The Falcons have allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends. How high will that number be after Sunday? Kelce is the overall TE1, even with George Kittle playing in Week 16.
Matchups We Hate:
Todd Gurley II, Ito Smith (RB, ATL)
Committee! Smith is now the lead back and has a good matchup, but Gurley should get enough snaps to hinder Smith's upside, making him a risky RB3 option. With a fantasy title on the line, I'd probably avoid him.
Other Matchups:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
It's been a down year for Ryan, who has one or fewer touchdown passes in eight games so far. But he is coming off his best performance in awhile, with 356 yards and three scores against Tampa last week. This game against Kansas City should be a shootout, but Ryan's struggles throughout this season are enough reason to worry about him. He's a fine QB2 play, but there's risk.
Le'Veon Bell (RB, KC)
With no Clyde Edwards-Helaire available, Bell will serve as the lead back against a Falcons Defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. I think Bell is a fine play and his receiving ability helps too, but there's enough reason for caution to keep him out of most of my DFS lineups this weekend.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
If we knew he was 100 percent healthy, he'd be a solid WR1 play because he's Julio and because this is going to be a game where the Falcons throw a lot. But even if Jones plays, I'm not sure how much I trust him this week. He'd probably be a fine WR2 play with upside, but it's not a guarantee.
UPDATE: Julio Jones has officially been ruled out.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL)
Completely dependent on what happens with Julio. If Jones is out, I love Gage as a sneaky FLEX play due to an increase in targets. If Jones plays, I probably wouldn't have Gage in any lineups.
Sammy Watkins (WR, KC)
While the risk of Watkins disappearing always exists, he's now seen six or more targets in three of his four games since returning from injury, and the Falcons hemmorage fantasy points to receivers. Love Watkins as a GPP play, even if I'm always going to be hesitant about him in season-long.
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Meh. Hurst is what he is: a volatile producer who really needs a touchdown to have a strong day. The Chiefs have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends, so Hurst is fine as a TE2 play or a streamer for someone desperate.
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
With 100-plus yards in three of the last four games and five touchdowns in his last three games, David Montgomery has finally arrived. The Jaguars are terrible against the run, so deploy Montgomery as an RB1 this week.
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
It would suck to face Trubisky this week in a Superflex league championship game, wouldn't it? (I'm so excited to lose a league where I've been atop the standings since Week 1!) Anyway, the Jags allow the second-most fantasy points to QBs and Trubisky has been playing some solid football since reclaiming the starting role. He probably doesn't finish as a top 10 quarterback, but he's going to be in that 11-15 range and will do so at a really nice DFS salary.
Allen Robinson II (WR, CHI)
Against a bad pass defense last week, Robinson had four catches for 83 yards and a touchdown -- so not the greatest day, but not bad either. He's hit the 70-yard mark in seven of the past eight games and should do so again against Jacksonville. Consider him a low-end WR1 with the upside to have an explosive game.
Matchups We Hate:
D.J. Chark Jr. (WR, JAC)
If I'm starting a Jaguars wide receiver, it isn't Chark, who has crashed lately. His four catches for 53 yards were his best numbers since Week 10, and he's taken a clear backseat to other options in this receiving game. I'm not sure I'd start Keelan Cole Sr. either, but I definitely wouldn't put my fantasy title hopes in Chark's hands right now.
Other Matchups:
Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAC)
I don't love Minshew as much as Trubisky this week, but I would be perfectly happy with him in 2-QB league this week. Jacksonville's passing offense fell off a cliff with Minshew out, but he hasn't thrown a pick since returning and last week had 226 yards and two touchdowns against a good Ravens Defense.
UPDATE: Mike Glennon will start this week over Garner Minshew.
James Robinson (RB, JAC)
Remember when Adam Schefter tweeted that Robinson was out this week then deleted it and tweeted that he was just not practicing all week? Yeah, that was scary. Robinson has been the biggest surprise of 2020, and if he plays this week he's a high-end RB2 at worst even against a good defense because of his volume. But I am more worried than I'd usually be since he's banged up and not practicing.
UPDATE: James Robinson has officially been ruled out. Dare Ogunbowale is expected to act as the lead back with Devine Ozigbo in the mix as well.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
The Jaguars allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends and Kmet appears to have passed Jimmy Graham for good in Chicago. He has a zero-floor, but also is a nice TE2 streaming option due to the matchup.
Tyler Eifert (TE, JAC)
Speaking of tight ends you might be able to stream this week, Eifert is a name. The Bears have struggled against the position, allowing the second-most fantasy points on the season. Eifert isn't exciting but should get a handful of opportunities.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchups We Love:
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
The Steelers offense has struggled the last two weeks, but Johnson has 12 catches and a touchdown over that span. His yardage is down because the passing game is hurting in Pittsburgh, but Johnson is getting enough targets to make him a solid WR2 play against a middle-of-the-road Colts Defense.
Matchups We Hate:
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
You have a fantasy championship at stake. Don't play Rivers against the Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
Roethlisberger has fallen apart. The Colts Defense is susceptible to big passing games, but Ben has five straight games with an interception and two or fewer touchdowns, plus consecutive games with under 200 yards.
James Conner (RB, PIT)
The Colts have been (mostly) strong against the run lately and Conner -- who didn't play last week -- has been mostly bad in terms of posting numbers, with under 50 yards in four of the last five games that he's played. His return in Week 14 after missing time saw him total 18 yards. He's an RB2/3 option with enormous risk, and if he doesn't play then Benny Snell Jr. is essentially in the same boat as the starter, though with maybe a tad more upside.
Tight Ends
The Colts trio of Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, and Mo Alie-Cox has a terrible matchup and there's too little separation between the three for one guy to stand out. On the Steelers side, Eric Ebron had a back injury and will likely be out, putting Vance McDonald into the starting role. You aren't playing McDonald in Week 16.
Other Matchups:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
While Taylor has been hot lately -- in the past four games, he's averaging 17.8 carries for 103.5 yards per contest with three touchdowns -- I can't trust him too much against this stout Steelers front seven. He's a fine RB2 play, but don't be too surprised if he posts his worst result in a month.
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
Hilton is back to being the good version of T.Y. Hilton! But I'd temper expectations some against this Steelers secondary, even if Hilton now has 71 or more yards in four consecutive games and four touchdowns in the last four. The upside is here, but the matchup makes him more of a WR2/3 play, with a lean towards the WR3 side.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
Smith-Schuster had just 15 yards last week and has mostly struggled over the past six games, though he did find the end zone against Buffalo. The matchup is good enough to play him as a WR3, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot from him.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert was picked off twice in the first meeting between these teams, one of two times he's thrown multiple picks. But he also had three touchdowns, and the Broncos passing defense has struggled this season and is extremely injured right now. Herbert can be safely started as a QB1.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Drew Lock likes Noah Fant. I like Noah Fant. We all like Noah Fant, right? He was targeted nine times in the first meeting of these teams and is the one Broncos skill position player you can trust. Play him as a TE1.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
A (probably) healthy Ekeler should end up leading this backfield again, with Kalen Ballage taking a backseat. The Broncos have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to opposing backs this season and while they've limited the impact backs have had in the receiving game, it might be hard to limit Ekeler's impact this week. Consider him an RB1 play.
Matchups We Hate:
Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)
A 55-yard touchdown made his first game against the Chargers look better than it was. Since that game, Lindsay has just one performance where he rushed for over 38 yards, and he hasn't found the end zone since either. Hard to really justify playing Lindsay this week.
Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler (WR, DEN)
Am I slightly interested in Drew Lock? Sure. But none of his receivers has really established himself as the go-to option for Denver, so while Lock could be a sneaky play, his receivers all rate as WR4s at best, which isn't really the kind of guy I want to start on championship weekend.
Other Matchups:
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
Lock has 151 yards or fewer in two of the last three games but sandwiched in between was a four-touchdown effort against the Panthers. He had three touchdowns the first time he faced the Chargers. Look: in season-long leagues with a championship on the line, you shouldn't play Lock, but he is someone I'd be willing to get weird with and start in some GPPs.
Melvin Gordon III (RB, DEN)
Gordon has established himself as this team's best running back, and while he had just 26 yards in the first meeting of these teams, he's been rising over the past three games and found the end zone twice against Buffalo. If I'm trusting a Denver running back as my RB2, it's Gordon.
Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Both guys were limited in terms of snaps last week, and could be again this week. While I think you have to keep playing Allen in season-long for his upside, and you can make a good case to play Williams too for upside against Denver, the risk involved with both makes them guys you might want to pivot off of in DFS.
Donald Parham (TE, LAC)
With Hunter Henry (COVID list) out, Parham will be the lead tight end. The XFL legend had a couple touchdown catches earlier in the year but hasn't done much this season aside from that. But with Henry out, Parham has TE2 value and will be super cheap in DFS.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
*rubs hands together maniacally* Jalen Hurts against this Dallas defense, you say? A mobile quarterback who also threw for 338 yards last week? Hurts is a high-end QB1 play this week, though there's always some risk that comes with starting rookie passers with a fantasy title on the line.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Know what's bad? The Cowboys run defense, as they've allowed the second-most rushing yards to the position. Though they've been better at preventing receptions by the position, Sanders doesn't need to be involved in the passing game to make an impact this week. Consider him a solid RB1 option.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
In two games with Hurts at QB, Goedert has been targeted 14 times. He hasn't been as productive as you'd like him to be on that kind of volume, but he has clear TE1 upside and is a must-start unless you've got Kelce or Waller or you want to take the big risk on Kittle.
Matchups We Hate:
Eagles Receivers
Greg Ward Jr. keeps finding the end zone, but overall it's tough to trust him, Jalen Reagor, or Alshon Jeffery as more than WR4 plays due to how much more the Eagles are running the ball with Hurts under center.
Other Matchups:
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL)
Not a bad play, though there are streamers I'd rather have. Dalton has thrown two touchdowns in each of the past three games and while the volume for him isn't what you might want, the Eagles having the second-fewest interceptions in the NFL is a nice plus for him.
Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
This is dependent on Zeke returning from a calf injury that kept him out last week. If he's back, he and Pollard will split touches, limiting both players upside and making them RB2/3 plays in a matchup that should allow for some solid production on the ground. If Zeke misses this week, upgrade Pollard dramatically and expect high-end RB2 production.
Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Cooper has mostly played well all season, and he should be able to provide WR2 value this week, though last week's stinker (two catches for 10 yards) does scare us. Lamb has had some uneven rookie-year production but has been getting six-plus targets each week, making him a solid play if you need a WR3/4.
Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
I'm separating Gallup out because he suffered a hip injury last week, so while he has WR4 potential if he plays, we have to keep an eye on him as Sunday approaches.
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
Ertz is no longer the best tight end in Philly. He had two catches for 69 yards last week, but he hasn't had more than two catches in a game since returning in Week 13. If you need a streamer and Ertz has been dropped in your league, he's a boom/bust guy.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Matchups We Love:
I, uhh, guess I don't love anyone in this matchup?
Matchups We Hate:
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Lockett continues to post disappointing numbers. Since the 200-yard explosion in Week 7, he's averaging 47.3 yards per game on 40 total catches. Did he just use all his juice up in that game? I really, really don't want a fantasy title resting on his shoulders this week.
Tight Ends
This is not a game where I'm targeting tight ends.
Other Matchups:
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Goff had 302 yards in a win over Seattle earlier in the season, though he didn't find the end zone. Still, he was able to get a lot of yards on just 37 passes in that one. He has too much volatility for me to trust him as a QB1 this week, but he's definitely a high-end QB2 play.
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Take away the Week 14 Jets game, and the other three most-recent Seattle games have seen Wilson throw for exactly one touchdown in each contest. He had just 121 yards against Washington last week, and when he last faced the Rams threw zero touchdowns and two picks. You can't just bench Wilson in season-long leagues, but you should adjust your expectations for him.
Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown (RB, LAR)
Both guys have some nice upside this week, but I wouldn't feel too confident in either of them. Brown has the best chance of finding the end zone. Henderson has the best chance of getting a lot of yards. I wish we could combine the two of them into someone who'd have high-end RB2 value, but we can't.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
He's too good to ignore, but the Rams allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, so temper your expectations.
Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Even if I don't love the matchup for their quarterback -- his occasional lack of touchdown passes hurts him -- I think you have to keep start Woods and Kupp as WR2 options, even if Kupp has struggled in more games than he hasn't this season.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Assuming Metcalf is healthy, he's a must-start, but he had just two catches for 28 yards in the first meeting of these teams and hurt himself a little in Week 15. He's more of a WR2 than he'd usually be.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
I know Derrick Henry gets all the attention in Tennessee, but can we talk about how Ryan Tannehill is very good at football? Three consecutive multi-touchdown games, plus a 9.0 AY/A and 110.4 quarterback rating this year. Green Bay's raw numbers against the pass look good, but I still have Tannehill rated as a low-end QB1 this week.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
The Titans Defense has been a disaster at times. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and I'm a little shocked it isn't worse. Their 13 interceptions are probably what saves them from ranking up there with the Jets of the world. Consider Rodgers a high-end QB1 play.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Green Bay allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Derrick Henry is Derrick Henry. The end.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
The Titans allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Aaron Jones is not Derrick Henry, but he is an RB1 this week.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Keeping on this "this game will be an offensive explosion" tune, we get Adams, who had his worst game since Week 2 last week. He still caught seven passes for 42 yards. He's a clear WR1 play.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown's second NFL campaign has quietly been excellent, as he has 10 touchdown receptions. You'd like to see more targets for him, but he's producing big time on the targets that he does get and is a low-end WR1.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Need a touchdown? He has 10 of them, including in five consecutive games. He won't give you a lot of yards, but in a game where the Packers should put up a lot of points, it makes plenty of sense to bet on another end zone visit.
Matchups We Hate:
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
I still love Jonnu Smith, but a lack of targets plus the fact Green Bay's best work has been their ability to defend against tight ends has Smith off my streaming radar.
Other Matchups:
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Davis has finally started delivering on his promise, though his volume has been low, even if the yardage is high. For that reason, I'd be more hesitant with him than with other players in this game, though he's still a nice WR3 play with upside.
Allen Lazard (WR, GB)
Good matchup for him, but like with Corey Davis, I'm not sure we can trust the targets enough to play him as more than a WR3.
Matchups Analysis - Friday Afternoon Football
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Click here to read about the Friday afternoon Christmas Day matchups between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchups between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.
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