RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 7 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 6 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 6, our biggest risers were Chase Brown, Jake Ferguson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Xavier Worthy. Our biggest fallers were Brian Robinson Jr., George Pickens, Christian Kirk, and Bijan Robinson. Bijan made us eat crow (albeit against the lowly Panthers), but we were spot on with Brown and Tracy as big-time running back risers.
As a reminder, we won’t highlight the same players two articles in a row. Even though Tracy is one of the biggest risers (again), we highlighted him last week and won’t be doing so in this article. Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 7.
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Week 7 Fantasy Football Risers
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
In his first four games played with Nico Collins, Dell had a first-read target percentage of just 13.3% (per Fantasy Points Data). In his first game without Collins in Week 6, he had the fifth-highest first-read target percentage of all receivers (42.9%). He turned that into seven catches for 57 yards and a touchdown on nine targets.
Stroud finds Dell for an opening drive TD!
📺: #HOUvsNE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/vOTXu7GVvg— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
Dell also posted a season-high 91.4% route participation rate in his first game without Collins this season. Before Week 6, he was averaging a 77.8% route participation rate. The Texans blew out the Patriots this past week, so Dell only ran 32 routes.
Upcoming games against the Packers, Colts, Jets, and Lions could prove extremely fruitful should they remain competitive. Their Week 7 game vs. the Packers currently has an early over/under of 48 points with a spread of just 3.5.
Buy high on Tank Dell given that the Collins hamstring injury could linger throughout the remainder of the season even when he does finally return to action.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
After two mediocre performances against the Cowboys and Bills in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively, Flowers has shown why so many people were high on him coming into the season. In his last two games, he's averaging eight catches for 121.5 yards on 10.5 targets per game. He caught every one of his nine targets in Week 5 against the Commanders.
The wide-angle look at all 9 Zay Flowers catches in the first half against the Commanders. pic.twitter.com/U8lGKmpch2
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 14, 2024
As you can see, he's being schemed touches. Schemed touches and first-read targets usually lead to fantasy points. In the last two weeks, Flowers joins just A.J. Brown and Drake London as the only receivers with a first-read target percentage above 30% with a first downs per route run rate over 0.150 (per Fantasy Points Data). That's some elite company.
Flowers' target share (28.4%) and target rate (25.5%) have both increased in his second season as well. He's firing on all cylinders and appears to be Lamar Jackson's most trusted weapon in the passing game.
Next up is a potential shootout in prime time against the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. The Ravens have an early implied total of 26 points in that one.
J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins continues to dominate touches in the Chargers backfield. That continued in Week 6 with Gus Edwards on the shelf for the next four games while on injured reserve (IR). He ripped off 96 rushing yards and a touchdown on a career-high 25 carries.
J.K. Dobbins reaches for SIX!
📺: #LACvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/rwBlvfaTld— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
That's right, Dobbins has never toted the rock more than 20 times in a game until Week 6 of the 2024 season. That's a big accomplishment for a guy who's battled multiple lower-body injuries in the last three years. And his role is that of an RB1 right now.
J.K. Dobbins is a borderline RB1 the rest of the way.
Yesterday without Gus Edwards (IR):
18.2 fantasy points
73% snaps
68% attempts
47% route participation
7% target shareHad already taken over the job from Edwards over previous three weeks.
Kimani Vidal is a great stash.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 14, 2024
As Dwain points out, rookie Kimani Vidal makes for a great stash now given what the starter role looks like under Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles. Should Dobbins be forced to miss any time, Vidal would most likely step into a similar role. But for the time being, it's the Dobbins show. Up next are two very favorable matchups against the Cardinals and Saints.
Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
Pop appeared to be Drake Maye's favorite target in his first career NFL start. He turned nine targets (29% target share) into 92 yards and a touchdown. Not only did he see nine targets, but he accounted for 33% of the team's first-read targets (per Fantasy Points Data).
Additionally, despite playing a majority of his snaps from the slot (75.3%), Douglas' route participation rate has drastically increased from where it was last season (91.6% vs. 66.9%). He's running more routes and earning more targets in his second season.
With nine targets again in Week 6, Douglas now had nine targets in three of his last four games. He's quickly becoming a target hog in New England and it appears that will only continue with Maye under center. And it looks like their chemistry is building right in front of our eyes!
#Patriots WR DeMario Douglas in the Drake Maye led huddle following his first NFL touchdown:
“Ooo I like this Drake! Ooo he’s got confidence! Uh-oh.” 👀
Something special is cooking up in New England…
(🎥 @Patriots) pic.twitter.com/IzCPVIipCe
— Carlos Talks Pats (@LosTalksPats) October 15, 2024
Other Risers: Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, Evan Engram, Kimani Vidal, Chuba Hubbard
Week 7 Fantasy Football Fallers
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Conner did suffer what appeared to be a minor ankle injury in Week 6. It wasn't widely reported, but his workload was much less as a result. The issue for Conner, however, is that rookie Trey Benson and passing-down specialist Emari Demercado showed they were more than capable in his absence vs. the Packers.
#Cardinals Week 6 RB Usage
- James Conner: 29% snaps, 7 carries, 6 routes, 5 targets (46 yds)
- Emari Demercado: 53% snaps, 4 carries, 19 routes, 7 targets (64 yds)
- Trey Benson: 18% snaps, 5 carries, 0 targets (26 yds)Ankles taped, fumble - week to forget for Conner
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 13, 2024
Maybe it's nothing for Conner, but he also has an injury-riddled past. It wouldn't be shocking to see the Cardinals finally start to get their rookie investment more involved in the coming weeks. When Conner is healthy, we've seen him thrive, even at this point in his career. However, that's a big if now that he's dealing with at least a little something.
Additionally, three of the Cardinals' next four matchups are against above-average defenses (Chargers, Bears, and Jets). That could lead to more Demercado in the passing game as well, especially if Conner isn't 100%.
Keep an eye on the injury report this week for Conner's practice participation, but temper expectations on the veteran back even if he's active in Week 7.
Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts
If it wasn't for a touchdown in Week 5, Sermon would have completely squandered his opportunity with Jonathan Taylor on the shelf in the last two weeks. He's totaled just 67 yards on the ground on 28 rush attempts. That's just 2.4 yards per carry.
In the meantime, Tyler Goodson has looked like the much better back between the two in Taylor's absence. He's averaged 5.9 yards per carry on 13 rush attempts during that stretch. He's also caught seven of eight targets for 45 receiving yards.
Taylor's return-to-play timeline suggests he's close to a return, whether that be in Week 7 or Week 8. Even if he can't go in Week 7, it's hard to imagine the Colts sticking with Sermon over Goodson on early downs given the way both players have performed.
If Kyle Shanahan can't make you look good, nobody can!
While I'm watching Trey Sermon these last two weeks, I can't help but think about how he's the only running back I can remember who didn't look good on Shanahan's 49ers.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) October 13, 2024
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
If not for a fluky flea-flicker touchdown in Week 6, LaPorta would have gone completely scoreless. Believe it or not, that's the first time he's produced double-digit fantasy points in any game this season. On the year, he's averaging just 39.8 receiving yards on three targets per game.
In his rookie season, LaPorta commanded six or more targets in 65% of his games (13 of 20). This season, he has yet to see six targets in a game. One might say it's random, but his role appears to have changed. Per Fantasy Points Data, LaPorta has seen just 9.3% of his team's first-read targets. Last season, that number was 19.9%.
Per PlayerProfiler, LaPorta has also seen a dip in both average depth of target (aDOT) and yards per route run (YPRR) this season. In his rookie season, he had an aDOT of 7.1 yards and a YPRR of 1.78. He posted a target share of 21.1% with an air yards share of 20.9%. Those are some impressive numbers for a rookie. This season, he has an aDOT of 3.6, a YPRR of 1.43, a target share of 10.1%, and an air yards share of 6.3%.
Not to mention the Lions have been man-handling their opponents and have a +60 point differential on the season. That's led to fewer routes run per game for LaPorta compared to last season (25.8 vs. 29.4).
A game against the Vikings in Week 7 might be a "get-right" spot for him being as this could be a high-scoring, competitive matchup, but also understand LaPorta's role looks a lot different than it did a year ago.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Shakir gave it a go in Week 6 despite a bum ankle that sidelined him in Week 5. However, he saw just two targets in the game on just a 38% snap share. Needless to say, he was very limited. It remains to be seen what his usage looks like going forward as a result of the ankle injury.
To make matters worse, the Bills decided after the game vs. the Jets that they needed wide receiver help in a big way. So much so that they decided to trade for Amari Cooper. Cooper has struggled this season in Cleveland, but that doesn't take away the fact that he's been an absolute target hog.
On the season, Cooper has a 27.3% target share as well as the third-highest air yards share among wide receivers at 49.2%. It might take a couple of weeks, but his presence is an obvious hit to the wide receivers in Buffalo, and that includes Shakir.
Shakir does run a lot of his routes from the slot, which could still mean some fantasy-relevant performances, but it'll be hard to trust him as a "set it and forget it" type wide receiver now playing alongside Amari Cooper.
Other Fallers: Tre Tucker, Devin Singletary, Rachaad White, James Cook, Zach Charbonnet, Calvin Ridley
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